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Agricultural Outlook ForumCrystal Gateway Marriott Hotel
Arlington, VirginiaFebruary 22, 2013
Brad RippeyUSDA Meteorologist
Washington, D.C.
Weather Outlook for 2013“2012 Weather Review”
Drought Evolution, 2010 to Present
La Niña-Driven Drought, 2010-11 N. Atlantic Jet, Winter/Spring 2011-12
North Atlantic Block, Summer 2012 Erratic Weather, Late 2012, Early 2013
Jul. 24, 2012:USDM record
with 63.86% ofCONUS in drought.
Sep. 25, 2012:USDM record
with 65.45% ofCONUS in drought.
Feb. 12, 2013:55.73% of
CONUS in drought.
• Advantages of percentiles:– Can be applied to any parameter– Can be used for any length of data record– Puts drought in historical perspective
Percentiles and the U.S. Drought Monitor
• D4, Exceptional Drought: once per 50 to 100 years• D3, Extreme Drought: once per 20 to 50 years• D2, Severe Drought: once per 10 to 20 years• D1, Moderate Drought: once per 5 to 10 years• D0, Abnormally Dry: once per 3 to 5 years
U.S. Crop Production HighlightsJanuary 11, 2013
• Corn: 123.4 bushels/acre, down 26% from 166.0 bushels/acre in June.
• Soybeans: 39.6 bushels/acre, down 10% from 43.9 bushels/acre in June.
• Sorghum: 49.8 bushels/acre, down 23% from 65.0 bushels/acre in June.
Crop Production Highlights, Continued
• Corn: Production is down nearly 4.0 billion bushels (27%) from June to 10.8 billion bushels.
• Soybeans: Production is down 194 million bushels (6%) from June to 3.01 billion bushels.
• Sorghum: Production is down 88 million bushels (26%) from June to 247 million bushels.
2012 U.S. Corn Yield Forecast(Bushels / Acre)
Source: USDA* Based on field surveys
* * * * *
2012 U.S. Soybean Yield Forecast(Bushels / Acre)
* Based on field surveys Source: USDA
**
*
* *
Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment1980‐2012
2011
19981992
19862006
McLean County, Illinois, July 26, 2012
Polk County, Iowa, August 7, 2012
Texas County, Okla., July 31, 2012
Ellis County, Kansas, July 6, 2012
Washington Co.,Georgia,
Nov. 2012
Kingfisher Co.,Oklahoma,Nov. 2012
3437
46
53
61
7073 73 72 72 71 72 72 72 74 75 76
73 73 71 71 69 69 69 71 73 73 73 73 73 73 72 70 68 69 68 67 67
12 11
17
2631
36
45
52 52 52 53 51 51 52 53 52 5451 51 49 49 49 49
46 4853 54 54 55 55 54 54 52 52 52 51 49 49
4 3 48 10 11
15
2833
37 36 37 37 35 35 34 35 34 33 31 31 30 32 30 32 33 34 34 35 35 35 3431 31 31 31 30 30
2 3 48
13 14 13 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jun
5 20
12
Jun
12 2
012
Jun
19 2
012
Jun
26 2
012
Jul 3
201
2
Jul 1
0 20
12
Jul 1
7 20
12
Jul 2
4 20
12
Jul 3
1 20
12
Aug
7 2
012
Aug
14
2012
Aug
21
2012
Aug
28
2012
Sep
4 2
012
Sep
11
2012
Sep
18
2012
Sep
25
2012
Oct
2 2
012
Oct
9 2
012
Oct
16
2012
Oct
23
2012
Oct
30
2012
Nov
6 2
012
Nov
13
2012
Nov
20
2012
Nov
27
2012
Dec
4 2
012
Dec
11
2012
Dec
18
2012
Dec
25
2012
Jan
1 20
13
Jan
8 20
13
Jan
15 2
013
Jan
22 2
013
Jan
29 2
013
Feb
5 20
13
Feb
12 2
013
Feb
19 2
013
Percen
t
Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)
Severe or more intense drought (D2+)
Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)
Exceptional drought (D4)
United States Cattle Areas Located in Drought
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0
2012
2004
Winter Wheat ConditionsJanuary 27, 2013
State VP P F G EXOklahoma 30 39 26 5 0Kansas 14 25 41 19 1Nebraska 15 35 42 8 0S. Dakota 16 50 31 3 0Montana 2 7 50 39 2Illinois 0 3 30 60 7________________________________________Rangeland and Pasture, Very Poor to Poor:Kansas, 85%; Oklahoma, 82%
Texas Winter Wheat ConditionsFebruary 17, 2013
State VP P F G EXTexas 23 26 37 13 1________________________________________Rangeland and Pasture, Very Poor to Poor:Texas, 53%; Florida, 50%; Arizona, 44%
Percent U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment1909‐2012
19171933
1935 200219511955 19891928
Iowa in Drought in Mid-Februaryand Iowa Corn Yield (Divided by Two)
• Streamlines the USDA Secretarial designation process by eliminating steps from the current process;
• A reduced interest rate for emergency loans that effectively lowers the current rate from 3.75 percent to 2.25 percent;
• Preserves the ability of a state governor or Indian Tribal Council to request a Secretarial Disaster Designation;
• Removes the requirement that a request for a disaster designation be initiated only by a state governor or Indian Tribal Council;
• Further streamlines the disaster designation process for severe drought occurrences by utilizing the U.S. Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas with no further documentation;
• Does not impose any new requirements on producers or the public.• Led to drought disaster declarations in 2,254 counties in 39 states.
“Fast Track” Secretarial Disaster Designation Process
