“alaska” lccs webinar april 1 , 2013 pis: david mcguire; co-pi: scott rupp;

“Alaska” LCCs WebinarApril 1, 2013

PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp; Co-Is: Vladimir Romanovsky, Eugenie Euskirchen, Sergei Marchenko

University of Alaska Fairbanks

The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)for Alaska and Northwest Canada

A collaborative research project for the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the

Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

Research Team

David McGuire, PIInstitute of Arctic Biology

Scott Rupp, Co-PIScenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning

Vladimir Romanovsky, Co-IGeophysical Institute

Eugenie Euskirchen, Co-IInstitute of Arctic Biology

Sergei Marchenko, Co-IGeophysical Institute

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

What is the IEM?

The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change in Alaska and Northwest Canada through providing:

• A common framework for forecasting landscape change in the region in response to climate- and land cover/use driven changes in vegetation, disturbance, hydrology and permafrost

• Production of maps and other products related to landscape changes in ecosystem structure (e.g., composition of shrubs vs. sedges in tundra or conifer vs. deciduous trees in forests) and function (e.g., production of forage used by herbivores)

• A quantification of the uncertainty in expected outcomes (e.g., by the consideration of different climate scenarios, different climate models, aspects of uncertainty in the IEM framework)

• A team to help in the development of impact models that can use IEM products to address assessments of specific resource management responses to landscape changes

• A team to help in conducting climate-change impact assessments that can be used to help identify adaptation and management responses to forecasted landscape-scale changes that are projected to impact the management of natural resources.

Spatial Domain:

What is the IEM?

The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada will provide a support tool to inform:

• Response of ecosystems to climate and land cover/use change• Processes that affect species and habitats• Development of impact models• Assessments of natural resource responses• Adaptation and management responses

What is the IEM?

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

What is the IEM Framework?

Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including:

• Fish and Wildlife Impacts• Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species• Protection of Trust Species• Biological Carbon Sequestration• Wildland Fire Impacts• Water Availability and Water Quality• Sea-ice and Glacier Loss• Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration• Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (Society Resilence)• Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of

Fish and Wildlife Habitat)

What is the IEM Framework?

Many of the resource management challenges require information on how climate and land cover/use change will impact:

• air and soil temperatures• snowfall• rain on snow• ice-free season• growing season• permafrost• stream flow• wildfire• coastal erosion• glaciers

ClimateChange

Integrated Ecosystem Model

Fire Permafrost

Hydrology

What is the IEM Framework?

Vegetation

ClimateChange

Integrated Ecosystem Model

Fire Permafrost

Hydrology

canopy cover

firevegetation

vegetationfirehydrology

thermokarstHabitatChange

FireManagement

Animal Performance

vegetationproductivityhydrology

HypotheticalModel

output x

output y

Impact Models

Vegetation

What is the IEM Framework

ClimateChange

Integrated Ecosystem Model

Fire Permafrost

Hydrology

canopy cover

firevegetation

vegetationfirehydrology

thermokarstHabitatChange

FireManagement

Animal Performance

vegetationproductivityhydrology

HypotheticalModel

output x

output y

Impact Models

Vegetation

Conservation & ResourceManagement

Decisions

Stakeholders

Communication of Needs

What is the IEM Framework?

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

What are the Components of the IEM?

Climate

Fire Permafrost

HydrologyVegetation

What are the Components of the IEM?

Burned area

Fire Severity

ALFRESCO

DOS-DVM-TEM

GIPL-2

Soil m

oistur

e

Moss &

Or

ganic

sPla

nt Fu

nctio

nal

Types

Vegetation

type

Soil Thermal Properties

Downscaled GCM Data

What are the Components of the IEM?

Vegetation

ClimateChange

Integrated Ecosystem Model

Fire Permafrost

Hydrology

What are the Components of the IEM?

Vegetation

=

canopy cover

probability of fire

species composition

vegetation cover

probability of fire

surface hydrology

probability of thermokarst HabitatChangeModels

FireManagement

Models

Animal Performance

Models

vegetation cover

biomass productivity

surface hydrology

HypotheticalModel

model output x

model output y

Impact Models

What are the Components of the IEM?

