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CONCLUSIONS FROM THE REPORT

“BENCHMARKS FOR A MORE AMBITIOUS

EU 2030 RENEWABLES TARGET”

COMMISSIONED BY EREF

AMBITION OF RENEWABLE

ENERGY TARGETS FOR THE

EU IN 2030

CORINNA KLESSMANN

17 OCTOBER 2017

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AIM OF THE REPORT: INFORM DEBATE ABOUT

EUROPEAN RES TARGETS FOR 2030

Two main points of criticism have been raised regarding the proposed EU

2030 energy efficiency and renewable energy target (30% EE / 27% RES):

1. Targets are considered too low to achieve EU long-term targets, i.e. cutting GHG

emissions by 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. EP rapporteurs propose higher

targets (governance: 40%EE / 45 %RES; RED: 35% RES)

2. Governance of EU-level RES target: EU-level target achievement depends on

Member State actions. National targets would make the EU target more reliable.

Pledge approach requires benchmarks to assess whether contributions are adequate.


AIM OF THE REPORT: INFORM DEBATE ABOUT

EUROPEAN RES-TARGETS FOR 2030

Approach

1. Show the effect of higher levels of energy efficiency on the effort to

meet the EU renewables target

2. Compare the effort of reaching an EU 2030 RES target of 27%- 45% to

the effort of the past decade (net RES increase 2020-2030 compared to

2010-2020)

3. Derive national benchmarks for 2030-target sharing, based on 2020

logic and alternative approach

Source: Green-X based on PRIMES scenarios (EC Impact Assessment)

Not included:

• gross RES increase (incl. repowering)

• Cost of RES deployment (much lower than in the past)


HIGHER ENERGY EFFICIENCY FACILITATES MORE

AMBITIOUS RENEWABLES TARGETS

Energy efficiency has a direct impact on

the RES deployment levels required to

achieve the RES targets:

• Aggregated RES deployment needs for all

RES targets would be reduced by nearly 15%

if the EU energy efficiency target is raised from

30% to 40%.

• A 40% energy efficiency target combined with

a 27% RES target in 2030 would not require

any net increase in renewables.

• To incentivize a net increase in RES

deployment, the 2030 RES target would need

to be increased above 27%.

Diagram: Required 2030 RES deployment levels per RES

target for different levels of energy efficiency ambition

279

309

361

464

259

287

335

431

239

265

309

398

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

27%

RES

by

2030

30%

RES

by

2030

35%

RES

by

2030

45%

RES

by

2030

RES

dep

loym

ent

[Mto

e]

30% Energy Efficiency



Status Quo (2015)

2020 RES target

Required 2030 RES deployment - impact of Energy Efficiency:


HIGHER ENERGY EFFICIENCY FACILITATES MORE

AMBITIOUS RENEWABLES TARGETS

Required net-increase in RES

deployment in 2020-2030 compared to

2010-2020:

• Currently proposed 2030-targets of 30% for

EE and 27% for RES could drastically slow

down current levels of renewables expansion

in the EU-28.

• To maintain current levels of RES growth, the

2030 RES-target must be at least 30%.

• In the case of a 30% RES target, net increase

in RES deployment in the EU-28 would be

reduced from 75 to 30 Mtoe (nearly 60%) if EE

target is raised from 30% to 40%.

Diagram: Required net additional RES deployment from

2020 to 2030 per RES target for different levels of energy

efficiency ambition

44

75

126

229

24

53

100

196

4

30

75

163

0

50

100

150

200

250

27%

RES

by

2030

30%

RES

by

2030

35%

RES

by

2030

45%

RES

by

2030

Net

incr

ease

in R

ES d

eplo

ymen

t [M

toe]




Increase 2010-2020

Required increase in RES deployment 2020-2030- impact of Energy Efficiency:


DEFINING RENEWABLES BENCHMARKS FOR EFFORT

SHARING AMONG MEMBER STATES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

RES

sh

are

in g

ross

fin

al e

ner

gy d

eman

d [

%]

27% RES by 2030 30% RES by 2030 35% RES by 2030 45% RES by 2030 Status Quo (2015) 2020 RES target

2030 RES benchmarks according to 2020 logic (Flat rate + GDP):


KEY FINDINGS

1. Higher energy efficiency facilitates more ambitious renewables targets: An

increase in the EU EE target from 30% to 40% would reduce the aggregated net

RES deployment needed to achieve any RES target by nearly 15%.

