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ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report 

Volume 19 – Issue 52 – 3rd January 2010 

    4

over the budget's hypothetical price of US$ 35 per barrel. Yet it is lower by US$ 25.7 per barrel (27.8%) than the average Kuwaiti oil price for the first 9 months of the last fiscal year (US$ 92.3 per barrel). It is also lower by US$ 12.9 per barrel (16.2%) than the average price for the entire last fiscal year 2008/2009 when it scored US$ 79.5 per barrel. As a reminder, July 2008 average price scored the highest record price at US$ 130.2 per barrel and the lowest price for the Kuwaiti oil after the global financial crisis which broke out in 9/2008 was US$ 37.7 per barrel which was recorded in December 2008.

According to the figures released by the monthly follow up report for the state's accounts for November 2009, until the end of last November, total actual oil revenues scored about KD 10.551 billion. Kuwait is also assumed to have achieved about KD 1.45 billion in November. As such, Kuwait's oil revenues in 9 months of the current fiscal year are supposed to have scored about KD 12 billion or perhaps more taking into account selling refined products. The figure is 73.3% higher than the value of oil revenues estimated for the entire current fiscal year budget in the amount of KD 6.924 billion.

Assuming oil production and prices would continue at their present levels for the remaining part of the current fiscal year, anticipated oil revenues for the entire current fiscal year are about KD 16.3 billion, KD 9.4 billion higher than the budget's estimated oil revenues. Adding about KD 1.15 billion in non-oil revenues, total assumed revenues for the entire current fiscal year would score about KD 17.45 billion. Compared with KD 12.116 billion as expenditures allocations, there would be a hypothetical budget surplus by KD 5.3 billion.

3. GCC Stock Markets Performance 2009

Several push and pull local, regional and global factors prevailed over the GCC stock markets. In their final resultant, they separated their performance and it has become difficult to go in the same path as is often the case. The outcome of their performance in 2009 came mixed between gains by 27.5% for their best one, i.e. the Saudi stock market, and (-19.8%) for their worst performance, i.e. Bahrain stock market. Performance of the remaining 5 markets fluctuated between the two as showed in (Table 1).

Table (1)

Performance of GCC Stock Markets 2009    GCC Stock Markets 

IndicesChange   15‐Oct‐09  Change  

31‐Dec‐2008 31‐Dec‐20091  Saudi Stock Exchange  4,803.0 6,121.8 27.5%   2  Muscat Securities Market  5,441.1 6,368.8 17.0%   3  AbuDhabi Securities Exchange  2,390.1 2,743.6 14.8% 3,239.7  35.5% 4  Dubai Financial Market  1,636.3 1,803.6 10.2% 2,350.9  43.7% 5  Doha Securities Market  6,886.1 6,959.2 1.1%   6  Kuwait Stock Exchange (Weighted Index) 406.7 385.8 ‐5.2%   7  Kuwait Stock Exchange (Price Index)  7,782.6 7,005.3 ‐10.0%   8  Bahrain Stock Exchange  1,804.1 1,458.2 ‐19.2%   

ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report 

Volume 19 – Issue 52 – 3rd January 2010 

    5

Some regional markets responded to the improvement in global economy performance, the growth of indexes of both main and emerging markets which was reflected on their economies as a result of the great improvement in the oil. The result was a major positive performance like the Saudi, Omani, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai’s markets. The improvement was not of course sustained especially after a major financial crisis. It witnessed sharp regressions with a positive result. Among these highly rising markets Dubai and Abu Dhabi’s markets until mid-October when they achieved growth rates by 43.7% and 35.5% respectively. However, they began losing some gains since then either in a normal correction and regression movement or due to leaking inconvenient information about “Dubai World”. Though the two markets achieved profits compared with the year beginning, “Dubai World’s” crisis disclosed on November 25, 2009 brought them back to medium gains. Losses of Dubai financial market since then were higher, which is logical.

While the other three markets stabilized between sharp drop and limited gains, behavior of the Bahraini and Kuwaiti markets is understood. But what is incomprehensible is the behavior of the Qatari market. Bahrain is a financial services center and the blow came from the financial sector in a region with reduced liquidity. Bahrain has also limited natural resources and improved oil prices will not offer sufficient compensation.

KSE suffered from two local relapses between “Al-Qussaibi and Saad” Groups and Dubai crisis, namely, repercussions of

“Zain’s” deal and the US government’s case against “Agility”. No market could endure 4 relapses in half a year during the weak or fragile confidence time.

The Qatari economic growth has been estimated at 11% in the third quarter of 2009 compared with the second quarter. It is projected to achieve high growth rate at 9% for the entire 2009. It is very important to notice all kinds of support, both direct and indirect, offered by the Qatari government. Besides two expansionist financial and monetary policies, the Qatari government contributed directly to banks’ capital, It purchased shares portfolios and real estate portfolios in those banks, values about QR 30–50 billion. Despite that, the Qatari stock market’s performance was poor, both in prices and liquidity. That case is worthy of in depth study because it is unique in the history of crises.

