enough water for enough food? trends and prospects in water management for agriculture david molden...
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Enough Water for Enough food?Trends and Prospects in Water Management for AgricultureDavid MoldenIWMI
19611963
19651967
19691971
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Food
Sup
ply
(tot
al ca
lorie
s per
capi
ta p
er d
ay)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Threshold for national food security
Developed countries
World
Asia
One liter of water produces one calorie on averageFo
od S
uppl
y in
Cal
orie
s
Will there be enough water?More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production – need to double grain production by 2050
More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double
Something has to change
Investing in Irrigation
Irrigation
Food price index
World Bank lending for irrigation
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
01960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
02010
July 2008
Jan2009
Living Planet indexFreshwater
Irrigation in SSA
Growth in Yields
United States
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan Africa
IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change
It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change.
Key Trends in SSA
Rapid Water Development • Hydropower/energy• Rapid urban growth• The role of China• “Land and Water Grabs”• Private sector – contract farming, markets• Transboundary water concerns• Growth of informal water economies
Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands
1. Improve water productivity (more food/water)– Irrigation systems– Rainfed systems
2. Expand irrigated & rainfed agriculture3. Promote trade from highly productive to less
productive regions4. Manage demand, consume and waste less
Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited.
Get water to poor people, use it better
Improve and Safeguard Water Access
Access to Technologies
Irrigation potential
developed:
Egypt, Morocco,
Somalia, South Africa > 75%
Botswana, Sudan,
Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi,
Uganda 50-75%
Rest < 50%
% Irrigated Land
INDIA: ~50
SSA: 5
Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed Landscapes
Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.
Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture with a range of water management options – pumps, water harvesting, soil moisture, supplemental irrigation, irrigation.
Making it happen
• Seek opportunities:– AWM falls between institutional cracks– Failure to focus on women
• Focus on agriculture, water access, drinking water & hydropower
• Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity
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