25+ reasons why predicting ctr from rankings is impossible

Predicting impact of SEO

Wil ReynoldsAssociate

@wilreynolds

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Makes sense

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Keyword Volume (x) Click Through Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x)Conversion Value

ROI

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Keyword Volume + Cost

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Multiplied By

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Click Through Rate

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Multiplied By

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Conversion Rate

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Multiplied By

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Conversion Value

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33,000 Searches (x) 1.04 CTR @ #10343.2 Visitors

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343.2 Visitors (x).18% conv. rate (x).62 Conversions

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.62 Conversions/mo(x) 12 months

7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000

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You Us

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Easy, right?

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Problem, predicting

search volume and CTR is impossible

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#1 – Search Volume

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Impacted by NewsFall out of FavorChange in how we searchGoogle gets SmarterGoogle Changes Behavior

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News

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Fall out of Favor

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Fall out of Favor

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Change in how we search

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Google Gets Smarter

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Google Changes Behavior

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#2 – Click Through Rate

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CarouselGoogle’s Comparison AdsMobile ChangesPPC + SEO impacts CTR

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Carousel

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PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

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PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

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“SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP”-SEER Study 2013

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Tale of 2 searches

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Search #1 “SEO Company”

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7 – Philly2 – National1 – Review0 - Atlanta

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Search #2First search

“Things to do in Atlanta”Second search

“SEO Company”

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Impact CTR?

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Amazon, Trusted + Prime

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Get more branded search?

Probably get more rankings

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Cut that TV campaign, rankings might slide…

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Mobile Search changes1 – How we search2 – What we see (vs Desktop)

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ImpactOn

CTR?(Call + Map)

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How confident are you NOW?

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• Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop?• Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW?• Is your PPC ad showing?• Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile?• Is that person in your circles?• Have they searched for a different city before?• Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured?• Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query,

which increased your rank later for certain people but not others?• Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos?• Have they been to your site before?• Are branded competitors moving up?• Is Google launching a test?• Where is the person located, was location detection accurate?• Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?

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Each of those questions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.

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Predicting CTR w/ any degree of confidence is impossiblemaking predicting impact reckless

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I can give you a number,I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it90% of the time

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Have you ever been @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?

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Online Leads to Offline

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Build content high in the funnel

Probably get more conversions

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If we can get content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.

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“If we can be there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”

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I propose we look to get better…EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.)Theory + Implement + AnalyzeTweak, Improve, Measure, Win.