Airport of the Future

Public Policy View

Hans Mohrmann

March 30th, 2006

5th International Seminar on Airport Planning

Rank Country Population GDP/capita GDP

1 United States 296 $41,800 $12,361,686,801,200

2 European Union 457 $25,000 $11,423,831,450,000

3 China 1,306 $6,200 $8,099,145,634,400

4 Japan 127 $30,400 $3,873,484,217,600

5 India 1,080 $3,400 $3,672,898,919,200

6 Germany 82 $29,700 $2,448,212,283,000

7 United Kingdom 60 $30,900 $1,867,641,021,300

8 France 61 $29,900 $1,813,619,722,200

9 Italy 58 $28,300 $1,644,315,833,900

10 Brazil 186 $8,500 $1,581,958,749,000

11 Russia 143 $10,700 $1,534,597,306,300

12 Canada 33 $32,800 $1,076,005,344,800

13 Mexico 106 $10,000 $1,062,029,030,000

14 Spain 40 $25,100 $1,012,570,696,200

15 Korea, South 49 $20,300 $987,405,621,300

16 Indonesia 242 $3,700 $895,303,352,300

17 Australia 20 $32,000 $642,893,984,000

18 Taiwan 23 $26,700 $611,280,052,800

19 Iran 68 $8,100 $550,944,666,000

20 Turkey 70 $7,900 $550,318,416,100

21 Argentina 40 $13,600 $537,716,024,800

22 Thailand 64 $8,300 $532,739,666,600

23 South Africa 44 $11,900 $527,695,218,400

24 Netherlands 16 $30,500 $500,428,475,500

25 Poland 39 $12,700 $489,686,396,800

Ongoing Urbanization 80%

RankPopulation of city (proper)

Population of metropolitan

area

Percentage foreign born [4]

Cost of living [5]

Metro systems by annual passenger ridership

Airports by annual

passenger traffic

Number of skyscrapers

[6]

Number of billionaires [7]

1 Shanghai Tokyo Miami Tokyo Moscow Atlanta Hong Kong London

2 Mumbai Mexico City Toronto Osaka Tokyo Chicago New York CityNew York City

3 Karachi New York City Los Angeles London Paris London Singapore Moscow

4 Buenos Aires Mumbai Vancouver Moscow Seoul Tokyo São Paulo Geneva

5 Delhi Sao Paulo New York City Seoul Mexico City Los Angeles Seoul Los Angeles

6 Manila Delhi Singapore Geneva New York City Dallas Tokyo Hong Kong

7 Moscow Calcutta Sydney Zürich Osaka Paris IstanbulSan Francisco

8 Seoul Buenos Aires Abidjan Copenhagen London Frankfurt Rio de Janeiro Paris

9 São Paulo Jakarta London Hong Kong Hong Kong Philadelphia Toronto Tokyo

10 Istanbul Shanghai Paris Oslo St.Petersburg Las Vegas Buenos Aires Chicago

Urban Metropolis Nodes - Global City Regions (*) …

Source Mercer

Source Expedia

(*) Prof. Gerlach Cerfontaine

EU / NL Population Growth 1993 - 2005

Source: Eurostat

NL Slow Down?

EU Acceleration?

Netherlands: + 3,5%

Poland : +3%

Aging Population 1993 – 2005

Hungary

Bulgaria

Poland

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Source: Eurostat

“New” Europe Population Growth 2000 -2005

Ongoing Urbanization in the Netherlands 1999–2004

5 % occurred within the existing urban footprint; 95 % occurred by enlargement.

Growth occurred in Urban aera’s of s Noord-Holland and Zuid-Holland

In Limburg 1999- 2004 experienced an absolute decrease in population

Location: Closer to work ?

Preferred Mode: Car Work Distance: 20 KM

Prof. Gaudry Univ. Montreal quote French stats: constant 30 minute travel time since 1800

Average Commute: 30 minutes

Airport Centreof

Delta Metropolis

Evolution of a transportation facility:Grand Central New York

• Grand Central at the edge of the city • GC earned revenues by selling Air Rights to developers

• Beginning: facilitating traffic / passengers• Today: a social meeting place, shops, restaurants, bars….and transportation

Evolution of a transportation facility:Grand Central New York

Evolution of a transportation facility:Another Railway Station? (IV)

Concentrating in larger Metropolis

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

ACI 2004

ACI 1994

Mil

lio

n A

nn

ual

Pas

sen

ger

s

Average growth: 18,5 MAP

Average growth: 3,6 MAP Average growth:

1,2 MAP

Maximize Value under Urban Tsunami

Infra Driven Value Driven

“Gated Community” & virtual security

Landside Airside

TerminalCurrent situation:

Pax area

Pax area

Virtual and physical Security Fence

Landside Airside

Terminal

“Gated Community”

People area

physical Security FenceVirtual

Security Fence

A new Airport Definition:

a high mobility & 24 h services placea social meeting & gathering placea gated communitya prime AAA+ locationa Living City.

Great Skies!My Penthouse has an Airport…

Yours? Ah, I see …an old one with a Golf Course!

Great Skies!My Penthouse has an Airport…

Yours? Ah, I see …an old one with a Golf Course!

Elzenhof Park City ?

Conclusions:

1. Urbanization is ongoing in industrialized world2. Global Metropolis are specialized nodes in a global

network of City Regions 3. Urbanization = City Tsunami for airports 4. Role and character airport changes with Global City

Regions integration5. City Integration requires maximization of landside6. Airport bizz models evolve:

Infra => Bizz => Real Estate

Thank You!