2. The currently proposed 2030 target of 27% for renewables could drastically slow

down current levels of renewables expansion in the EU-28.

3. Even a RES target of 30% would result in a lower overall net deployment

increase of renewables in 2020-2030 compared to 2010-2020, both under a 40%

and a 30% energy efficiency scenario.

4. Assuming a 40% EE target, a RES target of at least 35% would need to be set to

maintain current net deployment increase of RES in the EU-28.

5. A 45% RES target would imply a very strong increase in net renewables

deployment compared to 2010-2020.

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Chicago, Illinois

San Francisco,

California

Washington, DC

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London,

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GENERAL [email protected]

WWW.ECOFYS.COM


BACK-UP SLIDES


METHODOLOGY AND DATA BASIS

Starting point for our calculations of national targets:

• Method used for the allocation of the 2020 RES targets (“2020-logic”)

• Assumption that national 2020 RES targets are met in time by Member States

Ensuring consistency with existing EU works:

• Key data source was recent PRIMES modelling done on behalf of the EC (Impact

Assessment of the RED II)

• Scenarios used:

- PRIMES reference scenario to calculate MS-specific 2030 RES targets (in %)

- „PRIMES euco30“ (builds on targeted use of energy efficiency (30%)): to translate RES

shares (%) into absolute values

- For more ambitious energy efficiency targets, a relative increase of energy efficiency across

all MS was assumed




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Net

incr

ease

in R

ES d

eplo

ymen

t [M

toe

]

27% RES 30% RES 35% RES 45% RES Increase 2010-2020

Net increase in RES deployment 2020-2030 with benchmarks according to 2020 logic 30% Energy

Efficiencyby 2030




-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Net

incr

ease

in R

ES d

eplo

ymen

t [M

toe

]

27% RES 30% RES 35% RES 45% RES Increase 2010-2020

Net increase in RES deployment 2020-2030 with benchmarks according to 2020 logic 40% Energy

Efficiencyby 2030

31.40


COMPARISON OF TARGET SHARING METHODOLOGIES

So far, no formula for the calculation of RES benchmarks has been provided.

Article 5 of the Draft Governance Regulation mentions several criteria for MS pledges:

- equitable distribution of deployment across the European Union;

- economic potential;

- geographical and natural constraints, including those of non-interconnected areas and

regions; and

- the level of power interconnection between Member States.

RED II Impact Assessment: benchmarking approach alternative to the „2020-logic“

(flat+GDP): land area per capita, implicitly reflecting RES potential


COMPARISON OF TARGET SHARING METHODOLOGIES3

0.0

0%

43

.76

5%

22

.46

6%

22

.97

8%

28

.32

7%

22

.84

3%

20

.88

1%

42

.21

4%

32

.64

0%

46

.38

3%

33

.63

9%

28

.57

9%

27

.98

0%

20

.93

0% 2

7.6

52

%

27

.09

6%

49

.58

1%

31

.33

3%

20

.40

3%

21

.20

9%

24

.52

2%

22

.74

3%

40

.44

4%

31

.67

6%

22

.03

7%

33

.31

3%

30

.48

9%

59

.08

0%

26

.34

1%

30

.00

%

43

.34

4%

20

.94

6% 2

8.4

40

%

32

.08

2%

24

.25

4%

21

.42

1%

40

.49

8%

39

.54

3%

53

.16

5%

33

.13

4%

27

.03

3%

30

.48

9%

22

.95

1%

28

.02

3%

26

.15

5%

57

.12

0%

37

.68

4%

18

.75

3%

18

.69

4%

22

.50

7%

24

.08

8%

41

.69

5%

35

.95

6%

23

.10

1%

34

.23

1%

31

.46

6%

64

.46

2%

24

.51

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

EU2

8

Au

stri

a

Bel

giu

m

Bu

lgar

ia

Cro

atia

Cyp

rus

Czech…

Den

mar

k

Esto

nia

Fin

lan

d

Fran

ce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hu

nga

ry

Irel

and

Ital

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Luxembo…

Mal

ta

Netherlan…

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

gal

Ro

man

ia

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Spai

n

Swed

en

United

…

RES

sh

are

in g

ross

fin

al e

ner

gy d

eman

d [

%]

2020 logic (Flat rate + GDP) Alternative approach (incl. land area) Status Quo (2015) 2020 RES target2030 RES benchmarks:30% RES

by 2030

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