Conservation & Resource

ManagementDecisions

Other stakeholder

groups

Communication of Needs

Alaska IEM

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

Spatial Domain:

Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

Together, Alaska and northwest Canada LCCs can: Jointly address state- or region-wide information

needs Serve as a forum for learning and information

exchange At multiple levels

Facilitate communication and collaboration Among agencies/organizations Across disciplines Across jurisdictional boundaries

The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada and the Alaska Climate Science Center can help with cross LCC coordination.

LCC Coordination

Assessing the status of baseline data

Coordinated observations (detecting change)

Understanding relationships (understanding change)

Projecting future states (forecasting change)

Adaptation framework and best management practices (responding to change)

Common LCC Categories of Activity

Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including (from www.doi.gov/lcc):• Fish and Wildlife Impacts (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Protection of Trust Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC) (IEM)• Biological Carbon Sequestration (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Wildland Fire Impacts (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Water Availability and Water Quality (ALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Sea-ice and Glacier Loss (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM?)• Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration (WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (ALCC, WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish

and Wildlife Habitat) (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)

To address these issues requires the development of impact models that can use outputs from the IEM. The IEM team is ready to work with people developing impact models!

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

IEM Activities

Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.

Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)

Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics Model Development (2012-2013) Model Integration and Application (2013-2014) Impact Model Development and Application (Caribou Animal Performance?; 2014-

2016) Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model

Model Development (2012-2013) Model Integration and Application (2014-2015) Impact Model Development and Application (Shorebird Impact Model?; 2015-2016)

Development of Wetland Dynamics Model Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) Model Development (2014) Model Integration and Application (2015-2016)

Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) – Includes Southeast Alaska

IEM Products

Climate Historical and projected climate data for several scenarios of

climate change and for several climate models (available) Soil Properties

Permafrost distribution, active layer thickness (2013, with updates)

Disturbance Historical and projected area burned (historical available,

projected 2013) Susceptibility to thermokarst (2013) Thermokarst disturbance scenarios and landscape change (2014)

Landcover and Vegetation Projected treeline (2013, updates) Future distribution of vegetation types (2013, updates)

Ecosystem Dynamics Carbon fluxes, net primary productivity (2013, updates)

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

IEM Accomplishments and Activities to Date

Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses. http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php

Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue) ALFRESCO and DOS-DVM-TEM are currently exchanging data each time

step, next step is to exchange data with GIPL2 Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics

Model development largely completed in 2012, model calibration and testing are currently occurring, plan is for first model application to be completed by July 2013

Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model Developed a conceptual approach to model development in 2012 (produced a white

paper) Currently developing the code for the model according to a schedule for completion by

end of 2013 Development of Wetland Dynamics Model

Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) Developed Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal fen application in 2011-2012 Development of Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal bog application in 2013

Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) Working on Calibrations, model application to be completed in 2013

AcknowledgementsResearch Scientists Research

Associates Mark Waldrop Bob BoltonPostdoctoral Fellows Graduate

Students Kirsten Barrett Tobey CarmanAmy Breen Winslow Hansen Zhaosheng Fan Elchin JafarovHelene Genet Technical StaffReginald Muskett Alec BennettFengming Yuan Tom Kurkowski Yujin Zhang Dustin RiceStephanie McAfee Michael Lindgren

DOI Alaska Climate Science CenterArctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal,

and North Pacific LCCs

Presentation Outline

I. What is the IEM Project?

II. What is the IEM Framework?

III. What are the Components of the IEM?

IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs

V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?

VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?

VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?

Where can you learn more about the IEM?

Further information is available at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15and http://arcticlcc.org/projects/landscape/integrated-ecosystem-model-iem-for-alaska/and soon at a new location on the Alaska Climate Science Center web site.

Or contact Dave McGuire (admcguire@alaska.edu; 907-474-6242), Scott Rupp (tsrupp@alaska.edu; 907-474-7535), or Amy Breen (albreen@alaska.edu; 907-474-6927)

Questions?