“alaska” lccs webinar april 1 , 2013 pis: david mcguire; co-pi: scott rupp;
DESCRIPTION
T he Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada A collaborative research project for the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. “Alaska” LCCs Webinar April 1 , 2013 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
“Alaska” LCCs WebinarApril 1, 2013
PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp; Co-Is: Vladimir Romanovsky, Eugenie Euskirchen, Sergei Marchenko
University of Alaska Fairbanks
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)for Alaska and Northwest Canada
A collaborative research project for the DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the
Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
Research Team
David McGuire, PIInstitute of Arctic Biology
Scott Rupp, Co-PIScenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning
Vladimir Romanovsky, Co-IGeophysical Institute
Eugenie Euskirchen, Co-IInstitute of Arctic Biology
Sergei Marchenko, Co-IGeophysical Institute
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What is the IEM?
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change in Alaska and Northwest Canada through providing:
• A common framework for forecasting landscape change in the region in response to climate- and land cover/use driven changes in vegetation, disturbance, hydrology and permafrost
• Production of maps and other products related to landscape changes in ecosystem structure (e.g., composition of shrubs vs. sedges in tundra or conifer vs. deciduous trees in forests) and function (e.g., production of forage used by herbivores)
• A quantification of the uncertainty in expected outcomes (e.g., by the consideration of different climate scenarios, different climate models, aspects of uncertainty in the IEM framework)
• A team to help in the development of impact models that can use IEM products to address assessments of specific resource management responses to landscape changes
• A team to help in conducting climate-change impact assessments that can be used to help identify adaptation and management responses to forecasted landscape-scale changes that are projected to impact the management of natural resources.
Spatial Domain:
What is the IEM?
The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada will provide a support tool to inform:
• Response of ecosystems to climate and land cover/use change• Processes that affect species and habitats• Development of impact models• Assessments of natural resource responses• Adaptation and management responses
What is the IEM?
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What is the IEM Framework?
Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including:
• Fish and Wildlife Impacts• Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species• Protection of Trust Species• Biological Carbon Sequestration• Wildland Fire Impacts• Water Availability and Water Quality• Sea-ice and Glacier Loss• Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration• Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (Society Resilence)• Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of
Fish and Wildlife Habitat)
What is the IEM Framework?
Many of the resource management challenges require information on how climate and land cover/use change will impact:
• air and soil temperatures• snowfall• rain on snow• ice-free season• growing season• permafrost• stream flow• wildfire• coastal erosion• glaciers
ClimateChange
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire Permafrost
Hydrology
What is the IEM Framework?
Vegetation
ClimateChange
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire Permafrost
Hydrology
canopy cover
firevegetation
vegetationfirehydrology
thermokarstHabitatChange
FireManagement
Animal Performance
vegetationproductivityhydrology
HypotheticalModel
output x
output y
Impact Models
Vegetation
What is the IEM Framework
ClimateChange
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire Permafrost
Hydrology
canopy cover
firevegetation
vegetationfirehydrology
thermokarstHabitatChange
FireManagement
Animal Performance
vegetationproductivityhydrology
HypotheticalModel
output x
output y
Impact Models
Vegetation
Conservation & ResourceManagement
Decisions
Stakeholders
Communication of Needs
What is the IEM Framework?
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What are the Components of the IEM?
Climate
Fire Permafrost
HydrologyVegetation
What are the Components of the IEM?
Burned area
Fire Severity
ALFRESCO
DOS-DVM-TEM
GIPL-2
Soil m
oistur
e
Moss &
Or
ganic
sPla
nt Fu
nctio
nal
Types
Vegetation
type
Soil Thermal Properties
Downscaled GCM Data
What are the Components of the IEM?
Vegetation
ClimateChange
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire Permafrost
Hydrology
What are the Components of the IEM?
Vegetation
=
canopy cover
probability of fire
species composition
vegetation cover
probability of fire
surface hydrology
probability of thermokarst HabitatChangeModels
FireManagement
Models
Animal Performance
Models
vegetation cover
biomass productivity
surface hydrology
HypotheticalModel
model output x
model output y
Impact Models
What are the Components of the IEM?
