connectors, networks and innovation success

CONNECTORS,NETWORKSandINNOVATIONSUCCESS

byWernerIucksch

Itmaynotlooklikeit,butoneofthemostcontroversialconceptsaroundsocialnetworksisthatoftheimportanceofindividualsthatbecameknownas“connectors”.In“TheTippingPoint”,MalcolmGladwellarguesthatthisspecialkindofpeopleareabletopick‐upideas,values,trendsfromoneclusterofpeopleandtransportittoanother,spreadingideasinsociety.Asconnectorsarelinkedtoahighnumberofpeople,theycouldinitiatebigmovementsofbehaviourchange.

In“Linked”,Albert‐LászlóBarabásiwritesthathisresearchfoundthatsomeplacesincyberspace(thathecalls“hubs”)concentrateavastamountoflinksandtrafficofinformation.Theauthorsuggeststhatthisresultreinforcethetheoryofthe“powerofconnectors”.

Thiswouldconfirmagoldenpieceofinformationtomarketers.Imaginetheeconomiesthatwouldbepossiblebymarketingtoaselectedgroupofpeople,subsequentlylettingthemusetheirnetworkstospreadthenewsanddriveadoptionofproductsorservices.

Thisconceptisnowwidelyacceptedaroundthebusinessworld,ProcterandGambleevensellstheaccesstosuchgroupofpeople,butifthat’swhatittakestospreadthewordanddriveadoptionofnewproduct/services,whymostofthemcontinuetodieoff?

Oneofthemostrespectednetworkresearchers,DuncanWatts,fromColumbiaUniversity,isalsointerestedinthisquestion.Hefoundsomeinterestingdataandformulatedsomehypothesesonwhythathappens,whenheconductedan

enhancedversionofStanleyMilgram’s“SmallWorldexperiment”(theonethatarguesthatanytwopeopleintheworldareseparatedbynomorethan6otherpeople)

Afterstartingmorethan60,000e‐mailchainstofind18targetsaroundtheglobe,Wattsnoticedthatonly5%ofthemessagespassedthroughhighlyconnectedpeople.Fromthisdataitispossibletohypothesizethatalthoughsomepeoplemayhavemanymoreconnectionsthanothers,itdoesn’tmeanthattheyhavemuchthepowertoinfluencebehaviour,fortheyarenotrelieduponforgiventasks.Ofcoursethishypothesishadagreatimpact:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtnR5H6AVVU

Ifthisisthecase,it’sfairtosayittakesmoretotheadoptionofnewideas/products/servicesthansimplyhavingthemspreadaroundbyconnectors.Butwhat?

Innovationdiffusionisanewscience,butsomestudiespointtheway.It’shelpfultothinkabout“criticalthresholds”,aconceptthatbasicallyestatesthatcontagionofindividualswithideaswillonlyhappenifacertainthresholdofinfluenceisachieved.

Forexample,someonemaybegintouseaproductbecauseitisinteresting,someoneelseclosetohimnoticesthatitsolvesaproblems/hehas.Athirdfriendnoticesthattwoofhiscolleaguesareusingitandisnolongershytotrytheinnovation.Thiswaytheymaybuildan“infectedsocialcluster”,whichcanbeconnectedtootherclusters(groupsofpeopletheyknow)insuchawaythatitwillconvertenoughindividualstocascadetheusageoftheproducttomoreandmoreclusters,untilit’llgettoapointwherecriticalmassisachievedtounfoldaglobalinfection(orglobaladoptionoftheinnovation).

Thisis,however,anextraordinarilydifficultprocesstomanipulateortopredict.Aswehearsooften,moviestudiosstillinvestmillionsofdollarsinprojectsthatdon’ttakeoff(e.g.Waterworld,BattlefieldEarth),musichistoryisfullofgroupsheavilypromotedthatneverliveduptothe“hype”(e.g.anyonehitwonder)andbooksassuccessfulasHarryPottergetrejectedseveraltimesbeforebeingpublished.Itcanbearguedthatprofessionalsinvolvedwerenotsocompetent,madebaddecisions,butthere’sanadditionalcomponentthatisaprettycruel:humanbehaviour.

