emis enquiry: opening presentation - european parliament molden, e… · 20/06/2016 · opening...
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EMIS enquiry:opening presentation
Nick Molden
20 June 2016
2
• Founded in 2011
• Headquartered in UK, with operations in London, Los Angeles and Stuttgart
• Specialist in PEMS testing and data analysis
• 1200+ vehicles tested
• Largest commercially available database of real-world emissions data
• Works with OEMs, Tier 1/2 suppliers, fuel and chemical companies, regulators, consultancies, consumer media
Emissions Analytics’ credentials
TRACKING POLICY EFFECTIVENESS
3
4
• Real-world CO2 is significantly higher than official figures
• Gasoline gap is broadly stable
• Diesel gap was smaller, but has been growing since 2012
CO2 gap
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CO
2ga
p o
ffic
ial v
s re
al-w
orl
d
Year
Gasoline Diesel
5
• Sharply reducing official CO2 figures have given illusion of significant progress
• Real-world reductions much smaller
• Downward trend reversed in 2013 for gasoline, 2015 for diesel
CO2 latest trends in Europe
150.0
155.0
160.0
165.0
170.0
175.0
180.0
185.0
190.0
195.0
200.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Rea
l-w
orl
d C
O2
(g/k
m)
Year
Gasoline Diesel Average
6
• US historically well behind Europe on CO2 reduction
• But, real-world CO2
on increasing trend for gasoline cars in Europe
• Challenging targets having early positive effects in US
• Diesel essential for EU to meet its global CO2 targets?
Europe vs USA
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
280.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rea
l-w
orld
CO
2(g
/km
)
Year
EU gasoline US gasoline EU diesel
7
• Historically, CF ~4 and rising real-world fuel economy
• As many Euro 6 vehicles hit the market in 2014, CF began to fall
• In 2015, real-world fuel economy fell significantly for first time
• Effect particularly of LNT and EGR?
Effect of NOx regulations?
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
44.0
45.0
46.0
47.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Fuel
eco
nom
y (M
PG)
Year
Real-world fuel economy NOx Conformity Factor
8
• Rolling 12-month average of exceedance factor in blue
• Step-change technology launched Q2 to Q3 2014
• No further reduction in Conformity Factor since then
• Average CF dipped to 2.7 in 2014, but risen to back to over 4 since then
NOx latest trends (1)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
02/1
1/20
11
02/0
1/20
12
02/0
3/20
12
02/0
5/20
12
02/0
7/20
12
02/0
9/20
12
02/1
1/20
12
02/0
1/20
13
02/0
3/20
13
02/0
5/20
13
02/0
7/20
13
02/0
9/20
13
02/1
1/20
13
02/0
1/20
14
02/0
3/20
14
02/0
5/20
14
02/0
7/20
14
02/0
9/20
14
02/1
1/20
14
02/0
1/20
15
02/0
3/20
15
02/0
5/20
15
02/0
7/20
15
02/0
9/20
15
02/1
1/20
15
02/0
1/20
16
Co
nfo
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Test date
Euro 5/6 NOx diesel Conformity Factor over time
9
• Earliest Euro 6 vehicles were LNT and EGR-only, but LNT quickly became the majority technology
• More recent switch to SCR
• Nevertheless, good performance achieved by many LNT systems
• Similarly wide spread of performance between LNT and SCR
NOx latest trends (2)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016
Co
nfi
rmit
y Fa
cto
r
Test date
Euro 6 diesel NOx Conformity Factor by after-treatment type
Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)-only Lean NOx trap (LNT) Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
10
• Conformity factor initially 2.1 – 168 mg/km
• Further increased by exclusions due to boundary conditions
• PEMS test-to-test variability of 30%, so OEMs will need to target ~129 mg/km to avoid getting caught by in-service surveillance
• 1 in 5 vehicles already meet this
Will Real Driving Emissions help?
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
14/09/2011 01/04/2012 18/10/2012 06/05/2013 22/11/2013 10/06/2014 27/12/2014 15/07/2015 31/01/2016
Con
form
ity
Fact
or
Test date
Euro 5 Euro 6
EMISSIONS DATABASE
11
12
Segment/fuel ranking
13
Drill-down to individual datasets
EQUA AIR QUALITY INDEX
14
15
• Vehicle rating scheme based on their real-world NOx emissions, launched in April 2016
• Non-statutory complement to new Real Driving Emissions regulations
• But will also
• Discriminate between high and low emitters, rather than just pass/fail
• Be updated for each model year to keep up with new calibrations
• Ratings are published and into the public domain for free
• Manufacturers and consumer media can adopt as independent, voluntary standard
• Similar to New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP, Global NCAP)
Robust, independent standard needed to measure and incentivise actions to bring about air quality improvements
EQUA Air Quality Index
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www.equaindex.com
