A. Horányi, Gabriella Csima, P. Szabó, G. Szépszó,

Hungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, HungaryHungarian Meteorological Service (HMS), Budapest, Hungary

J. Bartholy, A. Hunyady, I. Pieczka, R. Pongrácz, Cs. Torma

Eötvös Loránd University (ELU), Department of Meteorology, Budapest, HungaryEötvös Loránd University (ELU), Department of Meteorology, Budapest, Hungary

APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL APPLICATION OF A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE CLIMATE MODEL MINI-ENSEMBLE

FOR THE CARPATHIAN BASINFOR THE CARPATHIAN BASIN

EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October, 2009EMS/ECAM ANNUAL MEETING, 2009 / Toulouse, 28 September – 2 October, 2009

CONTENTCONTENTCONTENTCONTENT

• Members of the regional climate modelling mini-Members of the regional climate modelling mini-ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO ensemble (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM and REMO models)models)

• Validation results (1961-1990)Validation results (1961-1990)

• Projections (2021-2050 and 2071-2100)Projections (2021-2050 and 2071-2100)

• SummarySummary

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARYREGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARYREGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARYREGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS IN HUNGARY

RCMRCM ALADINALADIN PRECISPRECIS RegCMRegCM REMOREMORESOLUTIONRESOLUTION 10 km10 km 25 km25 km 10 km10 km 25 km25 km

LEVELSLEVELS 31 hybrid31 hybrid 19 hybrid19 hybrid 18 sigma18 sigma 20 hybrid20 hybrid

METHODMETHOD Time slicesTime slices Time slicesTime slices Time slicesTime slices TransientTransient

VALIDATION VALIDATION RUNSRUNS

LBCsLBCs

1961-1961-20020000:: ERA40 ERA401961-19901961-1990:: ARPEGEARPEGE

1961-19901961-1990:: ERA40 ERA40 1961-19901961-1990:: HadCM3 HadCM3

1961-1961-20020000:: ERA40 ERA401961-19901961-1990::

ECHAMECHAM

1961-20001961-2000:: ERA40 ERA40 1951-20501951-2050::

ECHAMECHAM

SCENARIO SCENARIO RUNSRUNS

2021-20502021-2050 A1B A1B2071-21002071-2100 A1B A1B

2071-21002071-2100 A2 A22071-21002071-2100 B2 B2

2021-20502021-2050 A1B A1B2071-21002071-2100 A1B A1B

1951-20501951-2050 A1B A1B

THE INTEGRATION DOMAINSTHE INTEGRATION DOMAINSTHE INTEGRATION DOMAINSTHE INTEGRATION DOMAINS

Hungary

REMO

ALADIN

PRECIS

RegCM

Evaluation area for maps

VALIDATION RESULTS VALIDATION RESULTS PERIOD: PERIOD: 1961-19901961-1990, LBC: , LBC: ERA40ERA40, ,

VALIDATION DATASET: VALIDATION DATASET: CRU10’CRU10’

VALIDATION RESULTS VALIDATION RESULTS PERIOD: PERIOD: 1961-19901961-1990, LBC: , LBC: ERA40ERA40, ,

VALIDATION DATASET: VALIDATION DATASET: CRU10’CRU10’

ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (°C) - 1961-1990

ALADIN is too cold, while REMO is too warm! PRECIS and RegCM have less bias, but rather cold over the mountains (not shown)

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (%) - 1961-1990

All the models are rather humid (especially ALADIN and RegCM) For PRECIS and especially for REMO also some dry areas can be identified

PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS PERIODS: PERIODS: 2021-20502021-2050 and and 2071-21002071-2100

PROJECTIONS PROJECTIONS PERIODS: PERIODS: 2021-20502021-2050 and and 2071-21002071-2100

MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES (°C)MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE VALUES (°C)

The standard deviation between the models is larger in The standard deviation between the models is larger in summer (than in other seasons) indicating larger summer (than in other seasons) indicating larger

uncertaintiesuncertainties

2071–2100, 3 models; 4 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2experiments; A1B, A2, B2

2021–2050; 3 models; 2021–2050; 3 models; A1BA1B

MONTHLY MEAN PECIPITATION VALUES (mm/month)MONTHLY MEAN PECIPITATION VALUES (mm/month)

The ALADIN model has very different behaviour, than the The ALADIN model has very different behaviour, than the others, the annual cycle is very „flat” for RegCMothers, the annual cycle is very „flat” for RegCM

