b]bsb]&(0ã ´ Öb11 } Â g 0:w b·bzb bìb b b b bup b.b ... = -3e-10x 5 + 5e-07x4 - 0.0002x3 +...
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FTA
1
2
3
2011
EU CIS
1
1.
2. 1. 2. 3.
3.
1. 2.
4.
1. 1. � 2. � 3. �
2. 250% 2008 2
2
y = -3E-10x5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x2 + 2.212x + 804.36R² = 0.6366
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1960
M1
1965
M1
1970
M1
1975
M1
1980
M1
1985
M1
1990
M1
1995
M1
2000
M1
2005
M1
2010
M1
y = -6E-14x5 + 7E-11x4 - 3E-08x3 + 1E-06x2 + 0.0008x - 0.0037R² = 0.1782
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1960
M1
1965
M1
1970
M1
1975
M1
1980
M1
1985
M1
1990
M1
1995
M1
2000
M1
2005
M1
2010
M1
3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
/
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
2000
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12000
1960
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1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
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4
1 2008 2
2
3
2007-8
• •
• 2 •
• • •
• •
•
• •
• •
•
•
•
2009
5
2-1
. 2001
2001
30 OTOP
ThaiGAP
2006 �
2009
2011 �
70
6
1952 1986
1960 1982
(1) 1974 1978
(2) 1984 1986
1966(
1975
1982 2009
2009 2011
2011
2010
2009
7
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
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2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
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FOB 60
FOB
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
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1996
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1997
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1998
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1999
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2000
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2001
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2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
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2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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8
2005/06
Poapongsakorn 2010
2009
9
WTO
2009/2010
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
( ) %
10.4ha)
10
2009/2010
11
• – 2009/2010 3 550 – 2010/2011 650
• 390
Cf. 2008/2009 • 600 • 55
2011
1. 30%�23% 2013 20% 2. 300 / 3. 15,000 / 4.
70 5. 15,000 /
20,000 / 6. PC LAN
12
1. 2008
2.
3.
4.
5.
900 1,000
20112011 8 10
1. 10 7 2. 3.
4. 5. 30 6.
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13
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(PP’BA) DWL
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14
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PP’DC) PP’D’C’)
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: (PP’DC)(PP’BA) DWL
Dead Weightloss
15
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DWL
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Dead Weightloss
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(PP’D’C) DWL
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DWL
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2009-2010
2 3
17
2011
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WTO
1. 2. 3. 4. : 5. WTO ASEAN 6. :
18
MCMR
MR* MC*
P*
� MR
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MR MC
19
0MR 1MC
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1994 5 4
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22
1. �
2. 2
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4.
23
1.
1970
1980
�
2000 2000
20102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(a) 33,000 32,529 32,108 34,447 34,569 36,194 35,833 35,827 35,917 38,540 38,940
5,200 3,477 3,729 3,241 3,813 4,060 5,250 4,500 4,558 4,830 5,535
(b) 8,000 5,349 5,737 4,986 5,866 6,246 8,077 6,923 7,012 7,431 8,515
a-b 25,000 27,180 26,371 29,461 28,703 29,948 27,756 28,904 28,905 31,109 30,425 / 228 218 240 231 237 217 223 221 235
2000
2002
24
2000
2000 ha
2008
2008
2001/4/4 46
2
2001
25
2007 2009 2007 100
2007 2008 2009
2007 102009 11
140163)
2007 2008 2009
2008
(6 181)
2008/3/25 78
/t
2007
2008
2009
26
(PP’BC) ABC
PP’BA)
P
P’
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B
2009/12/23 63
2010/11/04 109
27
2000
63 2030 380 ha320 ha
109 10t/h5,000t
63 400
28
WTO
�
63 30
54 2006 � 46 2007 � 39 2008
30
29
3,800 /kg 172009/8/10 40 9/9 40
2010 100 50 9 100
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2007
2008
2009
2010
2007 10 25 =100
2008 2009~10 2007
30
7500
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8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 128 9 3 4 7 8 9
2009 2010
2009 201009 10
2011
2010 109 2011
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31
63 2020 2.5
0MR
1MC0MC
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2 �
1. � 2. �
1. 2. 3. WTO
3. 4. � 5. �
1. 2. � � 3. � � 4.