Table (2) documents Dubai crisis impact on GCC stock markets. It is obvious that the free drop of these markets did not last long even for Dubai market itself, the crisis cradle. After 5 weeks, it is clear that the markets entered into the fluctuation phase between positive and negative performance. Though we are keen not to conclude solid results due to inadequate time, the outcome until now is the continuity of 5 markets to be in the negative zone from the beginning of the crisis on 25th Nov. until the end of 2009. Even the two markets which made up for their losses -Bahrain and Kuwait- have nothing left to lose because they are the weakest in performance and the losers throughout the year.

ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report 

Volume 19 – Issue 52 – 3rd January 2010 

    6

Table (2) Performance of GCC Markets since Dubai Crisis

4. The Weekly Performance of Kuwait Stock Exchange

The performance of the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) for the last week was less active than the previous one with all major indices and the general index showing a decrease. AlShall Index (value weighted) closed at 439.6 points at the closing of last Thursday, showing a decrease of 2.1 points or about 0.5% compared to previous week’s closing. And, the index is down by 38.5 points or about 8.1% compared to its closing at year end 2008.

The following tables summarize last week’s performance of KSE

   GCC Stock Markets Indices  Change   Indices  Change   Indices  Change   Indices  Change   Indices  Change  

25‐Nov‐09  3‐Dec‐09 Comparing to 25/11/2009 

10‐Dec‐09 Comparing to 25/11/2009 

17‐Dec‐09 Comparing to 25/11/2009 

24‐Dec‐09 Comparing to 25/11/2009 

31‐Dec‐09 Comparing to 25/11/2009 

1  Saudi Stock Exchange  6,355.8  N/A*  *  6,025.5  ‐5.2%  6,153.9  ‐3.2%  6,243.9  ‐1.8%  6,121.8  ‐3.7% 2  Muscat Securities Market  6,393.7  N/A*  *  5,975.8  ‐6.5%  6,247.5  ‐2.3%  6,167.3  ‐3.5%  6,368.8  ‐0.4% 3  Dubai Financial Market  2,093.2  1,831.5  ‐12.5%  1,640.7  ‐21.6%  1,879.3  ‐10.2%  1,759.2  ‐16.0%  1,803.6  ‐13.8% 4  AbuDhabi Securities Exchange  2,910.2  2,573.0  ‐11.6%  2,502.5  ‐14.0%  2,774.3  ‐4.7%  2,699.1  ‐7.3%  2,743.6  ‐5.7% 5  Doha Securities Market  7,193.4  7,033.5  ‐2.2%  6,926.8  ‐3.7%  7,167.7  ‐0.4%  7,045.5  ‐2.1%  6,959.2  ‐3.3% 6  Kuwait Stock Exchange (Weighted Index)  387.0  371.8  ‐3.9%  377.8  ‐2.4%  397.3  2.7%  387.4  0.1%  385.8  ‐0.3% 7  Kuwait Stock Exchange (Price Index)  6,933.7  6,698.2  ‐3.4%  6,758.0  ‐2.5%  7,104.3  2.5%  7,055.7  1.8%  7,005.3  1.0% 8  Bahrain Stock Exchange  1,442.7  1,439.2  ‐0.2%  1,413.9  ‐2.0%  1,447.6  0.3%  1,447.6  0.3%  1,458.2  1.1% 

Description Week 52 Week 51 Dif

31/12/2009 24/12/2009 % Working days 5 4 Al Shall index (41 Companies) 439.6 441.7 -0.5% KSE index 7,005.3 7,055.7 -0.7% Value Trade (KD) 241,921,230 233,509,070 Daily average (KD) 48,384,246 58,377,268 -17.1% Volume Trade (Shares) 1,480,775,000 1,711,697,500 Daily average (Shares) 1,257,803,000 427,924,375 -30.8% Transactions 98,974 27,948 Daily average 4,850 6,987 -30.6%

Most Active Sectors & Companies % of Total Value Traded Description

Market KD Sectors 41.0% 99,231,610 SERVICES SECTOR 21.5% 52,049,180 INVESTMENT SECTOR 13.4% 32,399,130 REAL ESTATE SECTOR

% of Total Value Traded Description Market KD Companies 11.3% 27,233,700 THE PUBLIC WAREHOUSING 10.9% 26,329,650 SOOR FUEL MARKETING CO. 7.7% 18,570,760 AL-DEERA HOLDING CO. 7.4% 17,860,050 ZAIN 5.2% 12,556,350 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT

42.4% 102,550,510 Total

ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report 

Volume 19 – Issue 52 – 3rd January 2010 

 

7

Week 51 Week 52 Description 24/12/2009 31/12/2009

6 13 Increased Value (# of Companies) 21 21 Decreased Value (# of Companies) 14 7 Unchanged Value (# of Companies) 41 41 Total Companies

