b]bsb]&(0ã ´ Öb11 } Â g 0:w b·bzb bìb b b b bup b.b ... = -3e-10x 5 + 5e-07x4 - 0.0002x3 +...

37
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Page 1: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

FTA

1

2

3

2011

EU CIS

1

Page 2: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1.

2. 1. 2. 3.

3.

1. 2.

4.

1. 1. � 2. � 3. �

2. 250% 2008 2

2

Page 3: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

y = -3E-10x5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x2 + 2.212x + 804.36R² = 0.6366

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960

M1

1965

M1

1970

M1

1975

M1

1980

M1

1985

M1

1990

M1

1995

M1

2000

M1

2005

M1

2010

M1

y = -6E-14x5 + 7E-11x4 - 3E-08x3 + 1E-06x2 + 0.0008x - 0.0037R² = 0.1782

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1960

M1

1965

M1

1970

M1

1975

M1

1980

M1

1985

M1

1990

M1

1995

M1

2000

M1

2005

M1

2010

M1

3

Page 4: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

/

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

/

4

Page 5: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1 2008 2

2

3

2007-8

• •

• 2 •

• • •

• •

• •

• •

2009

5

Page 6: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2-1

. 2001

2001

30 OTOP

ThaiGAP

2006 �

2009

2011 �

70

6

Page 7: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1952 1986

1960 1982

(1) 1974 1978

(2) 1984 1986

1966(

1975

1982 2009

2009 2011

2011

2010

2009

7

Page 8: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

FOB 60

FOB

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

1992

/93

1993

/94

1994

/95

1995

/96

1996

/97

1997

/98

1998

/99

1999

/00

2000

/01

2001

/02

2002

/03

2003

/04

2004

/05

2005

/06

2006

/07

2007

/08

2008

/09

8

Page 9: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2005/06

Poapongsakorn 2010

2009

9

Page 10: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

WTO

2009/2010

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

( ) %

10.4ha)

10

Page 11: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2009/2010

11

Page 12: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

• – 2009/2010 3 550 – 2010/2011 650

• 390

Cf. 2008/2009 • 600 • 55

2011

1. 30%�23% 2013 20% 2. 300 / 3. 15,000 / 4.

70 5. 15,000 /

20,000 / 6. PC LAN

12

Page 13: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1. 2008

2.

3.

4.

5.

900 1,000

20112011 8 10

1. 10 7 2. 3.

4. 5. 30 6.

7. 200 390

60 4,000

8. 9.

13

Page 14: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2 2

FOB

PP’DC)

(PP’BA) DWL

P

D B

C A

P’

14

Page 15: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

FOB

P

D B

C A

P’

C’

D’

PP’DC) PP’D’C’)

(PP’BA) DWL

FOB

P

P’

A

B

C

D

: (PP’DC)(PP’BA) DWL

Dead Weightloss

15

Page 16: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

FOB

(PP’DC)

DWL

P

P’

A

B

C

D

Dead Weightloss

FOB

(PP’D’C) DWL

P

P’

A

B

C

D D’

16

Page 17: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

DWL

2001-2008

2009-2010

2 3

17

Page 18: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2011

�2009

WTO

1. 2. 3. 4. : 5. WTO ASEAN 6. :

18

Page 19: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

MCMR

MR* MC*

P*

� MR

� MC

MR MC

19

Page 20: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

0MR 1MC

0MC1MR

AB

C

0 1

1994 5 4

MR0�MR1 , MC0�MC1

20

Page 21: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2002

21

Page 22: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

0MR 1MC

0MC

1MR

A

B

C

D2MR

2MC

0 1MR MR�

1 2MR MR�

1 2MC MC�

0 1MC MC�

: 1997 2000

:

: 2006

: 2011

22

Page 23: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1. �

2. 2

3.

4.

23

Page 24: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

1.

1970

1980

2000 2000

20102000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

(a) 33,000 32,529 32,108 34,447 34,569 36,194 35,833 35,827 35,917 38,540 38,940

5,200 3,477 3,729 3,241 3,813 4,060 5,250 4,500 4,558 4,830 5,535

(b) 8,000 5,349 5,737 4,986 5,866 6,246 8,077 6,923 7,012 7,431 8,515

a-b 25,000 27,180 26,371 29,461 28,703 29,948 27,756 28,904 28,905 31,109 30,425 / 228 218 240 231 237 217 223 221 235

2000

2002

24

Page 25: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2000

2000 ha

2008

2008

2001/4/4 46

2

2001

25

Page 26: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2007 2009 2007 100

2007 2008 2009

2007 102009 11

140163)

2007 2008 2009

2008

(6 181)

2008/3/25 78

/t

2007

2008

2009

26

Page 27: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

(PP’BC) ABC

PP’BA)

P

P’