34
2011 4 22
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/cr22-2-4.pdf
(2010) 2 21
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/nikokukan13-2.pdf
(2010) No.37
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/review/pdf/primaffreview2010-37-10.pdf
2011 22
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/kv_cr22-3.pdf
2011 No.42
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/review/pdf/primaffreview2011-42-5.pdf
2010 WTO �� � � 39
http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/kenkyu/kenkyuin_syokai/pdf/rekibun39.pdf
, Poapongsakorn Nipon (2010), “Tackling Corruption in Rice Price Intervention Program: Towards a Preventive Scheme”, Material for The 14th International Anti-Corruption Conference, 11 November 2010, Bangkok (http://iacconference.org/documents/Microsoft_PowerPoint_-_PeaceAndSecurityRestoringTrustThailandNiponPoapongsakorn.pdf 2011 1 26 ) Titapiwatanakun, Boonjit (2010), “Transformation of recent agricultural policies in selected APO countries: Price insurance program for agricultural products in Thailand”, Paper presented at “Workshop for Research on Agricultural Policies in Asia”, 19-21 January 2010, APO, Tokyo. USDA/FAS (2009a), “Price Insurance Starts to Replace Mortgage Scheme”, GRAIN Report, Number TH9161, http://gain.fas.usda.gov/
2009
2009No.164 2009 5
, , 2009) :
(1994),
2002
(2001)
2011 2010
35
GDP (100 US$)
GDP/ (US$) ( 100 US$)
2008 2008 2001-2003 2007 2008 GDP %
..
181,948 37,597.3 28,313 384,261 426,378 234.3
221,773 8,209.4 4,570 205,714
272,429 4,042.8 586 179,564 208,773 76.6
166,909 1,847.4 1,017 61,250 61,525 36.9
510,730 2,246.5 556 127,193 152,013 29.8
10,354 711.0 297 5,638
5,543 893.3 458 1,536 1,814 32.7
..
90,645 1,051.4 290 52,769 70,891 78.2
4,910,840 38,454.9 33,546 771,383
4,326,996 3,266.5 368 1,342,206 1,581,713 36.6
929,121 19,115.0 9,948 439,871 491,145 52.9
ASEAN
36
15-64%
65
(%)
15(%)
2008 2008 2008 2008
392 69.4 4.8 39.4
4,839 73.5 12.8 23.3
27,014 65.4 7.1 45.8
67,386 70.6 10.5 31.1
90,348 61.6 6.7 55.7
227,345 66.8 8.8 41.0
14,562 62.5 5.4 54.6
6,205 58.2 6.3 65.7
49,563 67.5 8.1 40.1
86,211 67.2 9.4 39.5
127,704 65.2 32.9 20.6
1,324,655 71.5 11.1 28.7
48,607 72.3 14.3 24.0
ASEAN
2003-2005 2002-2004 2007 2008 1984 2008
0.7 .. 0.0 ..
0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 5.7 0.3
33.8 14.7 10.2 .. 20.1 2.3
67.9 44.4 10.7 11.6 9.5 4.8
38.1 37.2 14.2 14.9 5.4 0.6
53.1 44.6 13.7 14.4 6.7 6.4
80.9 60.3 31.9 34.6 .. ..
79.7 35.5 34.7 .. ..
.. .. .. ..
74.0 59.9 20.4 22.1 .. ..
34.3 4.6 1.4 .. 0.7 0.6
60.5 44.1 11.1 11.3 5.7 0.4
19.4 8.7 2.9 2.5 0.8 ..
GDP(%)
ASEAN
37
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