ebr dec 2009

What is Vision?

What is Vision?

The Evolving American Vision

The Emerging American Vision

People Turning 65 AnnuallyPeople Turning 65 Annually19961996--20252025

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Y e a r

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sPe

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in Y

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Growth in Households without KidsGrowth in Households without Kids

Household TypeHousehold Type ShareShareWith ChildrenWith Children 12%12%Without ChildrenWithout Children 88%88%SingleSingle--PersonPerson 34%34%

SourceSource: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnswort: Adapted and extrapolated by Chris Nelson from Martha Farnsworth h Riche, Riche, How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will How Changes in the Nation's Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st CenturyReshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD (2003)., HUD (2003).

Unemployment in Baton Rouge

Source: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

9.6 %8.1 %

Aug 2009

Approaching labor shortages

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0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

(in m

illion

s)

Annual change in US working age populationAverage annual job creation since WWII

Source: TIP Strategies; US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Census Bureau

A Digital Economy

• In the Future, digital access will be synonymous with achievement

Oil prices will become increasingly volatile

The future will not be like the past, nor the present

Demographic Shifts

• Growth concentrated in 55+ ages and 15-34 – Different housing demand

• These shifts will result in more multi family and mixed use growth.

Many Communities will compete to be great places to live & work

Open Spaces and Parks

Trends

Strong forces will put a premium on:1. Energy efficient, sustainable communities2. Places Attractive to Workforce3. Effective Transportation4. Great Livability5. More Options for Travel, Housing

Shopping, and Work

Zoning Source:

City of Baton Rouge –Parish of East Baton RougeGeographic Information Systems

Buildable Lands Source:

City of Baton Rouge –Parish of East Baton RougeGeographic Information Systems

Source:FEMA (Federal

Emergency Management Agency)

Source:USGS

(US Geological Survey)

Buildout with no EnvironmentalConstraints

Households Increase = 71,853Employment Increase = 319,452

Buildout with Floodplains &Wetlands Constrained

Households Increase = 43,888Employment Increase = 107,386

Economic trends and forecasts

Income in Baton Rouge

Source: Claritas Inc.

•East Baton Rouge households are wealthier than the State, though slightly less prosperous than the entire Baton Rouge MSA.

Income by Race

Source: Claritas Inc.

Education by Race

Source: U.S. American Community Survey 2008

Historic Employment Growth: Pre-2000

Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

Historic employment growth 2001- 2008

Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Arts and entertain

Manufacturing

Employment forecast 2016 (regional)

Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

Employment share / region

• 63-65% region’s employment is in East Baton Rouge Parish

• The Parish accounts for half the new jobs in the region

2001 2008Louisiana 1,864,538 1,885,531 20,993Regional Labor Market 377,958 417,973 40,015

Percent of State 20% 22%East Baton Rouge 245,176 264,262 19,086

Percent of Region 65% 63%

Number of Jobs Growth 01-08

Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission

Crime Rate

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

1st Qtr

United StatesDenverEast Baton RougeEBR/BR CombinedFort WorthPortlandHoustonNew OrleansAustinBaton RougeOaklandAtlanta

Population Forecast (2030)

Source: State of Louisiana Population Projections, Medium Forecast

•The population of East Baton Rouge Parish is projected to decline by 0.14% annually between 2010 and 2030.

•The population of the Baton Rouge MSA is projected to grow at nearly 1% per year over the same time period.

Historic population growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

•East Baton Rouge Parish and Louisiana grew more slowly than the U.S., even before Katrina.

•The state experienced a population decline of 6% (250,000 people) in the year following Katrina.

•The Baton Rouge area, on the other hand, grew by nearly 5% (19,000 people) in the year following Katrina.

Cities that have grown since 2000

2000 2008 Change

Austin 656,562 746,835 14%

Boise 185,787 203,818 10%

Oklahoma City 506,132 544,157 8%

Denver 554,636 584,563 5%

Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates

Cities that have declined2000 2008 Change

Detroit 951,270 808,398 -15%

Cincinnati 331,285 299,577 -10%

Buffalo 292,648 259,143 -11%

Kansas City 441,545 435,825 -1%

Des Moines 198,682 197,912 0%

Source: US Census Bureau; 2006-08 ACS estimates

Traditional Planning Approach

• Decide – through analysis and research• Educate – the public about the solution• Announce – the plan• Defend – the plan

Traditional Planning Approach

• D• E• A• D

Improved Process

VALUES (What do people want?)

VISION (How will our City provide it?)

STRATEGY (How do we implement?)

PLAN

FUND

BUILD

Community Workshops

1

3

2

Two Scales – Parish and Neighborhood

NeighborhoodNeighborhoodParishParish

Workshop Game Pieces or “Chips”

Each table’s plan is analyzed…

….and all notes and comments are recorded

What happens after the workshop?

