1 vincent t. covello, ph.d. director center for risk communication 29 washington square west, suite...

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Vincent T. Covello, Ph.D.

Director

Center for Risk Communication

29 Washington Square West, Suite 2A

New York, New York 10011

Tel.: 646-654-1679; Fax.: 212-749-3590

email: vincentcovello@ix.netcom.com

web site: www.centerforriskcommunication.org

copyright 2002

Vincent T. Covello, Ph.D.

Director

Center for Risk Communication

29 Washington Square West, Suite 2A

New York, New York 10011

Tel.: 646-654-1679; Fax.: 212-749-3590

email: vincentcovello@ix.netcom.com

web site: www.centerforriskcommunication.org

copyright 2002

Risk and Crisis Communication Risk and Crisis Communication

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“A Science-basedScience-based Approach for Communicating Effectively in:

High-Concern, High Stress

Emotionally Charged, or

Controversial Situations”

“A Science-basedScience-based Approach for Communicating Effectively in:

High-Concern, High Stress

Emotionally Charged, or

Controversial Situations”

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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““...the major public health challenges ...the major public health challenges since 9/11 were not just clinical, since 9/11 were not just clinical, epidemiological, technical, issues. epidemiological, technical, issues. The major challenges were The major challenges were communication. In fact, as we move communication. In fact, as we move into the 21st century, communication into the 21st century, communication may well become the central science may well become the central science of public health practice.” (December, of public health practice.” (December, 2001)2001)

-Edward Baker, MD, MPH, Assistant -Edward Baker, MD, MPH, Assistant US Surgeon GeneralUS Surgeon General

““...the major public health challenges ...the major public health challenges since 9/11 were not just clinical, since 9/11 were not just clinical, epidemiological, technical, issues. epidemiological, technical, issues. The major challenges were The major challenges were communication. In fact, as we move communication. In fact, as we move into the 21st century, communication into the 21st century, communication may well become the central science may well become the central science of public health practice.” (December, of public health practice.” (December, 2001)2001)

-Edward Baker, MD, MPH, Assistant -Edward Baker, MD, MPH, Assistant US Surgeon GeneralUS Surgeon General

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“Situations” where risk communications can prove invaluable:

Controversial industrial development

Contract negotiations

Crisis and emergency management

Losses in corporate confidence

Part of everyday life

Change.

“Situations” where risk communications can prove invaluable:

Controversial industrial development

Contract negotiations

Crisis and emergency management

Losses in corporate confidence

Part of everyday life

Change.

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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Risk Communication

Part of everyday life:

at work

at home

in the community

Risk Communication

Part of everyday life:

at work

at home

in the community

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“ ...in high concern…” “ ...in high concern…”

High ConcernHigh ConcernLow TrustLow Trust(essential)

High ConcernHigh ConcernHigh TrustHigh Trust(essential)

Low ConcernLow Trust

(recommended)

Low ConcernHigh Trust(optional)

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Definition of Risk:

“The probability of loss of that which we value.”

Definition of Risk:

“The probability of loss of that which we value.”

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• Anticipate questions and concerns by listening

• Prepare accurate, well crafted, relevant, ethical, consistent , under- standable messages

• Practice delivery

• Anticipate questions and concerns by listening

• Prepare accurate, well crafted, relevant, ethical, consistent , under- standable messages

• Practice delivery

First StepsFirst Steps

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Risk and Crisis Communication Research:

Example: Sound bites

Risk and Crisis Communication Research:

Example: Sound bites

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Sound bite research:

Assumption: national news, controversial topic

• 7 to 9 seconds (21-27 words, 30 words max.)

• 3 messages

• 9 second knowledge/trust window

Sound bite research:

Assumption: national news, controversial topic

• 7 to 9 seconds (21-27 words, 30 words max.)

