Europe divided? Attitudes to immigration ahead of the 2019

European elections

Dr. Lenka Dražanová

• Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to

immigration

• BUT country differences matter!

• Salience really matters for voting!

• BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU

• Europeans support common EU migration policy

• BUT big differences between countries and over time

• Good news: Europe more united than before

• Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries

more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever

Europe divided?

Observatory of Public Attitudes to MigrationOPAM 2.0

Different types of attitudes towards immigration

Attitudes

towards

policy

Evaluation

of specific

immigrant

groups

Opinion

about

immigrants

Perceived

effects of

immigration

Why do individuals differ?

Positive attitudes to immigration from outside EU (source: Eurobarometer)

2014 2018

Positive attitudes to immigration from the EU (source: Eurobarometer)

2014 2018

What do you think are the two most important issues

facing ___ at the moment? % saying immigration(source Eurobarometer, 2014-2018)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

May

20

12

Sep

20

12

Jan

20

13

May

20

13

Sep

20

13

Jan

20

14

May

20

14

Sep

20

14

Jan

20

15

May

20

15

Sep

20

15

Jan

20

16

May

20

16

Sep

20

16

Jan

20

17

May

20

17

Sep

20

17

Jan

20

18

Country Europe Personally

What do you think are the two most important issues

facing ___ at the moment? % saying immigration

Source: Eurobarometer, 2018

Country EU

What do you think are the two most important issues

facing the EU at the moment? % saying immigration

Source: Eurobarometer, 2014, 2018

2014 2018

% in favour of a common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer; all EU28 countries, 2014-2018)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%N

ov

20

14

Jan

20

15

Mar

20

15

May

20

15

Jul 2

01

5

Sep

20

15

No

v 2

01

5

Jan

20

16

Mar

20

16

May

20

16

Jul 2

01

6

Sep

20

16

No

v 2

01

6

Jan

20

17

Mar

20

17

May

20

17

Jul 2

01

7

Sep

20

17

No

v 2

01

7

Jan

20

18

Mar

20

18

May

20

18

For Against

Here’s the less good news…

Net positivity to a common European migration policy

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Czechia

Estonia

Poland

Hungary

Latvia

Slovakia

Austria

Finland

UK

Croatia

Romania

Denmark

Greece

France

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Italy

Portugal

Malta

Belgium

Lithuania

Cyprus

Ireland

Sweden

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Germany

Spain

Attitudes to a common European policy on

migration

(Source: Eurobarometer, 2014-2018)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

v 2

01

4

Feb

20

15

May

20

15

Au

g 2

01

5

No

v 2

01

5

Feb

20

16

May

20

16

Au

g 2

01

6

No

v 2

01

6

Feb

20

17

May

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

No

v 2

01

7

Feb

20

18

May

20

18

Germany for France for Italy for

Germany against France against Italy against

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

No

v 2

01

4

Feb

20

15

May

20

15

Au

g 2

01

5

No

v 2

01

5

Feb

20

16

May

20

16

Au

g 2

01

6

No

v 2

01

6

Feb

20

17

May

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

No

v 2

01

7

Feb

20

18

May

20

18

Hungary for Poland for Czechia for

Hungary against Poland against Czechia against

Why differences between countries?

Commonplace

Unthreatening

Equal in status and power

People who cooperate

Untraditional

Threatening (to norms, values and

security)

Viewed as subordinate

People who compete for resources

PRO ANTI

Why do countries vary?

• Europeans, overall, becoming more positive to

immigration

• BUT country differences matter!

• Salience really matters for voting!

• BUT far higher as most important issue affecting EU

• Europeans support common EU migration policy

• BUT big differences between countries and over time

• Good news: Europe more united than before

• Bad news: Remaining individuals and countries

more mobilised and dissatisfied than ever

Europe divided?

Thank you!

http://www.migrationpolicycentre.eu/opam/

Back-up slides

A common European policy on migration (source: Eurobarometer, 2017)

73% 70% 68% 71%

27% 30% 32% 29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15 - 24 y 25 - 39 y 40 - 54 y 55 + y

Age

For Against

69% 70% 66%75%

31% 30% 34%25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

no edu Up to 15 y 16-19 y 20+ y

Education

For Against

71% 70%

29% 30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Male Female

Gender

For Against

75% 72%65%

25% 28%35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Left Centre Right

Ideology

For Against

What do you think are the two most important issues facing

the EU at the moment? % saying immigration in 2017

37%41% 43% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

15 - 24 y 25 - 39 y 40 - 54 y 55 + y

Age

35% 36%42%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

noeducation

Up to 15 y 16-19 y 20+ y

Education

44%41%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Male Female

Gender

39%43%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Left Centre Right

Ideology

What do you think are the two most important

issues facing your country at the moment?

% saying immigration

2014 2018

What do you think are the two most important issues facing

your country at the moment? % saying immigration

Age Education (age

left)

Gender Left - Right

What does the EU mean to you personally? (source Eurobarometer)

What does the EU mean to you personally?

(source Eurobarometer 2017)

Age Education (age

left)

Gender Left - Right

Immigration attitudes and foreign born population

(source ESS 2014)

(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

Immigration attitudes and migrant integration

(source ESS 2014)

(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

Immigration attitudes and migrant unemployment

(source ESS 2014)

(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)

Immigration attitudes and media coverage

(source ESS 2014)

(figure from Messing-Sagvari: Looking Behind the Culture of Fear 2018)