the little party gets smashed

If you look closely, you can see the remains of the liberals!

The Little Party Gets Smashed

An Analysis of The Effects of Participation in Government

Recently...Party

Seats/legislature 8/650 0/631

Seat losses (%prior) 48 (85%) 93 (100%)

%pp (Δprior) 7.9 (-15.1) 4.8 (-9.8)

Membership (Δprior) 61,456 (-3,582) 57,000 (-6000)

EU seats (Δprior) 2014

1 (-10) 3(-9)

Institute for Government 2013

Why does this occur?

• Penalty of governance (Stevenson)• Loss of Trust (Tomz and Van Houweling)• Ideological Homogenization (Fortuno)

My proposed explanation

• Junior parties have relatively higher costs in coalitions because of voter-perceived veto power

• Voters do not buy into arguments of “responsible governance”

Methods

• Case studies of four scenes in European countries

• Case studies are a useful starting point to allow for in-depth analysis

• Future research: ratios, divergence.

United Kingdom 2010Party Name Conservative Liberal DemocratDate in Office 2010-2015 2010-2015

Leaders David Cameron Nick Clegg

EU Group AECR ALDE

Ideology Conservative Social liberal

In power after election? Yes No

Next Election 330 (+24) 8 (-49)

Germany 2013

Party Name Christian Democrat Free Democrat

Date in Office 2005-present 2009-2013

Leaders Angela Merkel Rainer Brüderle

EU Group EPP ALDE

Ideology Christian Democracy Economic liberalism

In power after election? Yes No

Next Election 311 (+72) 0 (-93)

French Republic 1981Party Name Parti Socialiste Parti Communiste

Français

Date in Office 1981-1986 1981-1984

Leader François Mitterrand Georges Marchais

EU Group Socialists & Democrats

Communists and Allies

Ideology Social democracy Marxist-Lenninist

In power after next election?

No, presidency No

Next Election 206 (-77) 35 (-9)

United Kingdom 1979Party Name Labour LiberalDate in Office 1974-1979 N/A

Leaders James Callaghan David Steel

EU Group PES ALDE

Ideology Social democracy Social liberalism

In power after election? No No

Next Election 269 (-50) 11 (-2)

Alternative: confidence/supply

• Outside the government, may include ministerial posts

• Avoids institutional advantages (and costs)

• No expectation of veto• Runs the risk of “irresponsibility” label

Other questions

• Electoral system• Multiparty coalitions• Ways to mitigate the veto effect• Single-issue parties