bob mckane, nisqually community forest velma modeling

Nisqually Community Forest VELMA modeling

Bob McKane1, Brad Barnhart1, Jonathan Halama1, Paul Pettus1, Allen Brookes1, Kevin Djang2, Joe Ebersole1, Greg Blair3, Justin Hall4,

Joe Kane5, Paula Swedeen6, Laurie Benson7

1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2 CSRA; 3 ICF International; 4 Nisqually River Council; 5 Nisqually Land Trust; 6 Washington Environmental Council;

7 Washington Department of Natural Resources

South Sound Science Symposium

September 20, 2016

Squaxin Island Tribe's Events Center, Shelton, WA

Nisqually Community Forest (NCF) How best to get from

this back to this ?

Tools for whole-watershed restoration planning

Ecohydrology (VELMA) Stream temperature (Penumbra) Fish habitat (EDT)

Tool transfer to NCF stakeholders

Outline

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

2

Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision

Tacoma

Mt. Rainier

Nisqually River

Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

3

Puget Sound

Google Earth

Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision

Tacoma

Mt. Rainier

Nisqually River

Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin

Basin area: 209 km2

Observed streamflow: Avg 210 cfs max 5,600 cfs min 3.8 cfs

USGS gauge

6 cfs, 8/20/2015

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

4

Puget Sound

Google Earth

Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision

Tacoma

Mt. Rainier

Nisqually River

Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin

Basin area: 209 km2

Observed streamflow: Avg 210 cfs max 5,600 cfs min 3.8 cfs

USGS gauge

6 cfs, 8/20/2015

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

5

Puget Sound

Google Earth

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

6

Mashel Watershed Land Owners

Objectives

Forest Industry Forest products, profit, conservation easements

WA DNR: Elbe State Forest

Forest products, clean water, salmon, recreation

Nisqually Land Trust: Community Forest

Salmon, cultural traditions, sustainable forest-sector jobs, clean water, recreation, carbon sequestration

Town of Eatonville Clean drinking water, flood control, recreation

Can models help identify strategies for balancing

tradeoffs among diverse objectives?

http://johnsonmatel.com/2008octdec_files/October/Portland_Oct17/hills.jpg

forest products

knowledge.allianz.com

Tradeoffs?

Tradeoffs?

fish & wildlife clean water

flood prevention

carbon sequestration

Linking Models for Salmon Recovery Planning

Penumbra: Stream Temperature

VELMA: Large Woody Debris

VELMA: Peak & Low Flow*

EDT: Fish Habitat

*Sediment model in development USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

8

VELMA Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

9

Bedrock Bedrock

Carbon Nitrogen

Water

http://www.ssg-surfer.com Hydrological & Biogeochemical processes • Hydrological: streamflow, ET, vertical & lateral flow…

• Biogeochemical: plant-soil carbon & nutrient dynamics, transport of dissolved nitrogen, carbon, mercury…

• Drivers of change: climate, fire, harvest, fertilization, grazing, urbanization…

VELMA Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

10

Bedrock Bedrock

Carbon Nitrogen

Water

http://www.ssg-surfer.com

Abdelnour, Stieglitz, Pan & McKane (2011)

Abdelnour, McKane, Stieglitz & Pan (2013)

Remote Sensing of Land Use Change

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

11

Old Forests Young Forests New Clearcuts

1985

Dr. Robert Kennedy Oregon State University

Remote Sensing of Land Use Change

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

12

NW forest landscapes are much younger than 30 years ago

Old Forests Young Forests New Clearcuts

2010

Dr. Robert Kennedy Oregon State University

Aboveground Biomass, Mg C/ha)

300

225

150

75

<5

148 m

1460 m

0 5 10 km

Mashel Forest Biomass in 1990 LandTrendr Data

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

13

Young vigorously growing forests can transpire over three times more water than old forests

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

14

Figure 3 from Moore et al. 2004, Tree Physiology 24, 481-491 (Research conducted at HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, OR)

40 year-old stand

450 year-old stand

Tran

sp

irati

on

(m

m d

ay

-1)

Day of Year

Note: Perry (2007) reported similar results based on watershed-scale flow measurements

Young vigorously growing forests can transpire over three times more water than old forests

