building your future nsa nz jan 2011
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Building your futureDr Norman Chorn
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Dr Norman Chorn
Future Builder
Organisation architect
Change master
Thought Leaders Mentor
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Tonight
Sunday, 23 January 2011
TonightWhy conventional planning
won’t work for you anymore
Sunday, 23 January 2011
TonightWhy conventional planning
won’t work for you anymore
How FutureBuilding can help
create your future
Sunday, 23 January 2011
TonightWhy conventional planning
won’t work for you anymore
How FutureBuilding can help
create your future
Strategy vs Planning in your
own business
Sunday, 23 January 2011
TonightWhy conventional planning
won’t work for you anymore
How FutureBuilding can help
create your future
Strategy vs Planning in your
own business
Examples and exercises
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Jeff Brenman
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Have you noticed?
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Have you noticed?New economics✓ more regulation✓ lower growth✓ savvy consumers✓ zeroing transaction costs✓ low cost competitors✓ new technologies
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Have you noticed?New economics✓ more regulation✓ lower growth✓ savvy consumers✓ zeroing transaction costs✓ low cost competitors✓ new technologies
New social✓ fluid families✓ suspicious of politics✓ suspicious of big biz✓ more conservatism✓ anti-globalisation✓ social justice✓ protectionism
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Have you noticed?New economics✓ more regulation✓ lower growth✓ savvy consumers✓ zeroing transaction costs✓ low cost competitors✓ new technologies
New social✓ fluid families✓ suspicious of politics✓ suspicious of big biz✓ more conservatism✓ anti-globalisation✓ social justice✓ protectionism
New environment✓ climate change✓ emissions legislation✓ degradation of soil, air, water✓ cost of energy✓ new forms of energy
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Assumptions are key
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Assumptions are key
...but the environment keeps changing
Sunday, 23 January 2011
FutureBuilding does planning differentlySunday, 23 January 2011
Some principles
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future does not exista priori
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is a set of possibilities that can be influenced by purposeful behaviour
discovery
choice action
Sunday, 23 January 2011
No monarchy has fomented its own overthrow
Sunday, 23 January 2011
FutureBuilding does not attempt to predict the future
Alternative futures are possible
Sunday, 23 January 2011
FutureBuilding focuses on developing the capabilities needed for alternative futures
Sunday, 23 January 2011
It is better to be vaguely right than completely wrong
Clem SunterSunday, 23 January 2011
Examples of alternative futures
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Public health in Australia
Lo concern by public for health
Lo social engineering
Hi social engineering
Hi concern and public
mobilisation
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Public health in Australia
Lo concern by public for health
Lo social engineering
Hi social engineering
Hi concern and public
mobilisation
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Public health in Australia
Lo concern by public for health
Lo social engineering
Hi social engineering
Hi concern and public
mobilisation
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Public health in Australia
Lo concern by public for health
Lo social engineering
Hi social engineering
Hi concern and public
mobilisation
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Public health in Australia
Lo concern by public for health
Lo social engineering
Hi social engineering
Hi concern and public
mobilisation
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sydney property development
Progressive society and
policies
Lo cost of energy
Hi cost of energy
Defensive society and
policies
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sydney property development
Progressive society and
policies
Lo cost of energy
Hi cost of energy
Defensive society and
policies
No option Sydney
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sydney property development
Progressive society and
policies
Lo cost of energy
Hi cost of energy
Defensive society and
policies
No option Sydney
Batten down the hatches
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sydney property development
Progressive society and
policies
Lo cost of energy
Hi cost of energy
Defensive society and
policies
No option Sydney
The lucky city
Batten down the hatches
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Sydney property development
Progressive society and
policies
Lo cost of energy
Hi cost of energy
Defensive society and
policies
No option Sydney
The lucky city
Not our problem
Batten down the hatches
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Choosing clients...
External focus on markets and
customers
Values and self direction
Process and controls
Internal focus on organisation
and people
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Choosing clients...
External focus on markets and
customers
Values and self direction
Process and controls
Internal focus on organisation
and people
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Choosing clients...
External focus on markets and
customers
Values and self direction
Process and controls
Internal focus on organisation
and people
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Choosing clients...
External focus on markets and
customers
Values and self direction
Process and controls
Internal focus on organisation
and people
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Choosing clients...
