air cargo market outlookaircargopedia.com/pdf/gmf2014presentation.pdfmonthly air freight evolution...
TRANSCRIPT
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Recent years have not been kind to air cargo
More than 90 large freighters grounded
Air freightovercapacity
Source: IATA, ACAS, CargoIS. Large freighters: 747F & MD-11. Parked aircraft data as of September 30 2014.
However cargo traffic growth is coming back !
October 2014Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Declining yields
High fuel price
$
Page 2
Drop in air freight demand
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
2014 growth rate estimate:
4.7%
…but today the air freight industry is growing again
October 2014Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Seabury, IATA, Airbus
Monthly air freight evolutionBillion FTKs (Freight tonne kilometres) Air freight volumes just
reached again the 2011 peak-Growth drivers:• Regional traffic• Express traffic• Emerging economies
Page 3
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Time sensitive express goods proved more resilient to the crisis
Source: Seabury
October 2014
Page 4
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
International air freight growthyear-over-year evolution (%)
11%
1%
-7%
20%
8%4% 5%4%
-3%
-12%
25%
-1%
-5%
0%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% Express
General Cargo
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Express Cargo grew
50% in 7 years-General cargo
stagnatedin the last 7 years
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Freight traffic growth and GDP are closely linked
Source: DOT, IATA, IHS Global Insight
GDP FTK
GDP and FTKs year on year growth evolution
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 est
GDP FTK
October 2014
Page 5
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
2014 YoY growth (estimates)
GDP 2.6%FTK 4.7%-Together traffic and world GDP are recovering
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
47%
49%
4%
34%
62%
4%
World GDP is set to nearly double over 20 years
Source: IHS Global Insight
2013
2033Emerging economies will account for almost half of world GDP in 2033
Distribution of worldwide GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033
DevelopingEmergingAdvanced
History Forecast
34%
62%
47%
49%
Total worldwide GDP evolution Real in $US trillion
October 2014
Page 6
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
DevelopingEmergingAdvanced
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 est.
World Trade FTK
Cargo traffic and world trade are also well linked
Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus
World trade and FTKs growth evolution
October 2014
Page 7
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
World trade shows continuous signs of improvement-World trade is driven by emerging markets, which are experiencing solid
growth momentum
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
World trade is set to more than double by 2033
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus, Seabury
Total world international trade evolution (Trillion $US)
In the future, the traditional air cargo trade links will further diversify
October 2014
Page 8
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033
DevelopingEmergingAdvanced
History Forecast
x3
World trade will grow on average
4.3%over the next 20 years -Emerging countries’ trade
to almost triple over the next 20 years
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
New trade links will alter the current trunk routes
World trade in 2013 and 2033 by region
Geographic locations for supply and demand will be different – traffic and cargo capacity will follow
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
Asia/Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
Africa
CIS
Middle East
Trade (billion $US)
2013 trade 2033 trade
October 2014
Page 9
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: IHS Global Insight
Traffic within Asia-Pacific will be equivalent to PRC-North America flow-Latin America and
Africa will also drive growth
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Africa, Middle East and Latin America to lead growthalong with Asia-Pacific
GDP growth rate, historical and forecast
4.1%4.2%
4.4%
3.2%
2.4%2.6%
1.9%
4.6%4.5%
3.9% 3.8%
3.1%
2.5%
1.9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Africa Asia/Pacific Middle East LatinAmerica
CIS NorthAmerica
Europe
1993-2013 2013-2033
October 2014
Page 10
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
Mature economies’ GDP to grow at
2.1%Rest of the world to grow at
4.8% -Asymmetric economic
growth will alter cargo traffic
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Advanced Developing Emerging
2033
2013
1993
X2.7
X1.9X1.5
Global supply: production centres will shift even further into emerging economies
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
Industrial Production by market(base year 2013 = 100)
In the future, air cargo traffic between production centres will be redefined
October 2014
Page 11
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Further outsourcingof production to low labour cost countries-• More market
fragmentation will be experienced
• New routes will add to traditional East-West trunk routes
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Global demand: purchasing power will follow suit
Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus
Global Middle Class(Millions of people)
Middle-class: Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
October 2014
Page 12
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
679 673264 252
1,413
4,450
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2013 2033
Emerging countries2,356
5,375
North AmericaEurope
World Population
% of world population
8,500
63%
7,200
33%
X2.3
X3.2
Middle class in mature economies will stagnate-Middle class in emerging
countries will triple
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Emerging economies are not only located in Asia-Pacific
Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus
500 million people
Latin America
430 million people
Africa
380 million people
Eastern Europe & CIS
3500 million people
Asia-Pacific
60million people
Middle East
October 2014
Page 13
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Growing population and consumption will drive trade and air freight
Population in emerging countries in 2014
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
GMF freight forecast overview
• 20 years freighter aircraft demand forecast of jet freighters over 10 tonnes
• Traffic forecast modeling 150 distinct traffic flows
• Fleet build-ups covering 197 freight carriers
• Freighters fleet divided in 3 segments:• Small jet freighters: 10-30 tonnes• Mid-size freighters: 30-80 tonnes• Large freighters: >80 tonnes
October 2014
Page 14
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
4.5% world FTK growth, driven by the strong traffic growth of emerging countries
Freight traffic growth, domestic + internationalFTKs (billions)
Future traffic with emerging economies will alter today’s freighter fleets and networks
Growth Rate 2013-2033
October 2014
Page 15
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
ForecastHistory2.7%
Advanced –Advanced CAGR
4.9%
Advanced –Emerging CAGR
5.0%
Emerging –Advanced CAGR
6.2%
Emerging –Emerging CAGR
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
80%
20 year world annual FTK growth
4.5 %-Total traffic growth includes main deck and belly capacity
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0
100
200
300
400
500
2013 2033
Dedicated freightersBelly cargo
51%
56%
Belly capacity to capture market shares over main deck
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Page 16
October 2014
Worldwide share of belly vs dedicated cargo trafficEstimates FTKs (billion)
Cargo traffic growth 4.5%
Belly traffic growth 4.9%
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
Due to the faster expansion of passenger traffic, belly capacity will capture market shares-Impact is mainly on long haul flows and larger freighters
Page 16
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Dedicated freightersBelly cargo
0
50
100
150
200
250
FTK 2013 FTK 20330
50
100
150
200
250
FTK 2013 FTK 2033
Cargo growth 4.7% p.a.
