agricultural innovations and sustainable development,switch on irrigation pumps •needs effective...
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1st SRII Asia Summit 2013 16- 18 September, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Agricultural Innovations and
Sustainable Development, 1st SRII Asia Summit, 17 September 2013
Hiroyuki Konuma
FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific
Cereal production for 2013 (as of July 2013) is expected to increase by 7.2% to 2,479 million m/t with world record, contributed by increase of wheat 6.8%,
course grain 9.7% and milled rice by 1.9%.
2
Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand
of the growing future population?
3
Future Outlook Towards Year 2050
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World Population Trends
Source: UN, 2011
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
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50
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55
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65
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85
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95
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25
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65
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70
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75
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80
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85
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90
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95
21
00
developed Sub-Saharan Africa
NothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and Caribb
South Asia Eastern Asia
percentage annual growth rate (right scale)
millions
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Global Urbanization Trends
Source: UN, 2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.01
95
0
19
55
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Rural Urban
billions
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Food Consumption Trends (Kcal/person/day)
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050
Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia East Asia
60% increase in food production needed by 2050
(77% increase, if developing countries only)
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56
317
170
24
77
60
0 100 200 300 400
developed countries
developing countries
world
percent
2005/07-
2050 (projected)
1961-2005/07 (observed)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Targeted Increases in Food Production Must be met under Existing Constraints
• Stagnation of expansion of arable land
• Increasing scarcity of water resources
• Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of investment in agriculture in recent decades
• Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste
• Various uncertainties such as future crude oil prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.
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Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries (only 5% of existing land can be expanded mainly in Africa and Latin America)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Developed countries
sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America Near East / North Africa
South Asia East Asia
Arable land in use, 2005/07
Additional land projected to be in use, 2050
million ha
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Increased Production will Increase the Demand for Water
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Source: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP 2011
Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production
Growth in cereal yields is slowing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Wheat Rice (paddy) Maize Total cereals
1961-2007
1987-2007
2005-2050
Growth rate, percent per year
Source: Bruinsma 2011
13 8-Oct-2012
8-Oct-2012 14
Crude oil price increased over 500%
since 1999
FAO Food Price Index remains high at 211 point in June 2013. nearly 50% high in real term if compared with that of 10 years
ago.
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“worse case” 2080 scenario:
• less harvested area, up to -39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)
• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa
Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011)
Source: IPCC (2007)
Uncertainty: climate change
The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
80
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82
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84
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98
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00
20
02
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20
08
Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America
Number of Disasters
Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production
Future Outlook Towards Year 2050
Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of the growing
future population?
Yes! we can, we have to
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Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
world developing developed
(percent)
Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050
Uncertainties ( uncertain factors influencing future food security)
• Crude oil prices hike
• Impact of climate changes
• Bio-fuel development and competition between food crops and bio-energy crops on the use of land and water
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We need innovation
• Ensure sustainable agricultural productivity growth- enhance research, extension and communication linkages
• Support to small scale farmers for capacity development and linking them with markets
• Harmonization of bio-energy development with food security policy and zoning/land use planning
• Minimize negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters- adaptation and mitigation (early warning, surveillance, etc)
• Reduce post-harvest losses and food waste
• Improve the quality and reliability of agric. market information and statistical data
• Promote food quality ,safety and consumer confidence
What is Innovation?
• Application of new solutions to present day problems/requirements – ICT mediated agricultural extension,
– use mobile phones to remotely monitor and switch on irrigation pumps
• Needs effective products, processes, services, technologies
• An enabling environment & favourable policies
Building blocks for Innovations
DATA
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
ENVIRONMENT
Building blocks for Innovations DATA
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
ENVIRONMENT
Importance of Open DATA
Gangnam Style About 181,000,000 results
Rinderpest About 233,000 results
Need for Open Data
http://esciencenews.com/
There is no human editor behind e! Science News!
Need for Open Data & Standards
FAO’s AIMS is a space for accessing and discussing Agricultural Information Management Standards, tools and methodologies, connecting information workers worldwide to build a global community of practice
fao.org/aims
ciard.net
Coherance in Information for Agricultural Research for Development works to make the outputs of agricultural research more accessible.
Peanut IS NOT Groundnut!
• Agriculture needs SEMANTIC Searches
• FAO’s AGROVOC provides the glue
For a traditional text-based search (like Google) PEANUT is not GROUNDNUT
http://aims.fao.org/standards/agrovoc
Building blocks for Innovations DATA
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
ENVIRONMENT
Processes re-engineering
• FAO’s active surveillance for H5N1 HPAI with the use of mobile phones (Bangladesh) – faster, more efficient than traditional processes
– Turn-around time greatly reduced thus helping in curbing the spread of the disease
• Multi-village extension advisories sessions promote peer-peer interaction among farmers – New information flows
– Farmers are the best innovators!
Importance of agricultural product Traceability
• Fresh Produce Traceability for Quality Control – RFIDs, Barcodes, Structured database solutions
• Bulk Produce Traceability for Product Authenticity
• for Safety and Sustainability (Seafood)
• for Disease Control (Livestock) – Cattle tagging
Traceability System Adopted in Developing Countries
Key Challenges are in data collection, processes, technological solutions, business models, costs, and learning.
Building blocks for Innovations DATA
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
ENVIRONMENT
Technology mediated solutions
– Mobiles communication
– GIS
– Precision Farming : Nano technology
– Sensor networks
– Facilitate hyper-local information flows
– Realizing “Big Data” in Agriculture
– Crowdsourced data acquired through apps
ICTs enhance agricultural innovations
• Enables real-time communications to/from farmers
• Identifies counterfeit crop production products
• Mitigates through micro-insurance
• Encourages more investment in the sector
Technology as the true enabler
• 6.8 B mobile connections :: 7.1 B population
- Agricultural Extension
- Meteorological data
- Early warning systems
- Market Price Information
- Traceability
- Financial services
Building blocks for Innovations DATA
PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
ENVIRONMENT
Analysis, specially complex climate data
Availability of hyper-local data
Local capacity to access and act upon information
Incentives for producers to participate in information flows
Cost – related to both service/analysis and telecom policies
Photo credit: FAO
Environment :: the challenges faced
Enabling Environment
• Favorable policies
• Capacity to implement and monitor
• Scalable solutions
• Community of Practice
Participants of the Mobile technologies for food security, agriculture and rural development workshop identifying the public policy needed to sustain MAIS
DATA PROCESSES
TECHNOLOGY
Agricultural Innovations
for a Sustainable
Development
Effective policies, frameworks and capacities provides the glue for this schema
ENVIRONMENT
THANK YOU [email protected]