External focus on markets and
customers
Values and self direction
Process and controls
Internal focus on organisation
and people
Sunday, 23 January 2011
...and building your own future
Focus on ‘things’ and processes
Hi touch environment
Hi technology environment
Focus on people and relationships
* examples
Sunday, 23 January 2011
...and building your own future
Focus on ‘things’ and processes
Hi touch environment
Hi technology environment
Focus on people and relationships
Setting up a
CRM*
* examples
Sunday, 23 January 2011
...and building your own future
Focus on ‘things’ and processes
Hi touch environment
Hi technology environment
Focus on people and relationships
Setting up a
CRM*
Designing online
training*
* examples
Sunday, 23 January 2011
...and building your own future
Focus on ‘things’ and processes
Hi touch environment
Hi technology environment
Focus on people and relationships
Setting up a
CRM*
Designing online
training*
Quality training*
* examples
Sunday, 23 January 2011
...and building your own future
Focus on ‘things’ and processes
Hi touch environment
Hi technology environment
Focus on people and relationships
Setting up a
CRM*
Team building*
Designing online
training*
Quality training*
* examples
Sunday, 23 January 2011
DIY FutureBuilding
Sunday, 23 January 2011
In your “environment”, identify:✓ key trends✓ important drivers of change✓ most significant uncertainties
1
*Remember to use Pathfinders
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Select the 2* dimensions that explain the most DIFFERENCE in the data. Then construct a set of skeleton scenarios --> alternative futures
2Sunday, 23 January 2011
Select the 2* dimensions that explain the most DIFFERENCE in the data. Then construct a set of skeleton scenarios --> alternative futures
2Sunday, 23 January 2011
Make the stories (scenarios) as complete as possible - describe what life is like in that future world
Flesh out the skeletons into stories for each of the alternative futures3
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Develop the “winning” strategy for you to win in each of these alternative futures4
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Develop the “winning” strategy for you to win in each of these alternative futures4
Consider all aspects of the strategy✓ product / service✓ market / customer✓ value proposition✓ how you will differentiate yourself✓ relationship architecture✓ how you will make a return
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Identify the key capabilities you will need to develop to execute the winning strategies5
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Identify the key capabilities you will need to develop to execute the winning strategies5
Several classes of capability✓ knowledge of techniques, processes, issues✓ understanding of industries, types of clients✓ key skills and competencies✓ relationship architecture✓ reputation, track record, credibility✓ assets, tools, infrastructure✓ qualifications, licenses, permits
Sunday, 23 January 2011
66 And now for your action planning
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Action plan to develop future capabilities
Now
FutureSunday, 23 January 2011
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Action plan to develop future capabilities
Now
FutureSunday, 23 January 2011
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Action plan to develop future capabilities
Now
Future
Some 50 - 70% of these capabilities
are likely to overlap
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Future capabilities
Action plan to develop future capabilities
Now
Future
Some 50 - 70% of these capabilities
are likely to overlap
Back-casting
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Now you do it...
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Building your future1. Identify key trends, drivers and uncertainties
2. Construct your skeleton scenarios by choosing 2 orthogonal dimensions (max the difference in data)
3. Flesh out alternative stories of the future
4. Build “winning strategies” for each alternative future
5. Identify the key capabilities required for each strategy
6. Action plan to develop common capabilities
Sunday, 23 January 2011
PromptsStrategies
product/service
market/customer
value proposition
differentiation
relationship architecture
making a return
Capabilities
knowledge
understanding
skills and competencies
relationships
reputation, credibility
assets, tools
qualifications, permits
Sunday, 23 January 2011
A few interesting thoughts from prominent FutureBuilders
Sunday, 23 January 2011
“You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you’ve got it built, they’ll want something new.
There’s an old Wayne Gretsky quote that I love. ‘I skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has been..’”
Thanks to Craig Rispin
Sunday, 23 January 2011
“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at roughly a factor of two per year”
Extract from Moore's original paper in 1965
Gordon Moore - co-founder of Intel
Thanks to Craig Rispin
Sunday, 23 January 2011
“Don’t let the future just happen to you - go and create you own ideal future!”
Craig Rispin - Futurist
Sunday, 23 January 2011
A few conclusions...
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Don’t attempt to predict the future
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Don’t attempt to predict the future
The future can be influenced
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Don’t attempt to predict the future
The future can be influenced
Pathfinders are necessary to envisage alternative futures
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Don’t attempt to predict the future
The future can be influenced
Pathfinders are necessary to envisage alternative futures
Focus on building strategies and capabilities for alternative futures
Sunday, 23 January 2011
The future is not what it used to be...
The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work
Don’t attempt to predict the future
The future can be influenced
Pathfinders are necessary to envisage alternative futures
Focus on building strategies and capabilities for alternative futures
Skate to where the puck is going to be
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Thank you
Sunday, 23 January 2011
NSA NZ offer
$40
Sunday, 23 January 2011
If you’re still interested...
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy is different to planningA simple distinction
Planning = setting objectives and actions to achieve a goal
Strategy = positioning and equipping you and the business for the future
Better understanding through a study of military history and Napoleon’s exploits
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Strategy vs. Planning
Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)
Approach
1. Establish your base of ops
2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to
move your army forward
1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in
battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements
combine in unique way4. Act with resolution
Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point
By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle
Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it
Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt
Key Objective point Decisive point
Sunday, 23 January 2011
Thank you (again)
Sunday, 23 January 2011
NSA NZ offer
$40
Sunday, 23 January 2011
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