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Europe divided? Attitudes to immigration ahead of the 2019
European elections
Dr. Lenka Dražanová
• Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to
immigration
• BUT country differences matter!
• Salience really matters for voting!
• BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU
• Europeans support common EU migration policy
• BUT big differences between countries and over time
• Good news: Europe more united than before
• Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries
more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever
Europe divided?
Observatory of Public Attitudes to MigrationOPAM 2.0
Different types of attitudes towards immigration
Attitudes
towards
policy
Evaluation
of specific
immigrant
groups
Opinion
about
immigrants
Perceived
effects of
immigration
Why do individuals differ?
Positive attitudes to immigration from outside EU (source: Eurobarometer)
2014 2018
Positive attitudes to immigration from the EU (source: Eurobarometer)
2014 2018
What do you think are the two most important issues
facing ___ at the moment? % saying immigration(source Eurobarometer, 2014-2018)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
May
20
12
Sep
20
12
Jan
20
13
May
20
13
Sep
20
13
Jan
20
14
May
20
14
Sep
20
14
Jan
20
15
May
20
15
Sep
20
15
Jan
20
16
May
20
16
Sep
20
16
Jan
20
17
May
20
17
Sep
20
17
Jan
20
18
Country Europe Personally
What do you think are the two most important issues
facing ___ at the moment? % saying immigration
Source: Eurobarometer, 2018
Country EU
What do you think are the two most important issues
facing the EU at the moment? % saying immigration
Source: Eurobarometer, 2014, 2018
2014 2018
% in favour of a common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer; all EU28 countries, 2014-2018)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%N
ov
20
14
Jan
20
15
Mar
20
15
May
20
15
Jul 2
01
5
Sep
20
15
No
v 2
01
5
Jan
20
16
Mar
20
16
May
20
16
Jul 2
01
6
Sep
20
16
No
v 2
01
6
Jan
20
17
Mar
20
17
May
20
17
Jul 2
01
7
Sep
20
17
No
v 2
01
7
Jan
20
18
Mar
20
18
May
20
18
For Against
Here’s the less good news…
Net positivity to a common European migration policy
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Czechia
Estonia
Poland
Hungary
Latvia
Slovakia
Austria
Finland
UK
Croatia
Romania
Denmark
Greece
France
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Italy
Portugal
Malta
Belgium
Lithuania
Cyprus
Ireland
Sweden
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Germany
Spain
Attitudes to a common European policy on
migration
(Source: Eurobarometer, 2014-2018)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No
v 2
01
4
Feb
20
15
May
20
15
Au
g 2
01
5
No
v 2
01
5
Feb
20
16
May
20
16
Au
g 2
01
6
No
v 2
01
6
Feb
20
17
May
20
17
Au
g 2
01
7
No
v 2
01
7
Feb
20
18
May
20
18
Germany for France for Italy for
Germany against France against Italy against
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
No
v 2
01
4
Feb
20
15
May
20
15
Au
g 2
01
5
No
v 2
01
5
Feb
20
16
May
20
16
Au
g 2
01
6
No
v 2
01
6
Feb
20
17
May
20
17
Au
g 2
01
7
No
v 2
01
7
Feb
20
18
May
20
18
Hungary for Poland for Czechia for
Hungary against Poland against Czechia against
Why differences between countries?
Commonplace
Unthreatening
Equal in status and power
People who cooperate
Untraditional
Threatening (to norms, values and
security)
Viewed as subordinate
People who compete for resources
PRO ANTI
Why do countries vary?
• Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to
immigration
• BUT country differences matter!
• Salience really matters for voting!
• BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU
• Europeans support common EU migration policy
• BUT big differences between countries and over time
• Good news: Europe more united than before
• Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries
more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever
Europe divided?
Thank you!
http://www.migrationpolicycentre.eu/opam/
Back-up slides
A common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer, 2017)
73% 70% 68% 71%
27% 30% 32% 29%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
15 - 24 y 25 - 39 y 40 - 54 y 55 + y
Age
For Against
69% 70% 66%75%
31% 30% 34%25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
no edu Up to 15 y 16-19 y 20+ y
Education
For Against
71% 70%
29% 30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Male Female
Gender
For Against
75% 72%65%
25% 28%35%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Left Centre Right
Ideology
For Against
What do you think are the two most important issues facing
the EU at the moment? % saying immigration in 2017
37%41% 43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
15 - 24 y 25 - 39 y 40 - 54 y 55 + y
Age
35% 36%42%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
noeducation
Up to 15 y 16-19 y 20+ y
Education
44%41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Male Female
Gender
39%43%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Left Centre Right
Ideology
What do you think are the two most important
issues facing your country at the moment?
% saying immigration
2014 2018
What do you think are the two most important issues facing
your country at the moment? % saying immigration
Age Education (age
left)
Gender Left - Right
What does the EU mean to you personally? (source Eurobarometer)
What does the EU mean to you personally?
(source Eurobarometer 2017)
Age Education (age
left)
Gender Left - Right
Immigration attitudes and foreign born population
(source ESS 2014)
(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)
Immigration attitudes and migrant integration
(source ESS 2014)
(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)
Immigration attitudes and migrant unemployment
(source ESS 2014)
(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)
Immigration attitudes and media coverage
(source ESS 2014)
(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)
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