Company Name THU THU DIFF CLOSE DIFF

31/12/2009 24/12/2009 % 2008 % 1 THE NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT 345.3 339.2 1.8 330.7 4.4 2 THE GULF BANK 200.6 197.2 1.7 635.1 (68.4)3 COMMERCIAL BANK OF KUWAIT 674.2 703.2 (4.1) 855.4 (21.2)4 AL-AHLI BANK OF KUWAIT 303.0 303.0 0.0 405.2 (25.2)5 KUWAIT INTERNATIONAL BANK 189.7 193.8 (2.1) 212.2 (10.6)6 BANK OF KUWAIT & THE MIDDLE EAST 278.2 272.7 2.0 257.9 7.9 7 BURGAN BANK 249.1 256.4 (2.8) 466.2 (46.6)8 KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE 1,183.8 1,269.9 (6.8) 1,306.8 (9.4) BANKING SECTOR 391.4 396.4 (1.3) 470.0 (16.7)

9 COMMERCIAL FACILITIES CO 241.8 227.4 6.3 270.7 (10.7)10 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISORS 737.6 802.4 (8.1) 1,021.3 (27.8)11 NATIONAL INVESTMENTS 459.3 446.7 2.8 641.8 (28.4)12 KUWAIT INVESTMENT PROJECTS 889.2 907.5 (2.0) 898.3 (1.0)13 COAST INVESTMENT & DEVELOPMENT 158.6 172.2 (7.9) 128.5 23.4

INVESTMENT SECTOR 430.8 434.1 (0.8) 491.7 (12.4)14 KUWAIT INSURANCE COMPANY 81.6 81.6 0.0 100.3 (18.6)15 GULF INSURANCE COMPANY 230.2 206.9 11.3 393.1 (41.4)16 AL-AHLEIA INSURANCE Company 180.5 166.9 8.1 187.3 (3.6)17 WARBA INSURANCE COMPANY 196.6 190.1 3.4 176.4 11.5

INSURANCE SECTOR 140.0 132.2 5.9 177.7 (21.2)18 KUWAIT REAL ESTATE Company 111.6 126.4 (11.7) 95.2 17.2 19 UNITED REALTY COMPANY 163.2 165.2 (1.2) 169.3 (3.6)20 NATIONAL REAL ESTATE COMPANY 392.2 400.1 (2.0) 467.5 (16.1)21 SALHIAH REAL ESTATE COMPANY 710.7 717.1 (0.9) 723.6 (1.8)22 PEARL OF KUWAIT REAL ESTATE CO 323.4 323.4 0.0 323.4 0.0

REAL ESTATE SECTOR 274.0 280.4 (2.3) 289.6 (5.4)23 THE NATIONAL INDUSTRIES 259.5 268.0 (3.2) 353.1 (26.5)24 KUWAIT METAL PIPE INDUSTRIES CO 80.2 101.5 (21.0) 51.7 55.1 25 KUWAIT CEMENT CO 612.6 568.8 7.7 614.7 (0.3)26 REFRIGERATION INDUSTRIES CO 83.6 83.6 0.0 75.4 10.9 27 GULF CABEL & ELECTRICAL INDUSTRIES 647.5 671.5 (3.6) 395.7 63.6 28 CONTRACTING & MARINE SERVICES CO 225.6 213.6 5.6 244.8 (7.8)

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 336.8 340.2 (1.0) 330.8 1.8 29 KUWAIT NATIONAL CINEMAS 539.8 508.5 6.2 596.3 (9.5)30 KUWAIT HOTELS COMPANY 143.0 143.0 0.0 143.0 0.0 31 THE PUBLIC WAREHOUSING CO 1,910.9 2,045.0 (6.6) 2,112.0 (9.5)32 KUWAIT COMMERCIAL MARKETS COMPLEX 440.1 477.2 (7.8) 805.7 (45.4)33 ZAIN 2,445.4 2,351.7 4.0 1,883.5 29.8 34 AL SAFAT ENERGY HOLDING COMPANY 64.1 68.0 (5.7) 54.4 17.8

SERVICES SECTOR 1,818.2 1,787.1 1.7 1,557.5 16.7 35 LIVESTOCK TRANSPORT & TRADING CO 275.0 270.8 1.6 141.7 94.1 36 DANAH ALSAFAT FOODSTUFF 118.6 122.7 (3.3) 55.2 114.9 37 KUWAIT UNITED POULTRY CO 33.3 33.3 0.0 36.7 (9.3)38 KUWAIT FOOD CO 1,438.6 1,438.6 0.0 1,221.8 17.7

Food Sector 547.6 547.0 0.1 440.2 24.4 39 SHARJAH CEMENT CO 431.4 438.5 (1.6) 714.4 (39.6)40 GULF CEMENT CO 524.2 556.4 (5.8) 685.5 (23.5)41 UMM AL-QAIWAIN CEMENT INDUSTRIES 375.3 397.3 (5.5) 441.5 (15.0)

Non Kuwaiti Companies 261.8 269.5 (2.9) 330.1 (20.7) General Index 439.6 441.7 (0.5) 478.1 (8.1)