• 3 messages

• 9 second knowledge/trust window

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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• Limited message duration

• Limited message content

• Enhanced knowledge/trust

• Limited message duration

• Limited message content

• Enhanced knowledge/trust

Risk and Crisis Communication:

Overarching Key Messages

Risk and Crisis Communication:

Overarching Key Messages

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Key Word Message Map 1Message Map

Stakeholder:Question/Concern

Key Message/Fact 1.

Key Message/Fact 2.

Key Message/Fact 3.

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.3

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“Ethical Communication”

Versus

“Spin”

“Ethical Communication”

Versus

“Spin”

Overarching Risk and Crisis Communication Challenge

Overarching Risk and Crisis Communication Challenge

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Spin:

“…making things appear to be that which they are not.”

Spin:

“…making things appear to be that which they are not.”

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“Ethical Communication”

Question: What are the characteristics of ethical

risk and crisis communication?

“Ethical Communication”

Question: What are the characteristics of ethical

risk and crisis communication?

ChallengeChallenge

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Three Primary Goals

Knowledge and Understanding

Trust and Credibility

Dialogue to Resolve Disagreements

Three Primary Goals

Knowledge and Understanding

Trust and Credibility

Dialogue to Resolve Disagreements

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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Overarching Goal:

To Avoid Regret

Overarching Goal:

To Avoid Regret

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“There is virtually no correlation between the ranking of a threat or hazard by experts and the ranking of those same hazards by the public”

“There is virtually no correlation between the ranking of a threat or hazard by experts and the ranking of those same hazards by the public”

Challenge 1: Perceptions Challenge 1: Perceptions

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Perception = Reality

That which is perceived as real is real.

That which is perceived as real is real in its consequences

Perception = Reality

That which is perceived as real is real.

That which is perceived as real is real in its consequences

Risk CommunicationRisk Communication

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PERCEPTIONS OF RISK(Outrage Factors)

Lower Perceived Risk Higher Perceived Risk1. Trustworthy sources Untrustworthy sources

2. Substantial benefits Few benefits

3. Voluntary Involuntary

4. Controllable Not controllable

5. Fair/equitable Unfair/inequitable

6. Natural origin Human origin (man made)

7. Familiar Unfamiliar/exotic

8. Not dreaded Dreaded

9. Certain Uncertain

10. Children not asvictims

Children as victims

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PERCEPTION OF RISK (Outrage) (cont…)

Lower Perceived Risk Higher Perceived Risk11. Not memorable Memorable

12. Moral/ethical Immoral/unethical

13. Clear non-verbal message

Mixed non-verbalmessage

14. Responsive Unresponsive

15. Random/scattered Catastrophic

16. Little media attention Much media attention

17. Victims statistical Victims identifiable

18. Immediate effects Delayed effects

19. Effect reversible Effect irreversible

20. Scientifically well understood

Non scientifically wellunderstood

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Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Benefits …………….…….……. 1000

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Benefits …………….…….……. 1000

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Challenge 2: Perceptions of Trust & Distrust

In High Concern Situations, People Want to Know That You

Care Before They Care What You Know

Challenge 2: Perceptions of Trust & Distrust

In High Concern Situations, People Want to Know That You

Care Before They Care What You Know Assessed in first 9-30 seconds

Assessed in first 9-30 seconds

Listening/Caring/Empathy

50%

Listening/Caring/Empathy

50%

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1 N = 3 P

One negative equals three positives

1 N = 3 P

One negative equals three positives

Challenge 3:

Negative Dominance

Challenge 3:

Negative Dominance

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• No

• Not

• Never

• Nothing

• None

• No

• Not

• Never

• Nothing

• None

Challenge 3:

Negative Dominance

Challenge 3:

Negative Dominance

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Sound Bite Construction Exercise Sound Bite Construction Exercise

Risk CommunicationRisk Communication

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• Why are you the best candidate?

• What are your greatest weaknesses?

• Where do you see yourself in five years?

• Why are you the best candidate?

• What are your greatest weaknesses?

• Where do you see yourself in five years?

At Work: Job Interview QuestionsAt Work: Job Interview Questions

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• What are your communication

objectives?

– Knowledge?