A C

B

2009/12/23 63

2010/11/04 109

27

Page 28: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2000

63 2030 380 ha320 ha

109 10t/h5,000t

63 400

28

Page 29: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

WTO

63 30

54 2006 � 46 2007 � 39 2008

30

29

Page 30: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

3,800 /kg 172009/8/10 40 9/9 40

2010 100 50 9 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2007

2008

2009

2010

2007 10 25 =100

2008 2009~10 2007

30

Page 31: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 128 9 3 4 7 8 9

2009 2010

2009 201009 10

2011

2010 109 2011

31

Page 32: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

63 2020 2.5

0MR

1MC0MC

1MR

AB

C

D

2MRMRx

MCx

XE

32

Page 33: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

: 2008

:

: 2009

MC1��MC0

MC0��MCxMR2��MRx

MR0��MR1MC0��MC1MR1��MR2

� 2001

33

Page 34: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2 �

1. � 2. �

1. 2. 3. WTO

3. 4. � 5. �

1. 2. � � 3. � � 4.

34

Page 35: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

2011 4 22

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/cr22-2-4.pdf

(2010) 2 21

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/nikokukan13-2.pdf

(2010) No.37

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/review/pdf/primaffreview2010-37-10.pdf

2011 22

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/project/pdf/kv_cr22-3.pdf

2011 No.42

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/koho/seika/review/pdf/primaffreview2011-42-5.pdf

2010 WTO �� � � 39

http://www.maff.go.jp/primaff/kenkyu/kenkyuin_syokai/pdf/rekibun39.pdf

, Poapongsakorn Nipon (2010), “Tackling Corruption in Rice Price Intervention Program: Towards a Preventive Scheme”, Material for The 14th International Anti-Corruption Conference, 11 November 2010, Bangkok (http://iacconference.org/documents/Microsoft_PowerPoint_-_PeaceAndSecurityRestoringTrustThailandNiponPoapongsakorn.pdf 2011 1 26 ) Titapiwatanakun, Boonjit (2010), “Transformation of recent agricultural policies in selected APO countries: Price insurance program for agricultural products in Thailand”, Paper presented at “Workshop for Research on Agricultural Policies in Asia”, 19-21 January 2010, APO, Tokyo. USDA/FAS (2009a), “Price Insurance Starts to Replace Mortgage Scheme”, GRAIN Report, Number TH9161, http://gain.fas.usda.gov/

2009

2009No.164 2009 5

, , 2009) :

(1994),

2002

(2001)

2011 2010

35

Page 36: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

GDP (100 US$)

GDP/ (US$) ( 100 US$)

2008 2008 2001-2003 2007 2008 GDP %

..

181,948 37,597.3 28,313 384,261 426,378 234.3

221,773 8,209.4 4,570 205,714

272,429 4,042.8 586 179,564 208,773 76.6

166,909 1,847.4 1,017 61,250 61,525 36.9

510,730 2,246.5 556 127,193 152,013 29.8

10,354 711.0 297 5,638

5,543 893.3 458 1,536 1,814 32.7

..

90,645 1,051.4 290 52,769 70,891 78.2

4,910,840 38,454.9 33,546 771,383

4,326,996 3,266.5 368 1,342,206 1,581,713 36.6

929,121 19,115.0 9,948 439,871 491,145 52.9

ASEAN

36

Page 37: B]BsB]&(0ã ´ ÖB11 } Â G 0:w B·BzB BìB B B B BUP B.B ... = -3E-10x 5 + 5E-07x4 - 0.0002x3 + 0.0198x 2 + 2.212x + 804.36 R² = 0.6366 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1960M1 1965M1

15-64%

65

(%)

15(%)

2008 2008 2008 2008

392 69.4 4.8 39.4

4,839 73.5 12.8 23.3

27,014 65.4 7.1 45.8

67,386 70.6 10.5 31.1

90,348 61.6 6.7 55.7

227,345 66.8 8.8 41.0

14,562 62.5 5.4 54.6

6,205 58.2 6.3 65.7

49,563 67.5 8.1 40.1

86,211 67.2 9.4 39.5

127,704 65.2 32.9 20.6

1,324,655 71.5 11.1 28.7

48,607 72.3 14.3 24.0

ASEAN

2003-2005 2002-2004 2007 2008 1984 2008

0.7 .. 0.0 ..

0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 5.7 0.3

33.8 14.7 10.2 .. 20.1 2.3

67.9 44.4 10.7 11.6 9.5 4.8

38.1 37.2 14.2 14.9 5.4 0.6

53.1 44.6 13.7 14.4 6.7 6.4

80.9 60.3 31.9 34.6 .. ..

79.7 35.5 34.7 .. ..

.. .. .. ..

74.0 59.9 20.4 22.1 .. ..

34.3 4.6 1.4 .. 0.7 0.6

60.5 44.1 11.1 11.3 5.7 0.4

19.4 8.7 2.9 2.5 0.8 ..

GDP(%)

ASEAN

37