55%
65%
Belly shift will impact particularly long haul flows
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
43% 45%
Page 17
October 2014
Short haul <1,500nm
Medium haul1,500nm< & <5,000nm
Share of belly vs dedicated cargo trafficEstimated FTKs (billion)
0
50
100
150
200
250
FTK 2013 FTK 2033
Cargo growth 4.8% p.a.
54%
55%
Long Haul >5,000nm
Cargo growth 3.4% p.a.
Belly growth 3.6% p.a. Belly growth 4.9% p.a.
Page 17
Belly growth 5.6% p.a.
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Freighter fleet will increase to almost 2700 aircraft over 20 years
Freighter fleet
1,605
287
1,318
1040
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Beginning 2014 2033
October 2014
Page 18
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
Growth
Replacement
Stay in service
New Built803
Conversion1555
2,645
55% of deliveries are for replacement-Future fleet will be a mix of new built and converted freighters
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The future freighter fleet distribution will reflect the growing influence of emerging markets
World fleet
Asia Pacific fleet is setto triple as growth market
North America fleet is mainlya replacement market
775977
North America
337452
Europe & CIS
74162
Latin America 4986Africa
67170
Middle East
303798
Asia Pacific
2033: 26452014: 1605
October 2014
Page 19
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
800 new built freighters to be delivered over the next 20 years
Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years
731
212
414
389
0
500
1,000
1,500
Small Mid-Size Large
New freighters
Conversions
601612
1145
10t < payload < 30t 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t
October 2014
Page 20
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
Mid-size drivers• Replacement for: US,
EU• Large growth in Asia
Pacific• New routes in Middle
East, Latin America, Africa-
Large freighters will face increasing competition from belly capacity
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Proportion of future freighters
29%
Airbus 2014 forecast key numbers
20 year annual FTK growth
4.5%
20 year demand for aircraft deliveries
2358803
Total
New
Business volume for new freighters
$210bn
Mid-size
Large
47%24%Small
October 2014
Page 21
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus GMF 2014
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Airbus recognises the need for mid-size freighters
October 2014Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Page 22
Nearly 50% of all freighters will be mid-size-The A330-200F is the most modern mid-size freighter on the market
A330 Freighters: From short, regional express routes to long haul general cargo
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The A330F concept: Connecting diverse economies with diverse networks
204,447flight hours
59,614take-offs
99.5%reliability
Flying East-West, North-South, long-haul, short-haul, regional operations and to new markets
October 2014
Page 23
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Source: Airbus (Data up to September 2014 OR = >15’ delays + Cancellations + Diversions + IFTBs
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
October 2014Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Page 24
$300
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
$2,300
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
COC*/t
Demand(Tonnes)
A330-200F
777F
747-8F
Today’s large freighters only work on the heaviest trade lanes
Large freighters need high demand and payloads all year-Mid-size freighters are more efficient when fuel, demand or yields fluctuate
As the global economy changes shape, airlines must adapt their capacity and network
Costs per tonne carried
- 35% High risk
COC*: Cash Operating Costs - Includes Fuel, Maintenance, Nav&Landing fees, Crew costs 3,000nm sector – JAR 5% flight profile
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
October 2014Airbus Cargo GMF 2014
Page 25
The ‘one-type-fits-all’ air cargo model no longer works
Mid-sized freighters
• When belly cargo is non existent or insufficient
• For diversified networks• A flexible option for a
changing industry
Belly cargo
• Basic cargo offering: limited cost, limited risk
• Growing available capacity on long haul trunk routes
100t+ freighters
• For a limited number of high demand trunk routes
• Challenged by growing belly lift on longer hauls
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are granted by thedelivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not beused for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supportinggrounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.
October 2014
Page 26
Airbus Cargo GMF 2014