Predicting impact of SEO

Wil ReynoldsAssociate

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

Makes sense

3

@wilreynolds

Keyword Volume (x) Click Through Rate (x) Conversion Rate (x)Conversion Value

ROI

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

Keyword Volume + Cost

@wilreynolds

Multiplied By

@wilreynolds

Click Through Rate

@wilreynolds

Multiplied By

@wilreynolds

Conversion Rate

@wilreynolds

Multiplied By

@wilreynolds

Conversion Value

12

@wilreynolds

33,000 Searches (x) 1.04 CTR @ #10343.2 Visitors

13

@wilreynolds

343.2 Visitors (x).18% conv. rate (x).62 Conversions

14

@wilreynolds

.62 Conversions/mo(x) 12 months

7.5 Conversions @ $150k = $1,125,000

@wilreynolds

You Us

16

@wilreynolds

Easy, right?

@wilreynolds

Problem, predicting

search volume and CTR is impossible

@wilreynolds

19

@wilreynolds

#1 – Search Volume

@wilreynolds

Impacted by NewsFall out of FavorChange in how we searchGoogle gets SmarterGoogle Changes Behavior

@wilreynolds

News

@wilreynolds

Fall out of Favor

@wilreynolds

Fall out of Favor

@wilreynolds

Change in how we search

@wilreynolds

Google Gets Smarter

@wilreynolds

Google Changes Behavior

27

@wilreynolds

#2 – Click Through Rate

@wilreynolds

CarouselGoogle’s Comparison AdsMobile ChangesPPC + SEO impacts CTR

@wilreynolds

Carousel

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

@wilreynolds

PPC Ad + SEO = More SEO traffic

37

@wilreynolds

“SEO CTR rises by 416% (brand) & rises by 125% (non-brand) When a PPC ad is also on the SERP”-SEER Study 2013

@wilreynolds

Tale of 2 searches

39

@wilreynolds

Search #1 “SEO Company”

40

@wilreynolds

7 – Philly2 – National1 – Review0 - Atlanta

41

@wilreynolds

Search #2First search

“Things to do in Atlanta”Second search

“SEO Company”

42

@wilreynolds

Impact CTR?

@wilreynolds

Amazon, Trusted + Prime

@wilreynolds

Get more branded search?

Probably get more rankings

45

@wilreynolds

Cut that TV campaign, rankings might slide…

@wilreynolds

Mobile Search changes1 – How we search2 – What we see (vs Desktop)

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

ImpactOn

CTR?(Call + Map)

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

How confident are you NOW?

51

@wilreynolds

• Is the Map showing? & is it mobile vs desktop?• Is mobile growing more than desktop for that KW?• Is your PPC ad showing?• Is a Click to Call Ad showing on mobile?• Is that person in your circles?• Have they searched for a different city before?• Ranking is lower if site is improperly configured?• Did you get the person to visit from a “how much to save” query,

which increased your rank later for certain people but not others?• Is your brand trusted in SERP, like Amazon/Zappos?• Have they been to your site before?• Are branded competitors moving up?• Is Google launching a test?• Where is the person located, was location detection accurate?• Is PPC showing for your brand, how many other ads?

@wilreynolds

Each of those questions impacts CTR, increasing complexity, decreasing confidence in CTR models.

53

@wilreynolds

Predicting CTR w/ any degree of confidence is impossiblemaking predicting impact reckless

@wilreynolds

I can give you a number,I’ll have 5%-30% confidence in it90% of the time

55

@wilreynolds

Have you ever been @ a store and did a search to compare price? Then go to another store? Or Buy online?

@wilreynolds

Online Leads to Offline

@wilreynolds

Build content high in the funnel

Probably get more conversions

58

@wilreynolds

If we can get content on getting a checking account at 16, then we have a higher chance to rank when that 16 year old does a search for “checking account”.

@wilreynolds

@wilreynolds

“If we can be there at every step of the customer journey, they’ll know our brand, we’ll get higher CTR, and we’ll rank higher…”

@wilreynolds

I propose we look to get better…EVERY month, than we were last month (rankings, traffic, conv.)Theory + Implement + AnalyzeTweak, Improve, Measure, Win.