2021–2050; 3 models; 2021–2050; 3 models; A1BA1B

2071–2100, 3 models; 4 2071–2100, 3 models; 4 experiments; A1B, A2, B2experiments; A1B, A2, B2

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1961-1990

2071-2100/A1B

2021-2050/A1B

ALADIN

ALADINALADIN REGCMREGCM PRECISPRECIS REMOREMO

JAN

UA

RY

JAN

UA

RY

JULY

JULY

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1961-1990

2071-2100/A1B

2021-2050/A1B

ALADIN

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1961-1990

2071-2100/A1B

2021-2050/A1B

REGCM

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1961-1990

2071-2100/A1B

2021-2050/A1B

REGCM

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1961-1990

2071-2100/A2

2071-2100/B2

PRECIS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1961-1990

2071-2100/A2

2071-2100/B2

PRECIS

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1961-1990

2021-2050/A1B

REMO

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1961-1990

2021-2050/A1B

REMO

CHANGE OF RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF DAILY MEAN CHANGE OF RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE (1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100)TEMPERATURE (1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100)

Remarkable shift of the summer temperature distribution Remarkable shift of the summer temperature distribution for the PRECIS modelfor the PRECIS model

-150-100

-500

50100150200250300350400

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(mm/hó) 2021-2050, A1B

-150-100

-500

50100150200250300350400

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(mm/hó) 2071-2100

THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CHANGE OF PRECIPITATIONCHANGE OF PRECIPITATION

The changes are rather small and mostly not significant The changes are rather small and mostly not significant (except the summer precipitation decrease)(except the summer precipitation decrease)

2021-2050

2071-2100

mm/monthmm/month

AAnnn.n.

MMAAMM

JJJJAA

SSOONN

DDJJFF

The probability of temperature increaseThe probability of temperature increase 1 1 CC 2021-20502021-2050 2 2 CC 4 4 CC 2071-21002071-2100 6 6 CC

THE TEMPERATURE THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE DOESN’T CHANGE DOESN’T

EXCEED 2 EXCEED 2 C FOR 2021-C FOR 2021-20502050

THE TEMPERATURE THE TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MORE CHANGE WILL BE MORE

THAN 4 THAN 4 C FOR 2071-2100C FOR 2071-2100

AAnnn.n.

MMAAMM

JJJJAA

SSOONN

DDJJFF

The probability of precipitation decreaseThe probability of precipitation decrease -10% -10% 2021-20502021-2050 -5% -5% -10% -10% 2071-21002071-2100 -5%-5%

THE PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE WILL BE LESS DECREASE WILL BE LESS

THAN 10% FOR 2021-THAN 10% FOR 2021-20502050

THE PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION DECREASE MIGHT BE DECREASE MIGHT BE SIGNIFICANT (50%) IN SIGNIFICANT (50%) IN

SUMMER FOR 2071-2100SUMMER FOR 2071-2100

AAnnn.n.

MMAAMM

JJJJAA

SSOONN

DDJJFF

The probability of precipitation increaseThe probability of precipitation increase 5% 5% 2021-20502021-2050 10% 10% 5% 5% 2071-21002071-2100 10% 10%

THE PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% INCREASE WILL BE 5-10%

IN AUTUMNIN AUTUMN FOR FOR 2021-20502021-2050

THE PRECIPITATION THE PRECIPITATION INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% INCREASE WILL BE 5-10% IN AUTUMN AND WINTER IN AUTUMN AND WINTER

FOR 2071-2100FOR 2071-2100

SUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARYSUMMARY• Four regional climate models (Four regional climate models (ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM ALADIN, PRECIS, RegCM andand REMO REMO) are adapted and ) are adapted and

used in Hungaryused in Hungary• The performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat differentThe performance of the models (based on the validation runs) are somewhat different• First results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for HungaryFirst results of the ensemble evaluation indicate that for Hungary

• 2021-20502021-2050• The The temperaturetemperature is projected to is projected to increaseincrease with 1-2 with 1-2 CC• The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!)The annual precipitation is projected to slightly decrease (not significantly!)• The summer precipitation decrease is very likelyThe summer precipitation decrease is very likely

• 2071-21002071-2100• The temperature is projected to increase with around 4 The temperature is projected to increase with around 4 CC• Slight decrease of annual precipitation is likelySlight decrease of annual precipitation is likely• The The summer precipitation decrease summer precipitation decrease is almost certainis almost certain

• Some limitationsSome limitations• Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three Only four models are applied (for the ensemble evaluation only three can be considered)can be considered)• The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same!The used scenarios (A1B, A2, B2) are not the same!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!ATTENTION!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!ATTENTION!