Anotherexperimentisverytellingofoursocialnature.Someyearsago,aprox.14,000peoplewererecruitedtoevaluateanumberofsongsfromunknownmusiciansviaawebsite,downloadingwhichevertheywanted.Halfofthesepeopleonlyhadinformationaboutthenameofthebandandthesong,notbeingabletohaveanyinteractionwitheachother(thuseachpersonwasnotinfluencedbyanyoneelse).Theotherhalfwassub‐dividedin8groups.Inadditiontothenameofbandandsong,eachpersoninasub‐grouphadaccesstoareal‐time“qualityrating”andnumberofdownloadsofeachsongbytheothersub‐group’smembers(sotherewereeightindependentsocialsub‐groups,eachwiththeirownrankings,qualitylevelsandnumberofdownloads.)

IfthepublishersthatrejectedHarryPotterweresoincompetent,thebook’squalityshouldbeevidenttoanyonesincethefirstdraft.Likewise,everygroupintheexperimentshouldhaveevaluatedeachsongsimilarly,giventhesizeofthesample.However,thesongrankingofthefirsthalf(theonethatonlyknewthenameofthebandsandsongs)wasradicallydifferentfromthatofthesub‐groups.

Thesub‐groupsresultswereyetmoreinteresting.Theywereremarkablydifferentamongstthemselves.Thetopsonginonegroupwasthe40thinanothergroupandsoon.Thereason:thetopsonginagroupwaswellevaluatedearlyintheprocessandasotherrespondentswereabletoseetheratingsofotherpeople,theyendedupbeinginfluencedbytheopinions.Inothergroups,anothersongwasanearlyleader,sotheyhadadifferentresult.Thisissomethingthatisobservedinotherareasofscienceandisknownas“PowerLaw”,orastheexpressiongoes:“therich,getricher”.

Well,ifconnectorsdonotequalsuccessandifitissohardtopredictthebehaviourofnetworks,whatcanmarketersdo?

Fromwhatwaslearned,speed,controlandflexibilityseemtobeessential.Oneideatotakeadvantageofthemistolaunchmanyproducts/servicesatthesametime,measuretheiradoptioninthefirstmomentsoftheirlives.Assoonasit’spossibletoidentifywhichonehasmostpotentialtospread,rearrangethebudgetinbenefitofthisoption,makingpeopleawareofit,facilitatingitsgrowth.Alsocheckifsomeotherproduct/serviceisdoingwellwithinimportantniches,calculateitspotentialandinvestaccordingly.Terminatetherest.

Incommunication,ratherthanhavingabiglaunchofonefinalisedversioncampaign,itmaybethecaseofspreadingseveraldifferentmessagesandinteractionpossibilities,withcommonvaluesandstrategicdirection,inasmallerscale.Aftersometime,evaluatehoweachoneisdoing(WOM,sales,brandvalue,etc.)andinvestheavilyinwhateverisconsideredmoreimportantatthemoment.Theconceptissimilartothatofbetatestingmanyversionsofsoftwarebeforerollingoutafullcommercialversion.

Ifthisisdone,connectorscanbeuseful.Althoughtheyarenotnecessarilyinfluentialtoeveryone,theycanhelptoseedavarietyofmessagesquitefast.Withavarietyofmessages,itismorelikelythattherewillbesomethatarerelevantbythemselves(withouttheneedofaconnectorvouchingforit),gainingspacebecausetheyreachtheappropriateaudienceandachievecriticalmassfastenoughandwilllivelonger,becauseresourceswillbereallocatedtokeepthemgrowing.

Thisisanidea.Sciencestillislearninghownetworksoperateandbusinessesarestillstrugglingtomakethemostofsocialnetworksanddigitalplatforms.Therearenoprovenmodelsyet;thereismoreindevelopingasuccessfulproduct/servicethanspeed,flexibilityandcontrol;thewaybrandsarethoughtischangingwiththebehaviourofindividuals.Therearelotsofthreats,aswellaslotsofopportunities.Whatanexcitingtimetoworkwithcommunications.