atlantic basin tropical cyclone climatology and atlantic...

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Preliminary Assessment of 2017 Atlantic Hurricane

Season

Phil Klotzbach

Geophysical Vortices

Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Prediction

Phil KlotzbachDepartment of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

May 18, 2018

Florida Governor’s Hurricane Conference

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OutlineIntroduction

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

2017 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

2018 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Outlook

New Products

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In Memory of Bill Gray (1929-2016)

Klotzbach, P. J., J. C. L. Chan, P. J. Fitzpatrick, W. M. Frank, C. W. Landsea, and J. L. McBride, 2017: The science of William M. Gray: His contributions to the knowledge of tropical meteorology and tropical cyclones. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 98, 2311-2336.

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Introducing New Co-Author Michael Bell

- Received M.S. in Atmospheric Science from Colorado State University (2006)

- Received Ph.D. in Meteorology from Naval Postgraduate School (2010)

- Joined faculty at Colorado State University in 2016

- Specializes in study of mesoscale structure of tropical cyclones from genesis to extratropicaltransition

- Recipient of Presidential Early Career Award

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“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future”

HOWEVER…

“You can see a lot by looking”

Yogi Berra

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August – October SSTs: Ten Most Active minus Ten Least Active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons since 1950

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-5 0 5

Zonal Wind (u) ms-1

TROPOPAUSE (16 km)

a ba – fewer TCs (El Niño)

b – more TCs (La Niña)

Vertical Wind Profile in the Caribbean and western part

of Main Development Region (10-20°N; 90-50°W)

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Klotzbach, P. J., S. G. Bowen, R. Pielke Jr., and M. M. Bell, 2018: Continental United States landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.

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US Population by Region

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Square Footage of Average Single-Family Home by Region

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1926 2016

1926 Great Miami Hurricane - >$200 Billion Economic Damage(if it were to occur today)

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Emanuel et al. (2017)

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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Forecast Parameter

Observed 2017 Atlantic TC

Activity

Atlantic Full Season 1981-2010 Median

2017 as Percentage of

Full Season Median

2017 All-Time (Since 1851) Full Season

RankAll-Time Record

(Year)

Named Storms (NS) 17 12.0 142% T-9 28 (2005)

Named Storm Days (NSD) 93.00 60.1 155% T-9 126.25 (2005)

Hurricanes (H) 10 6.5 154% T-8 15 (2005)

Hurricane Days (HD) 51.75 21.3 243% 6 61.50 (1893 & 1995)

Major Hurricanes (MH) 6 2.0 300% T-3 7 (1961 & 2005)

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 19.25 3.9 494% 6 24.50 (1961)

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 225 92 245% 7 259 (1933)

2017 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

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ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECASTS FOR 2017

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Median(in parentheses)

6 April 2017

Update1 June 2017

Update5 July 2017

Update4 August

2017

Observed 2017 Total

% of 1981-2010 Median

Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 11 14 15 16 17 142%Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) 50 60 70 70 91.25 152%Hurricanes (H) (6.5) 4 6 8 8 10 154%Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) 16 25 35 35 51.25 241%Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 2 2 3 3 6 300%Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) 4 5 7 7 19.25 494%Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92)

75 100 135 135 226 246%

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)

85 110 140 140 231 224%

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August-October 2017 minus August-October (2006 to 2016)

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Hurricane Harvey

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Hurricane Harvey Notable Records

- $90-$150 Billion USD in economic damage

- First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Carla (1961) and in the United States since Charley (2004)

- Ended the longest-running mainland U.S. landfalling major hurricane drought at 4323 days (Wilma-2005)

- 60.58” rainfall in Nederland, TX – shattering the prior continental and U.S. records for hurricane-related precipitation. Prior record was 48” for continental U.S. (set in Texas with TS Amelia) and 52” for entire U.S. (Hiki-1950)

Texas Landfall Intensity: 115 Knots, 938 mb

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Hurricane Irma

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Hurricane Irma Notable Records

- 180 mph max winds – strongest Atlantic storm on record outside of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean

- 3.25 days as Cat. 5 hurricane – tied with the Cuba Hurricane of 1932 for longest-lived Atlantic Cat. 5 hurricane on record

- 65.0 Accumulated Cyclone Energy units generated – the second most in the satellite era – trailing Ivan with 70.4 ACE in 2004

Storm Records

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Hurricane Irma Notable Records

- >$50 Billion USD in economic damage

- Strongest storm (180 mph max winds) on record to impact Leeward Islands –previous strongest were David (1979) & Lake Okeechobee (1928) – 160 mph

- First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Cuba since 1924

- Mainland US Landfall: 115 knots, 931 mb – Tied with Carla (1961) for 10th

lowest landfall pressure for continental US hurricane on record

- First time two Category 4 hurricanes (along with Harvey) to make mainland US landfall in same year

Landfall Facts

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What Could Have HappenedIrma Advisory 43 Forecast Track

