complex games | patrick collings 2012

ComplexGames

CMO Conference 2012Patrick Collings

Sagacite

& strategy

52%feel unprepared for complexity

71%feel unprepared for data explosion

68%feel unprepared for social media 73%

of CEOs believe CMOs lack business credibility

57%feel unprepared for decreasing

brand loyalty

56%feel unprepared for growth opportunities

“Marketing as a function is in some danger of being marginalized”

- Donald Lehmann, Executive Director of Marketing Science Institute

marketingstrategy, finance, information technology

my view on brands and brand strategy

organisation

Offering

Procurement

Production

Staffing

Financing

Sales Channels

Packaging

Marketing Communication

etc

...and if they were bic pens

organisation

therefore...

brand strategyequals

business strategy

ComplexGames

By Toni Verdú Carbó

VUCA

Management Thinking

Scenario Planning

Agile | Adaptive agenda

VUCA

the world is facing increased turbulence over the next decade and beyond caused by leadership change in emerging markets, major policy shifts by governments, increased armed conflict, interlinked economies, budget cuts by local and national government

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed Worldreleased by the National Intelligence Council

economic hardships continue and expand

by alex e proimos

photo by Beacon Radio

VUCA has not just impacted on

countries

image by Herr Kaczmarek

volatility, uncertainity, complexity and ambiguity are also keeping

executives awake at night

Photo by Eduardo Zarate

these challenges are faced with strategic mindsets that are often defined as...

Photo by Alex E Proimos

photo by paul watson

photo by SomeDriftwood

image by alice popkorn

strategy is a journey not a destination

image by hans hamburger

constant motion

E X P A N DY O U R

V I E W

photo by jef safi

photo by martino

embrace and plan for uncertainity

“Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. All you can do is to give yourself the capacity

to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that

capability is the purpose of strategy”

Lord John Browne, former CEO BP

time to approach with fresh eyes and a new mindset

by maessive

return of scenario planning

Roots in WW II military planningphoto by Templar1307

scenario planning’s most famous hour

Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network

The French School

The Futures Group

Wilson and Ralston

Lindgren and Bandhold

Reference scenarios

Decision Strategies International

Procedural scenarios

Industry scenarios

Performance-based scenariosap

pro

ac

he

s

Start with a questionIsolate the relevant decisions that need to be made

Gather the informationFocus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected and look for disconfirming evidence

Identify the driversIdentify the driving forces that influence the outcome of events

Composing the plotsBuild plots that look at different, realistic outcome of the drivers / information and their implications

image by assbach

scenarios give us realistic alternative

futures

photo by victor cavazzoni

allow us to see beyond the headlights

distance into the future

forecast scenarios hope

uncertainty

now

and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad hand

image by luna di rimmel

help connectsthe dots

picture by gato-gato-gato

relaxation of banking

regulations

instrumentsthat shifted risk

off balancesheets

monetarypolicy keeping interest rates

low

evaporationof reasonable

credit standards

consumer’s limited

financial knowledge

2008FinancialMeltdown

Photo by Stuart Chalmers

agile | adaptive strategies

8in no particular order

#1

embrace change

#2

take incremental steps

#3

keep looping

#4

acknowledge risk

#5

work with portfolios

#6

continual market immersion

#7

budget with insight and flexibility

#8

top down organizational alignment

Ordnung braucht nur der dumme ein genie beherrscht das chaos

Order is needed only by fools, the genius controls the chaos