– Trust?

– Dialogue?

• What are your communication

objectives?

– Knowledge?

– Trust?

– Dialogue?

First StepsFirst Steps

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• Who is your audience?

• Who is your audience?First StepsFirst Steps

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Stakeholders - Examples• Family and Friends• Employees • Employee families• Supervisors• Co-workers• Unions • Advisory Panels • Local Government • State Government • Federal Government • Other Government Agencies• Politicians• Individuals in the Community

• Activist Groups• Educators• Religious Leaders• Shareholders/Investors• Senior Management• Physicians and Other Health

Professionals• Emergency Responders• Legal Practitioners• Local Business Community• Contractors/Consultants • Media • Ethic/minority groups• Sensitive individuals or

groups

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• What are there concerns?

• What are there concerns?

First StepsFirst Steps

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• Safety

• Security

• Economic

• Health

• Quality of Life

• etc.

• Safety

• Security

• Economic

• Health

• Quality of Life

• etc.

Values at Risk Values at Risk

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• Message Development

• Message Development First StepsFirst Steps

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• What are the three most important things you would like your audience to know

• What are the three most important things your audience would like to know

• What are the three most important things your audience is most likely to get wrong unless they are emphasized

• What are the three most important things you would like your audience to know

• What are the three most important things your audience would like to know

• What are the three most important things your audience is most likely to get wrong unless they are emphasized

First StepsFirst Steps

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Examples

Examples

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Key Word Message Map 1Message Map

Stakeholder:Question/Concern

Key Message/Fact 1.

Key Message/Fact 2.

Key Message/Fact 3.

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.3

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Smallpox Questions

Smallpox Questions

• How contagious is

smallpox?

• Is there enough vaccine?

• What are the signs and

symptoms of smallpox?

• How contagious is

smallpox?

• Is there enough vaccine?

• What are the signs and

symptoms of smallpox?

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Question: How contagious is smallpox?

Question: How contagious is smallpox?

Key Message 1: Spreads slowly

Key Message 2: Time to contact

Key Message 3: Vaccination

Key Message 1: Spreads slowly

Key Message 2: Time to contact

Key Message 3: Vaccination

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Smallpox Questions: CDC Message Mapping Project

Smallpox Questions: CDC Message Mapping Project

Over 60 draft maps

prepared

Sources for questions

Focus group testing

Over 60 draft maps

prepared

Sources for questions

Focus group testing

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Key Word Message Map 1

Message MapQuestion: How

contagious is smallpox

Key Message/Fact 1.

Keywords: Spreads Slowly

Key Message/Fact 2.

Keywords: Time to Contact

Key Message/Fact 3.

Keywords: Vaccination Within Days

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.3

......

... ...

...

...

…..

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Message Mapping Message Mapping

Follow-up QuestionsFollow-up Questions

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Key Word Message Map 3

Stakeholder: Construction WorkersQuestion/Concern/Issue:

Worker Exposure to silica dust

Key Message/Fact 1.

Keywords: Personal protection

Key Message/Fact 2.

Keywords: Health screening / monitoring

Key Message/Fact 3.

Keywords: Engineering / administrative controls

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 1.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 2.3

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.1

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.2

Keywords:Supporting

Fact 3.3

Environment / equipment

Baseline physical exams

Education / awareness program

Hazard communication

Periodic screening / surveillance

Workplace air monitoring

Dust source reduction

Dust suppression

Limited exposure times

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Origins of the Field

Origins of the Field

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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Origins of the Field

• Deep Historical Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Origins of the Field

• Deep Historical Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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Origins of the Field

• Deep Historical Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Origins of the Field

• Deep Historical Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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Origins of the Field

• Deep Roots

– Mental Noise TheoryMental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

•

Origins of the Field

• Deep Roots

– Mental Noise TheoryMental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination Theory

•

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication

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When people are stressed or When people are stressed or upset, they have difficulty :upset, they have difficulty :

