duurzaam en economie; gaat dat samen? · energiek 2020, bleiswijk, 26 maart 2015. prof. dr. andré...

Duurzaam en Economie; Gaat dat samen?Energiek 2020, Bleiswijk, 26 Maart 2015.

Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij

Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe

Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis –University of Groningen

Energy demand, GHG emissions and climate change…

Potential emissions from remaining fossil resources could

result in GHG concentration levels far above 600ppm.

Nervous markets…

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.

- Chappin, Dijkema, de Vries, The Wall Street Journal, 2010

• High volatility• Price crashes• Gaming• Windfall profits

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704535004575348924229071164

Energy system transformation…

[GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]

CCS Potential

Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008

1/5 of the

portfolio

Oil critical (imported) fossil fuel

Few countries have substantialrole of renewables (e.g. Demark, Austria, Sweden; mainly due tobioenergy + hydro)

Variable roles for gas and nuclear

Energy mix EU

400 Billion Euro/yr energy imports in EU; and counting…!

Part of Europe in leadership position…

Dutch Energy system

Cijfers voor 2010Bron: CBS/bewerking ECN

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Totaal hernieuwbaar

Hernieuwbaar overig

Zonnecollectoren, geothermie

Wind, PV, Hydro

Water

Wind

Zon PV

Biomassa

Totaal Traditioneel

Kernenergie

Gas

Olie

Kolen

CO2-emissions rise

His

tori

sctr

en

d

CO2-emissions decline

Supply per energy source (PJ/yr)

13

CO₂ - emissies dalen

CO₂ emissies stijgenH

isto

risc

he

tre

nd

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

energiebedrijven

landbouw, visserij endienstverlening

gebouwde omgevingelektriciteit

gebouwde omgevingwarmte

huishoudens

handel, diensten,overheid

landbouw

industrie

verkeer en vervoer

en

erg

ievr

aag

nie

t u

itge

split

st

naa

r se

cto

r

en

erg

ievr

aag

nie

t u

itge

split

stn

aar

sect

or

en

erg

ievr

aag

nie

t u

itge

split

st

naa

r se

cto

r

Demand per sector (PJ/yr)

Diversity in modelling & secneario assumptions...

BBP (billion €)

No. people (mln)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GreenpeaceRev

Green4sure

SEO-BM

SEO-BAU

PBL-ECN

CPB/MNP -SE

CPB/MNP -RC

CPB/MNP -GE

CPB/MNP -TM

ECN - REF

Historisch

18

18.9

15.8

19.7

17.1

17

17.5

21.2

Ranges energy prices (€/GJ)(for target years in different studies)

Current prices in black

0

5

10

15

20

25

oil coal gas biomass electricity

Bandbreedte in aanname energieprijzen voor de periode 2030 - 2050 (€/GJ)

op basis van 2 rapporten

op basis van 6 rapporten

op basis van 2 rapporten

op basis van 7 rapporten

op basis van 5 rapporten

14

Energy use (PJ/yr)CO2 emissions variy between 34 -

332 Mt/yr in 2050.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Greenpeace -Revolution

KIVI NIRIA

Green4sure

SEO - BM-P

SEO - BAU-P

PBL/ECN - max

PBL/ECN - auto

PBL/ECN - nu

CPB/MNP - SE

CPB/MNP - RC

CPB/MNP - GE

CPB/MNP -TM

Optied-duurz

ECN REF-plan

ECN REF-vast

ECN REF-geen

Historisch

Economic importance:New industry & employment?

Decline overall employment since 2008But (RET & Eff.) energy sector grewsome 60% and expected to continue.

Gasroundabout Europe?

Biobased economy?

Smart Grids?

Wind Off shore?

PV

Many more examples onSectoral level…

RE costs have declined in the past further declines expected in the future But fossil fuel based energytechnologies (and supplies) learn as wel…

Learning curve for power generation technologies, historic data and POLES WETO reference projection up to 2030.

