bob mckane, nisqually community forest velma modeling
TRANSCRIPT
Nisqually Community Forest VELMA modeling
Bob McKane1, Brad Barnhart1, Jonathan Halama1, Paul Pettus1, Allen Brookes1, Kevin Djang2, Joe Ebersole1, Greg Blair3, Justin Hall4,
Joe Kane5, Paula Swedeen6, Laurie Benson7
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2 CSRA; 3 ICF International; 4 Nisqually River Council; 5 Nisqually Land Trust; 6 Washington Environmental Council;
7 Washington Department of Natural Resources
South Sound Science Symposium
September 20, 2016
Squaxin Island Tribe's Events Center, Shelton, WA
Nisqually Community Forest (NCF) How best to get from
this back to this ?
Tools for whole-watershed restoration planning
Ecohydrology (VELMA) Stream temperature (Penumbra) Fish habitat (EDT)
Tool transfer to NCF stakeholders
Outline
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision
Tacoma
Mt. Rainier
Nisqually River
Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Puget Sound
Google Earth
Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision
Tacoma
Mt. Rainier
Nisqually River
Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin
Basin area: 209 km2
Observed streamflow: Avg 210 cfs max 5,600 cfs min 3.8 cfs
USGS gauge
6 cfs, 8/20/2015
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Puget Sound
Google Earth
Mashel River Watershed… a key component of the Nisqually Community Forest vision
Tacoma
Mt. Rainier
Nisqually River
Mashel Watershed Principal salmon-producing tributary in Nisqually Basin
Basin area: 209 km2
Observed streamflow: Avg 210 cfs max 5,600 cfs min 3.8 cfs
USGS gauge
6 cfs, 8/20/2015
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Puget Sound
Google Earth
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Mashel Watershed Land Owners
Objectives
Forest Industry Forest products, profit, conservation easements
WA DNR: Elbe State Forest
Forest products, clean water, salmon, recreation
Nisqually Land Trust: Community Forest
Salmon, cultural traditions, sustainable forest-sector jobs, clean water, recreation, carbon sequestration
Town of Eatonville Clean drinking water, flood control, recreation
Can models help identify strategies for balancing
tradeoffs among diverse objectives?
http://johnsonmatel.com/2008octdec_files/October/Portland_Oct17/hills.jpg
forest products
knowledge.allianz.com
Tradeoffs?
Tradeoffs?
fish & wildlife clean water
flood prevention
carbon sequestration
Linking Models for Salmon Recovery Planning
Penumbra: Stream Temperature
VELMA: Large Woody Debris
VELMA: Peak & Low Flow*
EDT: Fish Habitat
*Sediment model in development USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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VELMA Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Bedrock Bedrock
Carbon Nitrogen
Water
http://www.ssg-surfer.com Hydrological & Biogeochemical processes • Hydrological: streamflow, ET, vertical & lateral flow…
• Biogeochemical: plant-soil carbon & nutrient dynamics, transport of dissolved nitrogen, carbon, mercury…
• Drivers of change: climate, fire, harvest, fertilization, grazing, urbanization…
VELMA Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Bedrock Bedrock
Carbon Nitrogen
Water
http://www.ssg-surfer.com
Abdelnour, Stieglitz, Pan & McKane (2011)
Abdelnour, McKane, Stieglitz & Pan (2013)
Remote Sensing of Land Use Change
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Old Forests Young Forests New Clearcuts
1985
Dr. Robert Kennedy Oregon State University
Remote Sensing of Land Use Change
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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NW forest landscapes are much younger than 30 years ago
Old Forests Young Forests New Clearcuts
2010
Dr. Robert Kennedy Oregon State University
Aboveground Biomass, Mg C/ha)
300
225
150
75
<5
148 m
1460 m
0 5 10 km
Mashel Forest Biomass in 1990 LandTrendr Data
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Young vigorously growing forests can transpire over three times more water than old forests
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Figure 3 from Moore et al. 2004, Tree Physiology 24, 481-491 (Research conducted at HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, OR)
40 year-old stand
450 year-old stand
Tran
sp
irati
on
(m
m d
ay
-1)
Day of Year
Note: Perry (2007) reported similar results based on watershed-scale flow measurements
Young vigorously growing forests can transpire over three times more water than old forests
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Figure 3 from Moore et al. 2004, Tree Physiology 24, 481-491 (Research conducted at HJ Andrews Experimental Forest, OR)
40 year-old stand
450 year-old stand
Tran
sp
irati
on
(m
m d
ay
-1)
Day of Year
Young Forest Old Forest Higher Transpiration Lower Transpiration
Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment
450 year-old conifer forest
Clearcut in 1975
Stream discharge data 1969-present Gauge
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Forest age effect turned ON
Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment
450 year-old conifer forest
Clearcut in 1975
Stream discharge data 1969-present
Forest age effect turned OFF
Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest
Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
100
10
1.0
0.1
0.01
Gauge
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Observed Modeled
Forest age effect turned ON
Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment
450 year-old conifer forest
Clearcut in 1975
Stream discharge data 1969-present
Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest
Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
3.8x more low flow with age effect
100
10
1.0
0.1
0.01
Gauge
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Observed Modeled
Forest age effect turned ON
Watershed 10, HJ Andrews, OR 0.1 km2 headwater catchment
450 year-old conifer forest
Clearcut in 1975
Stream discharge data 1969-present
Forest age effect turned OFF
Clearcut 1975 450 year-old forest
Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
3.8x more low flow with age effect
100
10
1.0
0.1
0.01
Gauge
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Observed Modeled
Effect of forest age on summer low flow scales up very well from tree stand small catchment
Moore et al 2004 this study
(and Perry 2007)
Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2
Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old
Stream discharge data, 1992-present
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Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2
Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old
Stream discharge data, 1992-present
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Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
Observed Modeled
Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2
Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old
Stream discharge data, 1992-present
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Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
Observed Modeled
S
tre
amfl
ow
, cfs
Observed Modeled
Observed February 5-7, 1996 rain-on-snow event
Mashel River Watershed, WA 209 km2
Mixture of forest stand ages, most less than 60 years-old
Stream discharge data, 1992-present
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Stre
amfl
ow
, mm
/day
Observed Modeled
S
tre
amfl
ow
, cfs
Observed Modeled
Observed February 5-7, 1996 rain-on-snow event Effect of forest age on summer low
flow scales up well from a headwater catchment in Oregon to the 2,000x larger, mixed-age Mashel watershed (no parameters were changed, only drivers)
Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?
6 cfs
11 cfs
Simulated September Minimum Flow Average for 2006-2014
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Actual
2 cfs
40 yr 100 yr Mashel Forest Landscape Age
Can longer forest harvest intervals increase summer streamflow for salmon recovery?
6 cfs
11 cfs
Simulated September Minimum Flow Average for 2006-2014
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Actual
2 cfs
40 yr 100 yr Mashel Forest Landscape Age
Yes, VELMA results indicate that establishment of older (>80 yr?) forest landscapes could substantially increase summer low flows compared to the present-day Mashel watershed
148 m
1460 m
Riparian Large Woody Debris Mashel Basin – VELMA Simulation, Year 2000
VISTAS 3D visualization of VELMA output
0 2 4 6 8 10 km USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Riparian Woody Debris
Mg C/ha
90
84
77
70
64
58
51
45
38
1
<0.5
Stream shade component (completed)
Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)
Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR
Stream shade component (completed)
Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)
Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR
Stream shade component (completed)
Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)
Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR
Stream shade component (completed)
Integration with VELMA (Jan 2017)
Penumbra: Stream Shade & Temperature Model Developer: Jonathan Halama
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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Stream shade time lapse, June 15 Calapooia River, OR
Climate Refuges Where and what type of restoration practices can help establish cold water refuges for salmon?
Aimee Fullerton, NOAA/UW
Riparian Shade
Snowpack
Groundwater
Hyporheic flow
Large wood
Blue = cold water
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
31 Joe Ebersole, EPA
32 icfi.com
Fish Habitat Modeling: Ecosystem Diagnosis & Treatment (EDT) Model
EDT is a fish life-cycle habitat model
Synthesize available information
Identify limiting habitat factors
Prioritize habitat restoration needs
Help managers design restoration
solutions to meet recovery targets
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Key goal: Transfer tools to NCF team VELMA-EDT Training Workshop, July 26-28, 2016
NCF model scenarios (examples) Identify salmon habitat restoration priorities:
Streamflow, LWD, temperature, sediments?
How much restoration & where
How long for restoration to have an impact?
Can restoration help mitigate effects of climate change?
Scenarios for balancing diverse objectives: salmon, timber, water quality & quantity, carbon sequestration, local forest sector jobs…
USEPA Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory
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