• hearing informationhearing information

• understanding informationunderstanding information

• remembering informationremembering information

When people are stressed or When people are stressed or upset, they have difficulty :upset, they have difficulty :

• hearing informationhearing information

• understanding informationunderstanding information

• remembering informationremembering information

Mental Noise TheoryMental Noise Theory

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• Limited time (e.g., attention Limited time (e.g., attention span)span)

• Limited content (e.g., 3 Limited content (e.g., 3 messages)messages)

• Clear (e.g., 6th grade)Clear (e.g., 6th grade)

• Limited time (e.g., attention Limited time (e.g., attention span)span)

• Limited content (e.g., 3 Limited content (e.g., 3 messages)messages)

• Clear (e.g., 6th grade)Clear (e.g., 6th grade)

Mental Noise Theory: Verbal Messages Implications -- CoreMental Noise Theory: Verbal

Messages Implications -- Core

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• Repetition (e.g., internal Repetition (e.g., internal and external) and external)

• Prioritized (e.g., first and Prioritized (e.g., first and last) last)

• Visuals (graphics, demos)Visuals (graphics, demos)

• 1N = 3P1N = 3P

• Repetition (e.g., internal Repetition (e.g., internal and external) and external)

• Prioritized (e.g., first and Prioritized (e.g., first and last) last)

• Visuals (graphics, demos)Visuals (graphics, demos)

• 1N = 3P1N = 3P

Mental Noise Theory: Verbal Message Implications -- Add-Ons

Mental Noise Theory: Verbal Message Implications -- Add-Ons

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• Listening, Caring, Empathy StatementListening, Caring, Empathy Statement

• State Three Key MessagesState Three Key Messages

• Re-State First Key Message Plus Re-State First Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Second Key Message Plus Re-State Second Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Third Key Message Plus Re-State Third Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Three Key MessagesRe-State Three Key Messages

• Indicate Future ActionsIndicate Future Actions

• Listening, Caring, Empathy StatementListening, Caring, Empathy Statement

• State Three Key MessagesState Three Key Messages

• Re-State First Key Message Plus Re-State First Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Second Key Message Plus Re-State Second Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Third Key Message Plus Re-State Third Key Message Plus Supporting Information Supporting Information

• Re-State Three Key MessagesRe-State Three Key Messages

• Indicate Future ActionsIndicate Future Actions

Seven Part ModelSeven Part Model

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Mental Noise Theory:

Non-Verbal Messages

Mental Noise Theory:

Non-Verbal Messages

Provides up to 50-75% of

message content

Noticed intensely and negatively interpreted

Overrides verbal communication

Provides up to 50-75% of message content

Noticed intensely and negatively interpreted

Overrides verbal communication

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Origins of the Field

• Deep Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination TheoryTrust Determination Theory

•

Origins of the Field

• Deep Roots

– Mental Noise Theory

– Trust Determination TheoryTrust Determination Theory

•

Risk and CommunicationRisk and Communication

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When people are stressed or When people are stressed or upset, they often distrust that upset, they often distrust that others are: others are:

• listening, caring, empathy listening, caring, empathy

• honest, openhonest, open

• competent, expert competent, expert

When people are stressed or When people are stressed or upset, they often distrust that upset, they often distrust that others are: others are:

• listening, caring, empathy listening, caring, empathy

• honest, openhonest, open

• competent, expert competent, expert

Trust DeterminationTheoryTrust DeterminationTheory

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MirroringMirroringMirroringMirroring

Trust DeterminationTheoryTrust DeterminationTheory

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Question: Genetically Modified Food and Allergies

Question: Genetically Modified Food and Allergies

Key Message 1:Tested

Key Message 2:Conventional

Foods

Key Message 3:Identify Gene

Key Message 1:Tested

Key Message 2:Conventional

Foods

Key Message 3:Identify Gene

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Origins of the Field

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Origins of the Field

• More Recent Roots

– Risk Perception Theory

Risk and CommunicationRisk and Communication

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PERCEPTIONS OF RISK(Outrage Factors)