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

15

Figure 3 from Moore et al. 2004, Tree Physiology 24, 481-491 (Research conducted at HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, OR)

40 year-old stand

450 year-old stand

Tran

sp

irati

on

(m

m d

ay

-1)

Day of Year

Young Forest Old Forest Higher Transpiration Lower Transpiration

Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment

450 year-old conifer forest

Clearcut in 1975

Stream discharge data 1969-present Gauge

16

Forest age effect turned ON

Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment

450 year-old conifer forest

Clearcut in 1975

Stream discharge data 1969-present

Forest age effect turned OFF

Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

100

10

1.0

0.1

0.01

Gauge

17

Observed Modeled

Forest age effect turned ON

Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment

450 year-old conifer forest

Clearcut in 1975

Stream discharge data 1969-present

Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

3.8x more low flow with age effect

100

10

1.0

0.1

0.01

Gauge

18

Observed Modeled

Forest age effect turned ON

Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment

450 year-old conifer forest

Clearcut in 1975

Stream discharge data 1969-present

Forest age effect turned OFF

Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

3.8x more low flow with age effect

100

10

1.0

0.1

0.01

Gauge

19

Observed Modeled

Effect of forest age on summer low flow scales up very well from tree stand small catchment

Moore et al 2004 this study

(and Perry 2007)

Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2

Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old

Stream discharge data, 1992-present

20

Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2

Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old

Stream discharge data, 1992-present

21

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

Observed Modeled

Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2

Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old

Stream discharge data, 1992-present

22

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

Observed Modeled

S

tre

amfl

ow

, cfs

Observed Modeled

Observed February 5-7, 1996 rain-on-snow event

Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2

Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old

Stream discharge data, 1992-present

23

Stre

amfl

ow

, mm

/day

Observed Modeled

S

tre

amfl

ow

, cfs

Observed Modeled

Observed February 5-7, 1996 rain-on-snow event Effect of forest age on summer low

flow scales up well from a headwater catchment in Oregon to the 2,000x larger, mixed-age Mashel watershed (no parameters were changed, only drivers)

Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?

6 cfs

11 cfs

Simulated September Minimum Flow Average for 2006-2014

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

24

Actual

2 cfs

40 yr 100 yr Mashel Forest Landscape Age

Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?

6 cfs

11 cfs

Simulated September Minimum Flow Average for 2006-2014

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

25

Actual

2 cfs

40 yr 100 yr Mashel Forest Landscape Age

Yes, VELMA results indicate that establishment of older (>80 yr?) forest landscapes could substantially increase summer low flows compared to the present-day Mashel watershed

148 m

1460 m

Riparian Large Woody Debris Mashel Basin – VELMA Simulation, Year 2000

VISTAS 3D visualization of VELMA output

0 2 4 6 8 10 km USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

26

Riparian Woody Debris

Mg C/ha

90

84

77

70

64

58

51

45

38

1

<0.5

Stream shade component (completed)

Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)

Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

27

Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR

Stream shade component (completed)

Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)

Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

28

Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR

Stream shade component (completed)

Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)

Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

29

Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR

Stream shade component (completed)

Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)

Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

30

Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR

Climate Refuges Where and what type of restoration practices can help establish cold water refuges for salmon?

Aimee Fullerton, NOAA/UW

Riparian Shade

Snowpack

Groundwater

Hyporheic flow

Large wood

Blue = cold water

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

31 Joe Ebersole, EPA

32 icfi.com

Fish Habitat Modeling: Ecosystem Diagnosis & Treatment (EDT) Model

EDT is a fish life-cycle habitat model

Synthesize available information

Identify limiting habitat factors

Prioritize habitat restoration needs

Help managers design restoration

solutions to meet recovery targets

32

Key goal: Transfer tools to NCF team VELMA-EDT Training Workshop, July 26-28, 2016

NCF model scenarios (examples) Identify salmon habitat restoration priorities:

Streamflow, LWD, temperature, sediments?

How much restoration & where

How long for restoration to have an impact?

Can restoration help mitigate effects of climate change?

Scenarios for balancing diverse objectives: salmon, timber, water quality & quantity, carbon sequestration, local forest sector jobs…

USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory

34

Thanks!

mckane.bob@epa.gov 541-754-4631

eatonvillenews.net