1 position of the nds “moldova 2020” in the national strategic planning system mr. ruslan...
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1
Position of the NDS “Moldova 2020”
in the national strategic planning system
Mr. Ruslan Codreanu – director of Policy, Strategic Planning and Foreign Aid Department
Chişinău, 2012
The State Chancellery
The Goal
Economic growth for sustainable development Development aid: will not stay forever Growth matters: fiscal space for social policies Consumption led growth: not sustainable
Remittances may dry out as migrants establish homes abroad
Not fast enough to ensure convergence
Learning tips from EGPRSP & NDS: less is more
Longer term vision is key
Development Priorities
How we came about setting priorities: Growth diagnostics:
find the bottlenecks Fix problems and not
sectors Seek externalities Generate impact
7 national priorities
Education
Better Roads
Access to finance
Business climate
Energy efficiency
Pension reform
Rule of law
Participatory solutions
•Design process•Set goal•Validate priorities
SPC
•Establish baseline•Define targets for 2020•Define milestones for 2015
•Elaborate vision
Working groups •Online consultations
•Roundtable discussions•Public debates•Feedback
Public consultations
•Government approval•Parliamentary approval
Approval
July August December March 2012
Development partners’ contribution
67 proposals from Joint Donor Group and WB;
Important issues were mainstreamed through the “Moldova 2020”, as for example: Migration, Gender, Health, Environment, etc.
Important EC proposals regarding reintegration of the country and correlation to the Association Agenda were included in the draft.
One section on links with other national strategies and policies was added.
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EXPECTED IMPACTEDUCATION
1) Migration of young graduates will be reduced by 50%,
2) Graduates will be at an aggregate level by 20% more productive.
Under such circumstances, the annual growth rate of GDP over the medium term may be 0.6-0.9% higher compared to the scenario "without reforms".
7
EXPECTED IMPACTBETTER ROADS
MDL 2.5 billion is wasted annually on extra repairs and fuel on road segments planned for rehabilitation.
Therefore, saved money can be invested for productive purposes and thus can increase the stock of fixed capital.
Annual GDP growth will be additionally increased by 0.3% due to fuel savings and repairs only. But the overall likely effect will be even greater.
8
EXPECTED IMPACTACCESS TO FINANCE
1) Up to 50% increase in financing volumes through the banking and non-banking sectors as a percentage of GDP.
Additional investment will be reflected in an annual GDP growth of up to 0.5-0.7% higher compared to the scenario without the implementation of this priority.
9
EXPECTED IMPACTBUSINESS CLIMATE
1) Regulatory constraints and unjustified costs will be eliminated,
2) Enhanced investor confidence in the business environment in Republic of Moldova.
Increased trade volumes, including exports as a share of GDP, which have an positive impact on economic development and poverty reduction.
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EXPECTED IMPACTENERGY EFFICIENCY
1) Strengthened energy security;
2) The intermediate production in the energy and transport sectors only amounts to over MDL 17 billion;
3) The energy efficiency increase by up to 10%. Annual savings by 2020 will account for approximately MDL 830 million in current prices.
GDP growth rate over medium and long term will be higher by at least 0.2% compared to the base case scenario, only on account of savings achieved.
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EXPECTED IMPACTPENSION REFORM
1) A sustainable pension system will have positive repercussions on the national economy, reducing the extent of salaries paid under the table, shadow economy, etc.
The share of pensioners below the absolute poverty line will decrease by 2 p.p. over the scenario ”without reforms” by 2020.
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EXPECTED IMPACTJUSTICE
1) The estimates of the volume of bribes paid in 2011 from the enterprises’ revenues are about MDL 390 million.
2) The lower level of corruption would result in investing a part of this money for productive purposes, thus generating an annual GDP growth by at least 0.1% annually.
Moldova’s attractiveness will increase foreign investments and associated new technologies, thus inducing important collateral effects.
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OVERALL EXPECTED IMPACTGDP GROWTH, MDL MILLION AT 2000 PRICES
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Scenariu de Bază
Moldova 2020
Base case sce-nario
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OVERALL EXPECTED IMPACTREDUCTION OF THE POVERTY RATE, %
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Scenariu de Bază
Moldova 2020
Base case scenario
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“Moldova 2020” operationalization process
PrioritiesPriorities
Objectives & indicators
Objectives & indicators
Measures*Measures*
Time bound actions
Time bound actions
ProgramsPrograms
IndicatorsIndicators
MOLDOVA 2020
CONSOLIDATED ACTION PLAN
MTBF / LAW ON STATE BUDGET
* Measures = groups of related actions
Planning and prioritization Implementation, monitoring & reporting
Consolidated Action Plan
(Implementation)
Technical Assistance
(Implementation)
Annual Budget Programs
(Implementation)
Consolidated Action Plan
Measures & Actions
MTBF
Resourcing
Quarterly & annual reporting against actions
Annual reporting against indicators
Mo
ldo
va 2
020
pri
ori
ties
Mid
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val
ua
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ep
ort
”Moldova 2020”, Integrated planning, monitoring and reporting cycle
Follow-up Actions
Monitoring and evaluation Yearly monitoring 2015: interim evaluation 2020: final evaluation
Integrate into the strategic planning Influence the Strategic Development Programs Update the Government Action Plan Inform the Medium Term Expenditure Framework
Maintain awareness
The national strategic planning system
Government’s Program of activities
SDP
Consolidated actions plan
Annual budget
NDS “Moldova 2020”
Sectoral/ cross sectoral strategies
Annual authority action plan
MTBF
MTEF COVERAGE
Education
1st stage, MTEF 2003-2005Health care
Social Protection
Agriculture 2nd stage, MTEF 2007-2009
Culture
3rd stage, MTEF 2008-2010Tourism
Defence
Justice
4th stage, MTEF 2009-2011
Science
Environment protection
Road and transportation
Correctional institutions
Sport and youth
Energy6th stage, MTBF 2013-2015
Quality Infrastructure
Construction
6th stage (piloting), MTBF 2013-2015Informational technologies and communication
Public order and civil protection
MTEF process
• MF elaborates the instructions for the MTBF
• SC establishes the priorities for the next MBTF
MF, CS
• Working groups analyze the main budgetary aspects
• elaborate SES, • Set the expenditure
cap for resources for each sector
Working groups
• MF prepareres the final draft and sends it to the SC
MF
• Government approval
• Presented to the Parliament
Government
December January February March April May
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