Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios until 2030 Key Results & Methodology

Leonardo Energy Webinar, 17 April 2014

Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser

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Key Research Question

How can heat pumps contribute to the long-term EU energy and climate targets?

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Agenda

Part I - Overview

> Objective & Key Messages

Part II - Details

> Methodology > Scenario Definitions > Results

> Individual Building Level > Scenarios

> Conclusion

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Part I

Overview

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Objective > Scope

> Study for

> Scenarios for 8 countries (AT, BE, FR, DE, IT, ES, SE, UK)

> Impact of increasing heat pump

implementations

> Scope of heating, hot water, cooling, auxiliary energy

> 3 scenarios

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Objective > Scenario Definition

> 3 scenarios > All with (very) high energy efficiency standard related to the

building shell > Differentiation of heating system mix

> Scenario “Current Policy Implementation - CPI” with moderate increasing HP share > Scenario “HP+” with high HP shares (30%4 for retrofits and 50%4 for new builds) > Scenario “HP++” with very high HP shares (50%4 for retrofits and 100%4 for new builds)

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Key Message I > GHG Emissions

Building sector target corridor*

Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario

2012-2030

* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”

Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries

Scenarios:

Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix.

without any heat pumps

CO2-eq emissions

from heat pump

F-gas leakages:

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Key Message II > Final Energy

The overall final energy for space heating, hot water, cooling and auxiliary purposes with increasing shares of heat pumps can be reduced by 2030 (compared to 2012): > by 19% in “CPI”,

> by 25% in “HP+” and

> by 31% in “HP++”.

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Key Message III > Costs

The total annual costs (annuities from investments and energy costs) increase by 2030 related to “CPI”.

> by 0.7% in the

scenario “HP+” and

> by 2.7% in the scenario “HP++”.

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RES-shares from heat pumps by 2020 can be higher than

required by the RES-Directive

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Key Message IV > RES shares

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Part II

Details

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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model

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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model

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1

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Calculation Steps BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser)

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Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model

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Schematic illustration of the scope for the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser, CEN/TR 15615)

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Scenario Definition > Number of buildings in key markets

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Number of buildings

Conditioned floor area per country and building type

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Scenario Definition > Reference buildings

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Residential Non-residential

Sweden, France, ItalyGermany, Spain, Belgium, Austria, UK All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions

Single-family house (detached)

Single-family house (Row-end house)

Multi-family house Office Education Trade / retail Touristic Health

Floor area [m²] 110,7 120,0 335,0 1972,0 11725,0 620,0 1050,0 22.422,2Ambient w all [m²] 152,0 130,0 270,0 1595,6 7597,0 510,6 1351,8 5184,3

North [m²] 40,0 0,0 15,0 576,0 1846,0 155,3 161,9 1501,8East [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 234,1 1950,0 100,0 513,0 1086,7South [m²] 40,0 70,0 15,0 597,6 1847,0 155,3 164,4 1444,4West [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 187,9 1954,0 100,0 512,5 1151,4

Window s 26,6 24,4 96,1 611,0 2825,8 46,8 207,2 845,4North [m²] 5,7 0,0 6,3 207,9 721,9 0,0 0,0 186,2East [m²] 5,8 3,9 26,0 181,5 787,0 46,2 105,6 144,9South [m²] 5,3 8,6 6,3 208,2 891,9 0,0 10,0 220,7West [m²] 9,7 9,2 57,5 13,4 425,0 0,6 91,6 293,7Roof w indow East [m²] 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0Roof w indow West [m²] 0,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Ground plate [m²] cellar existent Cellar existent 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,1 Cellar existentCellar ceiling [m²] 99,2 85,5 no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar 3.739,1Roof [m²] 77,0 52,3 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,0 3.739,1

East [m²] 38,5 26,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0West [m²] 38,5 25,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Story height [m²] 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 3,7 4,5 4,7 2.8 / 3.5 4,3Building volume [m³] 465 (w ithout cellar) 517 (w ithout cellar) 1480,0 7473,7 53941,9 3100,0 6879,0 88.864,2Ratio m² f loor to cellar or ground 1,1 1,4 1,8 3,3 1,0 1,9 6,0

Source: Klauß, Maas (2010)

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Scenario Definition > Retrofits, new buildings and demolitions

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Renovation, new construction and demolition rates

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Scenario Definition > Shares of heat pumps

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Scenario Definition > Definition of heat pump increase rates

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Leverage factors for heat pump implementation in the “CPI” scenario

Illustration of “Implementations gained from competing technologies” in the HP+ and HP++ scenarios

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Scenario Definition > Heat pump market saturations

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Market saturation curve (S-curve)

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Scenario Definition > Heat pump implementations

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Heat pump implementations per scenario

Relation of heat pump implementations per scenario in 2020 related to 2012

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Results > SPFs and CO2-emissions for individual buildings

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SPF values for heat pumps in single-family houses per country

Austria: CO2-emissions per year for heating (floor heating system)

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Results > GHG Emissions

Building sector target corridor*

Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario

2012-2030

* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”

Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries

Scenarios:

Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix.

without any heat pumps

CO2-eq emissions

from heat pump

F-gas leakages:

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Results > Overview

* Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”

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Overview on main results per scenario

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Conclusion

High implementation of heat pumps can:

contribute significantly to the mitigation of CO2-emissions, energy savings and to an increasing share of renewable energies

be realized at moderate additional overall costs be an important puzzle piece for reaching long term

targets (by 2050) play an essential role in the future supply mix. Additional policy actions for heat pumps are required in the HP+ and HP++ scenario.

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Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser T: +49 221 270 70 157 E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com

Ecofys Germany Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany www.ecofys.com

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Thank you!