complex games | patrick collings 2012
DESCRIPTION
This is a presentation I delivered at the Chief Marketing Officers Conference in Johannesburg in September 2012. The presentation deals with the development of strategy for an era of chronic volatility, uncertainity, complexity and ambiguity (known as VUCA). The presentation focuses on scenario planning and agile | adaptive strategies as ways to move forward in a VUCA environment. The first part also deals with the concept of what is branding (I argue it is simply the relation between an organisation and its intended, or unintended, audience) and that brand positioning is in fact business strategy.TRANSCRIPT
ComplexGames
CMO Conference 2012Patrick Collings
Sagacite
& strategy
52%feel unprepared for complexity
71%feel unprepared for data explosion
68%feel unprepared for social media 73%
of CEOs believe CMOs lack business credibility
57%feel unprepared for decreasing
brand loyalty
56%feel unprepared for growth opportunities
“Marketing as a function is in some danger of being marginalized”
- Donald Lehmann, Executive Director of Marketing Science Institute
marketingstrategy, finance, information technology
my view on brands and brand strategy
organisation
Offering
Procurement
Production
Staffing
Financing
Sales Channels
Packaging
Marketing Communication
etc
...and if they were bic pens
organisation
therefore...
brand strategyequals
business strategy
ComplexGames
By Toni Verdú Carbó
VUCA
Management Thinking
Scenario Planning
Agile | Adaptive agenda
VUCA
the world is facing increased turbulence over the next decade and beyond caused by leadership change in emerging markets, major policy shifts by governments, increased armed conflict, interlinked economies, budget cuts by local and national government
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed Worldreleased by the National Intelligence Council
economic hardships continue and expand
by alex e proimos
photo by Beacon Radio
VUCA has not just impacted on
countries
image by Herr Kaczmarek
volatility, uncertainity, complexity and ambiguity are also keeping
executives awake at night
Photo by Eduardo Zarate
these challenges are faced with strategic mindsets that are often defined as...
Photo by Alex E Proimos
photo by paul watson
photo by SomeDriftwood
image by alice popkorn
strategy is a journey not a destination
image by hans hamburger
constant motion
E X P A N DY O U R
V I E W
photo by jef safi
photo by martino
embrace and plan for uncertainity
“Giving up the illusion that you can predict the future is a very liberating moment. All you can do is to give yourself the capacity
to respond to the only certainty in life - which is uncertainty. The creation of that
capability is the purpose of strategy”
Lord John Browne, former CEO BP
time to approach with fresh eyes and a new mindset
by maessive
return of scenario planning
Roots in WW II military planningphoto by Templar1307
scenario planning’s most famous hour
Royal Dutch/Shell & Global Business Network
The French School
The Futures Group
Wilson and Ralston
Lindgren and Bandhold
Reference scenarios
Decision Strategies International
Procedural scenarios
Industry scenarios
Performance-based scenariosap
pro
ac
he
s
Start with a questionIsolate the relevant decisions that need to be made
Gather the informationFocus on the question but not at the detriment of the unexpected and look for disconfirming evidence
Identify the driversIdentify the driving forces that influence the outcome of events
Composing the plotsBuild plots that look at different, realistic outcome of the drivers / information and their implications
image by assbach
scenarios give us realistic alternative
futures
photo by victor cavazzoni
allow us to see beyond the headlights
distance into the future
forecast scenarios hope
uncertainty
now
and avoid panic when the future deals us a bad hand
image by luna di rimmel
help connectsthe dots
picture by gato-gato-gato
relaxation of banking
regulations
instrumentsthat shifted risk
off balancesheets
monetarypolicy keeping interest rates
low
evaporationof reasonable
credit standards
consumer’s limited
financial knowledge
2008FinancialMeltdown
Photo by Stuart Chalmers
agile | adaptive strategies
8in no particular order
#1
embrace change
#2
take incremental steps
#3
keep looping
#4
acknowledge risk
#5
work with portfolios
#6
continual market immersion
#7
budget with insight and flexibility
#8
top down organizational alignment
Ordnung braucht nur der dumme ein genie beherrscht das chaos
Order is needed only by fools, the genius controls the chaos