Lower Perceived Risk Higher Perceived Risk1. Trustworthy sources Untrustworthy sources

2. Substantial benefits Few benefits

3. Voluntary Involuntary

4. Controllable Not controllable

5. Fair/equitable Unfair/inequitable

6. Natural origin Human origin (man made)

7. Familiar Unfamiliar/exotic

8. Not dreaded Dreaded

9. Certain Uncertain

10. Children not asvictims

Children as victims

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PERCEPTION OF RISK (Outrage) (cont…)

Lower Perceived Risk Higher Perceived Risk11. Not memorable Memorable

12. Moral/ethical Immoral/unethical

13. Clear non-verbal message

Mixed non-verbalmessage

14. Responsive Unresponsive

15. Random/scattered Catastrophic

16. Little media attention Much media attention

17. Victims statistical Victims identifiable

18. Immediate effects Delayed effects

19. Effect reversible Effect irreversible

20. Scientifically well understood

Non scientifically wellunderstood

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Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Fairness …………….…….……. 500

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Fairness …………….…….……. 500

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Trust Determination Factors In High Concern Situations Trust Determination Factors

In High Concern Situations

Assessed in first 30 seconds

Assessed in first 30 secondsListening/Caring/

Empathy50%

Listening/Caring/Empathy

50%Competence/

Expertise 15-20%

Competence/Expertise 15-20%

Honesty/ Openness 15-20%

Honesty/ Openness 15-20%

Dedication/Commitment

15-20%

Dedication/Commitment

15-20%

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Developing Trust• The higher the level of emotion or distrust, the

greater the need for:– words/statements– gestures– actions

that communicate– listening – caring – empathy

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Trust / Credibility Credibility Transference

Trust / Credibility Credibility Transference

“A lower credibility source takes on

the credibility of the highest credible

source that agrees with its position on

an issue.”

“A lower credibility source takes on

the credibility of the highest credible

source that agrees with its position on

an issue.”

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Trust / Credibility Credibility Reversal

Trust / Credibility Credibility Reversal

“When a lower credibility source

attacks the credibility of a higher

credibility source, the lower credibility

source loses further credibility.”

“When a lower credibility source

attacks the credibility of a higher

credibility source, the lower credibility

source loses further credibility.”

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Trust / Credibility Credibility Reversal (con’t)

Trust / Credibility Credibility Reversal (con’t)

“The only information source that can

effectively attack the credibility of

another source is one of equal or

higher credibility.”

“The only information source that can

effectively attack the credibility of

another source is one of equal or

higher credibility.”

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Environmenal Trust Ladder• High

– Health Professionals (e.g., Nurses, Physicians)

– Safety Professionals (e.g., Fire, Police)

– University Scientists

• Medium– Environmental Professionals

– Media

– Activist Groups

• Low– Industry

– Federal Government

– Paid External Consultants

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Stakeholders - Examples• Family and Friends• Employees • Employee families• Supervisors• Co-workers• Unions • Advisory Panels • Local Government • State Government • Federal Government • Other Government Agencies• Politicians• Individuals in the Community

• Activist Groups• Educators• Religious Leaders• Shareholders/Investors• Senior Management• Physicians and Other Health

Professionals• Emergency Responders• Legal Practitioners• Local Business Community• Contractors/Consultants • Media • Ethic/minority groups• Sensitive individuals or

groups

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Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Risk Perception (Outrage) Factors

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Fairness …………….…….……. 500

Amplification Weights

Factor Weight

Trust………………………..….. 2000

Control……………………..….. 1000Control……………………..….. 1000

Fairness …………….…….……. 500

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Control Factors

Control Factors

Choice

Voice

Knowledge

Choice

Voice

Knowledge

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Three Primary Goals

Knowledge and Understanding

Trust and Credibility

Dialogue to Resolve Disagreements

Three Primary Goals

Knowledge and Understanding

Trust and Credibility

Dialogue to Resolve Disagreements

Risk and Crisis CommunicationRisk and Crisis Communication