[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

And such opportunities can be found in most sectors…

• Improved siting of wind farms (Learning by doing)

• Development of specific components (gear boxes,

generators) and regulating mechanisms (stall/ pitch

regulation) (R&D)

• Mass production of wind turbines (economies-of-scale)

• Upscaling of wind turbines (upscaling)

Factors influencing learning/

unit costs

Example for onshore wind farms:

‘Learning investments’ –

the cost of learning

Source: IEA, 2000

Generic capital cost trend for early

commercial units of a new power

plant technology

Source: EPRI

Capital C

ost

/ U

nit o

f C

apacity

(co

nsta

nt

curr

ency)

Time

First commercial service

Second plant in service

3rd plant

4th plant

5th plant

Estimate Actual

Mature plant costs

Simplified cost estimate with incomplete data

Development period cost estimates

Available for commercial order

Preconstruction and licencing period

Finalized cost estimate

Design / construction period

• Tot 2020:• (Semi-)gesloten kassen;• Aardgas-WKK;• Aardwarmte;• Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven;• Energiebesparing.

Actieplan klimaatneutraleglastuinbouw (1)

Na 2020:• Klimaatneutrale (gesloten) kas;• Elektriciteitsleverende kas met spectrumselectieve zonnecellen;• Bio-WKK (alleen gebruik van tweede generatie biomassa);• Aardwarmte;• Clustering van glastuinbouwbedrijven;• Energiebesparing.

Uitgangspunten voor het bereiken van de doelstelling zijn:• De glastuinbouwsector gaat er in de transitiefase (10-15 jaar) economisch niet op achteruit;• De toegepaste alternatieve niet-fossiele brandstoffen leveren geen negatieve milieu-effecten op.

Actieplan klimaatneutraleglastuinbouw (2)

• Van groot energiegebruiker (gas!) naarenergieleverancier.

• Gecombineerd met overall verduurzaming (geslotenkas, recycling nutriënten, water en preventie emissies).

• High tech exportproduct.• Uitstekend voorbeeld van innovatieve sector.• Uitstekend voorbeeld van sector met potentieel om

ecologische footprint fundamenteel te veranderen.• Tegelijk blijft continu investeren en innoveren

essentieel (leercurves…)…• In toenemende mate systeeminnovaties (verweven

met rest energiesysteem (en andere ketens…)).

Perspectief voor glastuinbouw

A.o. IEA (WEO) concluded multiple times that :

• Yes, 450 ppm pathways requires massiveinvestments…

• …but will lead to rapid cost reductions of RET’s and energy efficient technologies…

• …and less pressure on fossil fuel supplies…

• …leading to an overall lower cost and more secure (global) energy supply!

Important notion forin energy science & policy:

• Innovation (R&D + D + D) in energy technologies (supply & demand) is essential (fossil fuels keep learning as well).

• A stable policy and investment climate is a key precondition for success and reaping the benefits of vital new industries and employment. This means:

• Stable (long term) obligatory targets, clear market instruments, intensive collaboration between govt. & market players, innovation system strategy

Final remarks: the essential preconditionsfor essential technological progress

Final remarks…• Transition of the energy system does not allow for

further delays; 2050 targets require considerable acceleration.

• Not only because of climate change (and other ecological concerns) but also because of economic reasons.

• Technical possibilities known; potentials suffice.• Implementation and governance major bottlenecks.• Implications for the energy system, deployment over

time and minimization of costs poorly understood…• …as are the extent to which economic benefits can be

maximized.• System perspective, integral view of impacts and

analysis of governance and business models.• Analysis parallel to implementation.

Time to act and thank youvery much for your attention

A.P.C.Faaij@RUG.nl / Andre.Faaij@energyacademy.orgsciencedirect/scopus/google scholarsrren.ipcc-wg3.de/reportwww.energyacademy.org