dolmant development of ecological modelling tools for lake management

DOLMANT Development of ecological modelling

tools for lake managementSpeakers: Dr Louise Vaughan & Dr Katrina Macintosh

Project Leaders: Dr Yvonne McElarney & Prof Brian Rippey

Presentation Overview

• DOLMANT project aims• Programme of work• Phytoplankton• Zooplankton• Future work• Questions?

DOLMANT Project Aims• Integrate biological, hydromorphological and physico-

chemical properties of lakes with catchment variables

• Models will help evaluate the effectiveness of measures adopted in catchments

• Support effective programmes of measures in line with the Water Framework Directive

Chla

Metrics e.g.% Cyanobacteria% Chlorophytes..

Ecological State

M’Invertebrate Status

Zooplankton Status

Macrophyte Status

Temperature

Catchment nutrient loadings…

Plus other relevant measured

variables..alk, cond, pH etc…

Lake TP

Lake TN

PhytoplanktonStatus

Fish Status

• Lough Neagh• Lower Lough Erne• 52 smaller lakes

Programme of Work

Phytoplankton

Golagh

Lee

Vearty

Legane

Mourne

Scolban

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2010

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Chlorophyll a

Total Phytoplankton

Blue green

Diatoms

Lough Neagh

Phytoplankton Metrics

• Chlorophyll a

• Percentage Nuisance Cyanobacteria

• Irish EPA Phytoplankton composition metric

• Phytoplankton Trophic Index

Zooplankton• Lough Neagh historic samples• Two years; 2005 and 2011 were enumerated in detail.• Describe seasonal patterns of density• Establish changes between 2005 and 2011• Changes from 1970-1990 data

Lough Neagh 2005Taxa Mean (nos L-1) Median (nos L-1)Cyclops spp 21.500 17.438Eudiaptomus gracilis 9.356 10.191Daphnia hyalina 1.614 0.679Daphnia longspina 0.142 0.057Daphnia pulex 0.014 Found in one sampleNaupulii 1.047 0.793Mysis relicta 0.002 Found in three samplesLeptodora kindtii 0.004 Found in three samplesBythotrephes longimanus 0.008 Found in two samples

• Cyclops spp. most abundant, followed by Eudiaptomus gracilis• D. hyalina found between July and October• D. longispina found between March and May• Bythotrephes longimanus found in July and August• Leptodora kindtii from May to August

Lough Neagh 2005

Lough Neagh 2011

• Cyclops spp. most abundant, followed by Eudiaptomus gracilis• D. hyalina found between July and December• D. longispina not found• Bythotrephes longimanus found from July to September• Leptodora kindtii in August and October

Taxa Mean (nos L-1) Median (nos L-1)Cyclops spp 41.789 44.728Eudiaptomus gracilis 9.208 6.568Daphnia hyalina 1.137 0.057Naupulii 1.771 0.679Mysis relicta 0.003 Found in two samplesLeptodora kindtii 0.0003 Found in two samplesBythotrephes longimanus 0.007 Found in three samples

Lough Neagh 2011

Lough Neagh 1969 - 2011

Future Work

• Continue enumeration of historic samples from Lough Neagh and Lough Erne

• Commence fieldwork on 52 small lakes

• Model causal relations between lake variables using structural equation modeling (SEM) / path analysis

• Develop practical management tools to assist agencies achieve ecological targets for lakes

Project Partners• Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI)

• University of Ulster (UU)

• Trinity College Dublin (TCD)

• Inland Fisheries Ireland (IFI)

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Northern Ireland Environment Agency (NIEA)

Acknowledgements

• Chris Gibson• Tony Fitzsimons• Bob Foy• Colm McKenna• Kirsty McConnell• Phil Dinsmore• Louise Davis

• Hannah Cromie• Kevin Gallagher• Eugene O’Kane• Elaine Hamill • Glaucia Hamilton• Eugene McDonnell• Chris Barry• Project partners• AFBI staff

Questions?

Contact details:

Dr Katrina MacintoshEmail: ka.macintosh@ulster.ac.uk

Dr Louise VaughanEmail: louise.vaughan@afbini.gov.uk