What Did HappenIrma Actual Track

Everglades City

Naples

Ft. Myers Beach

Everglades City

Naples

Ft. Myers Beach

5 pm Saturday, September 9Landfall Marco Island

3:30 pm Sunday, September 10National Hurricane Center

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HurricaneMaria

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Hurricane Maria Notable Records

- >60 Billion USD in economic damage

- 908 mb lifetime lowest central pressure – lowest in eastern Caribbean on record

- First Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in Dominica on record

- First Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932 (San Ciprian Hurricane)

- Strongest hurricane to make landfall in Puerto Rico since 1928 (San Felipe Segundo Hurricane)

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Initial Outlook

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Initial Outlook

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Forecast ParameterStatistical Forecast

FinalForecast

1981-2010 Median

Named Storms (NS) 11.6 14 12.0

Named Storm Days (NSD) 59.6 70 60.1

Hurricanes (H) 6.8 7 6.5

Hurricane Days (HD) 27.7 30 21.3

Major Hurricanes (MH) 3.1 3 2.0

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 7.5 7 3.9

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 115 130 92

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) 125 135 103

2018 FORECAST AS OF 5 APRIL 2018

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EQ.

April Forecast Predictors

MarchSLP

Jan-Mar SST`

ECMWF SST Forecast

1`4

` 3`

February-March SLP

2`

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NS NSD H HD MH MHD ACE NTC

1960 8 33.50 4 15.00 2 8.50 73 90

1967 8 58.00 6 36.25 1 5.75 122 102

1996 13 79.00 9 45.00 6 13.00 166 192

2006 10 58.00 5 21.25 2 2.00 83 87

2011 19 89.75 7 26.00 4 4.50 126 145

MEAN 11.6 63.7 6.2 28.7 3.0 6.8 114 123

2018 Forecast 14 70 7 30 3 7 130 135

BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2018 (APRIL FORECAST)

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El Niño

La Niña

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El Niño

La Niña

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Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific since May 2017

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Observed and Predicted Low-Level Winds Averaged Across the Equatorial Region

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Late November 2017 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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December 2017 through mid-May 2018 Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

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Late March 2018 minus late November 2017 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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Late March Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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April through Mid May 2018 Sea Level Pressure Anomalies

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Mid May minus late March 2018 Anomalous SST Change

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Mid May Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

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NOAA Climate Model Seasonal Forecast

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Date5

April31

May2

July2

Aug

SeasonalForecast

X X X X

2018Forecast Schedule

2018Forecast Schedule

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2018 PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS (20th

CENTURY PROBABILITIES IN PARENTHESES)

2018 PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL IN

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS (20th

CENTURY PROBABILITIES IN PARENTHESES)

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 63% (52%)

2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida – 39% (31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 38% (30%)

4) Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W) – 52% (42%)

1) Entire U.S. coastline – 63% (52%)

2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida – 39% (31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 38% (30%)

4) Caribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W) – 52% (42%)

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Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

Currently Available at the following URL:

Currently Available at the following URL:

In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State University,

Bridgewater MA

In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State University,

Bridgewater MA

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricanehttp://www.e-transit.org/hurricane

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2018 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in Parentheses)2018 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in Parentheses)

State Hurricane Impact Prob. MH Impact Prob.

Florida 62% (51%) 27% (21%)

Louisiana 38% (30%) 15% (12%)

Massachusetts 9% (7%) 3% (2%)

Mississippi 14% (11%) 6% (4%)

New York 10% (8%) 4% (3%)

North Carolina 36% (28%) 10% (8%)

Texas 42% (33%) 15% (12%)

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2018 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in Parentheses)2018 Probabilities (20th Century Probabilities in Parentheses)

Country/Island Hurricane within 100 Miles

MH within 100 Miles

The Bahamas 62% (51%) 38% (30%)

Cuba 63% (52%) 36% (28%)

Haiti 35% (27%) 17% (13%)

Jamaica 32% (25%) 15% (11%)

Mexico 68% (57%) 29% (23%)

Puerto Rico 37% (29%) 17% (13%)

US Virgin Islands 38% (30%) 16% (12%)

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Harvey

Irma

Nate

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New ProductsNew ProductsReal-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Statistics Website:

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

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http://www.seasonalhurricanepredictions.orgContributing Forecast Groups

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New ProductsNew ProductsSeasonal Hurricane Forecast Compilation Website

http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org

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Arago’s Admonition:

“Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

Arago’s Admonition:

“Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

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Contact Info:

Phil Klotzbach

Email: philk@atmos.colostate.edu

Web: http://tropical.colostate.edu

Twitter: @philklotzbach

Facebook: CSU Tropical Meteorology Project

Contact Info:

Phil Klotzbach

Email: philk@atmos.colostate.edu

Web: http://tropical.colostate.edu

Twitter: @philklotzbach

Facebook: CSU Tropical Meteorology Project

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