building your future nsa nz jan 2011

Building your futureDr Norman Chorn

Sunday, 23 January 2011

Dr Norman Chorn

Future Builder

Organisation architect

Change master

Thought Leaders Mentor

Tonight

TonightWhy conventional planning

won’t work for you anymore

How FutureBuilding can help

create your future

Strategy vs Planning in your

own business

create your future

Strategy vs Planning in your

own business

Examples and exercises

Jeff Brenman

Have you noticed?

Have you noticed?New economics✓ more regulation✓ lower growth✓ savvy consumers✓ zeroing transaction costs✓ low cost competitors✓ new technologies

New social✓ fluid families✓ suspicious of politics✓ suspicious of big biz✓ more conservatism✓ anti-globalisation✓ social justice✓ protectionism

New environment✓ climate change✓ emissions legislation✓ degradation of soil, air, water✓ cost of energy✓ new forms of energy

Assumptions are key

...but the environment keeps changing

FutureBuilding does planning differentlySunday, 23 January 2011

Some principles

The future does not exista priori

The future is a set of possibilities that can be influenced by purposeful behaviour

discovery

choice action

No monarchy has fomented its own overthrow

FutureBuilding does not attempt to predict the future

Alternative futures are possible

FutureBuilding focuses on developing the capabilities needed for alternative futures

It is better to be vaguely right than completely wrong

Clem SunterSunday, 23 January 2011

Examples of alternative futures

Public health in Australia

Lo concern by public for health

Lo social engineering

Hi social engineering

Hi concern and public

mobilisation

Sydney property development

Progressive society and

policies

Lo cost of energy

Hi cost of energy

Defensive society and

policies

Lo cost of energy

Hi cost of energy

policies

No option Sydney

policies

Lo cost of energy

Hi cost of energy

policies

No option Sydney

Batten down the hatches

policies

Lo cost of energy

Hi cost of energy

policies

No option Sydney

The lucky city

policies

Lo cost of energy

Hi cost of energy

policies

No option Sydney

The lucky city

Not our problem

Choosing clients...

External focus on markets and

customers

Values and self direction

Process and controls

Internal focus on organisation

and people

Choosing clients...

customers

and people

Choosing clients...

customers

and people

Choosing clients...

customers

and people

Choosing clients...

customers

and people

...and building your own future

Focus on ‘things’ and processes

Hi touch environment

Hi technology environment

Focus on people and relationships

* examples

Setting up a

* examples

Setting up a

Designing online

training*

* examples

Setting up a

Designing online

training*

Quality training*

* examples

Setting up a

Team building*

Designing online

training*

Quality training*

* examples

DIY FutureBuilding

In your “environment”, identify:✓ key trends✓ important drivers of change✓ most significant uncertainties

*Remember to use Pathfinders

Select the 2* dimensions that explain the most DIFFERENCE in the data. Then construct a set of skeleton scenarios --> alternative futures

2Sunday, 23 January 2011

Select the 2* dimensions that explain the most DIFFERENCE in the data. Then construct a set of skeleton scenarios --> alternative futures

2Sunday, 23 January 2011

Make the stories (scenarios) as complete as possible - describe what life is like in that future world

Flesh out the skeletons into stories for each of the alternative futures3

Develop the “winning” strategy for you to win in each of these alternative futures4

Consider all aspects of the strategy✓ product / service✓ market / customer✓ value proposition✓ how you will differentiate yourself✓ relationship architecture✓ how you will make a return

Identify the key capabilities you will need to develop to execute the winning strategies5

Several classes of capability✓ knowledge of techniques, processes, issues✓ understanding of industries, types of clients✓ key skills and competencies✓ relationship architecture✓ reputation, track record, credibility✓ assets, tools, infrastructure✓ qualifications, licenses, permits

66 And now for your action planning

Future capabilities

Action plan to develop future capabilities

FutureSunday, 23 January 2011

Future capabilities

FutureSunday, 23 January 2011

Future capabilities

Future

Some 50 - 70% of these capabilities

are likely to overlap

Future capabilities

Future

Some 50 - 70% of these capabilities

are likely to overlap

Back-casting

Now you do it...

Building your future1. Identify key trends, drivers and uncertainties

2. Construct your skeleton scenarios by choosing 2 orthogonal dimensions (max the difference in data)

3. Flesh out alternative stories of the future

4. Build “winning strategies” for each alternative future

5. Identify the key capabilities required for each strategy

6. Action plan to develop common capabilities

PromptsStrategies

product/service

market/customer

value proposition

differentiation

relationship architecture

making a return

Capabilities

knowledge

understanding

skills and competencies

relationships

reputation, credibility

assets, tools

qualifications, permits

A few interesting thoughts from prominent FutureBuilders

“You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you’ve got it built, they’ll want something new.

There’s an old Wayne Gretsky quote that I love. ‘I skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has been..’”

Thanks to Craig Rispin

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at roughly a factor of two per year”

Extract from Moore's original paper in 1965

Gordon Moore - co-founder of Intel

Thanks to Craig Rispin

“Don’t let the future just happen to you - go and create you own ideal future!”

Craig Rispin - Futurist

A few conclusions...

The future is not what it used to be...

The world has changed - conventional approaches no longer work

Don’t attempt to predict the future

The future can be influenced

Pathfinders are necessary to envisage alternative futures

Focus on building strategies and capabilities for alternative futures

Skate to where the puck is going to be

Thank you

NSA NZ offer

If you’re still interested...

Strategy is different to planningA simple distinction

Planning = setting objectives and actions to achieve a goal

Strategy = positioning and equipping you and the business for the future

Better understanding through a study of military history and Napoleon’s exploits

Strategy vs. Planning

Planning (Jomini) Strategy (Napoleon)

Approach

1. Establish your base of ops

2. Determine objective point3. Choose lines of ops to

move your army forward

1. Learn from history and your experience2. Clear your mind - immerse yourself in

battle3. Wait for flash of insight as elements

combine in unique way4. Act with resolution

Success By having greater force than enemy at objective point

By identifying the “decisive point” in the battle

Objective Chosen before - then move to achieve it

Not chosen before - emerges as you learn and adapt

Key Objective point Decisive point

Approach

Thank you (again)

NSA NZ offer

building your future nsa nz jan 2011

Business

public mobilisationsunday

public health

australialo concern

controlsinternal focus

external focus

new economics

self directionprocess

anymorehow futurebuilding