Conservation & Resource
ManagementDecisions
Other stakeholder
groups
Communication of Needs
Alaska IEM
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
Spatial Domain:
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
Together, Alaska and northwest Canada LCCs can: Jointly address state- or region-wide information
needs Serve as a forum for learning and information
exchange At multiple levels
Facilitate communication and collaboration Among agencies/organizations Across disciplines Across jurisdictional boundaries
The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada and the Alaska Climate Science Center can help with cross LCC coordination.
LCC Coordination
Assessing the status of baseline data
Coordinated observations (detecting change)
Understanding relationships (understanding change)
Projecting future states (forecasting change)
Adaptation framework and best management practices (responding to change)
Common LCC Categories of Activity
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management including (from www.doi.gov/lcc):• Fish and Wildlife Impacts (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Protection of Trust Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC) (IEM)• Biological Carbon Sequestration (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Wildland Fire Impacts (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Water Availability and Water Quality (ALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Sea-ice and Glacier Loss (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM?)• Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration (WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (ALCC, WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)• Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish
and Wildlife Habitat) (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
To address these issues requires the development of impact models that can use outputs from the IEM. The IEM team is ready to work with people developing impact models!
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
IEM Activities
Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.
Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)
Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics Model Development (2012-2013) Model Integration and Application (2013-2014) Impact Model Development and Application (Caribou Animal Performance?; 2014-
2016) Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model
Model Development (2012-2013) Model Integration and Application (2014-2015) Impact Model Development and Application (Shorebird Impact Model?; 2015-2016)
Development of Wetland Dynamics Model Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) Model Development (2014) Model Integration and Application (2015-2016)
Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) – Includes Southeast Alaska
IEM Products
Climate Historical and projected climate data for several scenarios of
climate change and for several climate models (available) Soil Properties
Permafrost distribution, active layer thickness (2013, with updates)
Disturbance Historical and projected area burned (historical available,
projected 2013) Susceptibility to thermokarst (2013) Thermokarst disturbance scenarios and landscape change (2014)
Landcover and Vegetation Projected treeline (2013, updates) Future distribution of vegetation types (2013, updates)
Ecosystem Dynamics Carbon fluxes, net primary productivity (2013, updates)
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
IEM Accomplishments and Activities to Date
Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses. http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php
Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue) ALFRESCO and DOS-DVM-TEM are currently exchanging data each time
step, next step is to exchange data with GIPL2 Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics
Model development largely completed in 2012, model calibration and testing are currently occurring, plan is for first model application to be completed by July 2013
Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model Developed a conceptual approach to model development in 2012 (produced a white
paper) Currently developing the code for the model according to a schedule for completion by
end of 2013 Development of Wetland Dynamics Model
Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013) Developed Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal fen application in 2011-2012 Development of Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal bog application in 2013
Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014) Working on Calibrations, model application to be completed in 2013
AcknowledgementsResearch Scientists Research
Associates Mark Waldrop Bob BoltonPostdoctoral Fellows Graduate
Students Kirsten Barrett Tobey CarmanAmy Breen Winslow Hansen Zhaosheng Fan Elchin JafarovHelene Genet Technical StaffReginald Muskett Alec BennettFengming Yuan Tom Kurkowski Yujin Zhang Dustin RiceStephanie McAfee Michael Lindgren
DOI Alaska Climate Science CenterArctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal,
and North Pacific LCCs
Presentation Outline
I. What is the IEM Project?
II. What is the IEM Framework?
III. What are the Components of the IEM?
IV. Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V. What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI. What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII. Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
Where can you learn more about the IEM?
Further information is available at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15and http://arcticlcc.org/projects/landscape/integrated-ecosystem-model-iem-for-alaska/and soon at a new location on the Alaska Climate Science Center web site.
Or contact Dave McGuire ([email protected]; 907-474-6242), Scott Rupp ([email protected]; 907-474-7535), or Amy Breen ([email protected]; 907-474-6927)
Questions?