GIS Analysis

Each map was photographed, digitized, and entered into GIS

Downtown

Refineries

ZooAirport

Peoria

Skelly Drive

I-244

University of Tulsa

All Chips PlacedAll Chips Placed

DowntownUrbanMain StreetTransit DevelopmentVillageBusiness ParkCommercial CenterStrip CenterLight IndustrialUrban NeighborhoodSmall Lot SubdivisionResidential SubdivisionLarge Lot SubdivisionEastland Mall

Area

41st and Memorial

Scenario Choices

Broad Outreach

Scenario Options

A B

C D

Scenarios are Crash Test Dummies

Scenario CShown with the transportation network and existing surrounding plans

Scenario C

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50,000

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350,000

SF Det SF Att MF SF Det SF Att MF

Year 2000 Vision 2030

Owner Renter Year 2000

43%

57%

Modeling the Scenarios

Transportation AnalysisRoadway Impact

Ridership

Market ConstraintsDevelopment ProgramCommercial Demand

Housing Needs

Land Use ScenarioTipping Point Development

Vision 2030

52%

48%

Sustainability Urban Design

Prototype Buildings

Prototype Buildings

Original StandardsPrototypes

ApartmentSingle Family Home 5-8K LotSingle Family Home 8-15K Lot

Business ParkMid-Rise Business ParkRetail MallStrip CommercialHeavy IndustrialLight Industrial

New StandardsPrototypes

Cottage Home Townhome Live / Work Neighborhood Grocery (1 Story)Neighborhood Retail (1 Story)Mixed Use Apartments & Retail (2 Story)Mixed Use Retail & Office (2 Story)Mixed Use Retail & Office (3 Story)Mixed Use Residential & Retail (4 Story)High Density Condo or Apartments (5 Story)Office Retail (3 Story)Office Retail (5 Story)Office Retail (10 Story)

Financial Analysis and Modeling

Vetting the PrototypesTesting ideas in real world situations

Site size:360,000 Square Feet

Big-Box Retail Rehabilitation

How the Scenarios Compare

Daily Transit Ridership

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Scenario

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Scenario

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Scenario

C

Scenario

D

Housing Match (to income and preference)

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8-Story MU Retail/Res.

3-Story MU Retail/Res.

8-Story Res.

3-Story Res.

2-Story Townhome

2-Story Single Family

Large Lot SFR

Scenario B (Units) SV Proportional Profile (Units)

Balanced Housing Index

Score

80

Economy

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Trend Workshop Scenario C Scenario D Scenario T

Additional City Sales Tax Revenue

Scenario has the best sales tax performance of all

Scorecard

Comprehensive Plan Design

Four Components

• Vision

• Policy Plan

• Implementation Plan

• Monitoring System

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1st Component1st Component The VisionThe Vision

Capturing the City -Parish’s dreams:

• Core Values derived from broad-based public input

• Key Initiatives to realize the Vision

• Vision Illustration based on a palette of building blocks or development patterns

6767

2nd Component2nd Component The Policy DocumentThe Policy Document

• Eleven Elements linked that establish the policy foundation for achieving the Vision:

– Future Land Use – Transportation Element – Economy – Infrastructure and Capital Improvements Plan – Conservation and Environmental Resources – Recreation and Open Space – Housing – Public Services and Facilities/Buildings– Urban Design, Development, and Redevelopment – Health and Human Services – Natural Hazards

• Updated on 5 to 10 year cycle

6868

Land Use Element

• Establishes basis for zoning capacity to achieve growth targets

• Balances and integrates land uses with transportation systems to enable sustainable growth

• Institutes a framework for ongoing, small area planning to refine and implement the Vision

6969

Urban Design Element

• Establishes urban design policies tied to Vision building blocks

– Encourages architecture that responds to the surrounding community in context and scale

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Housing Element

Recognizes EBR’s urban future

– Encourages new types of ownership opportunities for non-traditional home buyers

– Encourages housing supply to meet needs across the income spectrum for future generations

– Creates housing conditions to attract middle income families to the Southern Sector

7171

Economic Element

7272

Establishes policies that advance economic goals– Fosters expansion and retention of

business and industry

– Informs land use element to ensure it provides the right zoning for the right development in the right places

A strong Parks, Open Space and Environmental element

Transportation Element

• Establishes fundamental linkage land use and transportation

• Establishes Context Sensitive Design (CSD) standards for streets

• Identifies key projects

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Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection

Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection

Land Use & Transportation Land Use & Transportation ConnectionConnection

Matching Street Design to Land Use

One size does not fit all Streets should respond to the land uses around them

Transit Options

Current Usage of Transit

33rdrd ComponentComponentThe Implementation PlanThe Implementation Plan

Implementation Plans

Upcoming Events

• 2010• January 26, 27 (kick-off Event)• March 2-4th (Parish Wide workshops)• April 6th-8th (Neighborhood workshops)• May 18th-20th• Summarize workshop results• June 22nd-24th• Presentation of scenarios and initial strategic issues

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