agri commodity reports for the week (25th - 29th july '11)

8/6/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th July '11)

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Global Research Limited

Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

WEEKLYREPORT

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AGRIAGRIMarket

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Analyst Speak

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WeeklyChart

JEERA ( JU LY)

JEERA EDGES HIGHER ON EXPORT DEMAND


ExpertOpinion

WeeklyChart

GUARSEED ( JU LY)

GUARSEED EXTENDS GAIN ON EXPORT DEMAND


ExpertOpinion

[ 2 ] [ 3 ]

Jeera futures continued to add to the gains of the previous week owing to fresh overseas enquires and settled 1.78% higher. Turkey has not left with enough

quality crop due to rains in the last week of May causing damage to the standing crop. Further there are reports of fresh enquires from China from India. This is

supporting prices in the domestic market. Arrivals in the domestic mandi stood at 14,000 bags while off takes stood at 16000 bags on Thursday. Production of

Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. Jeera prices in the intraday are likely to trade firm due to fresh

export enquiries from overseas buyers particularly China. In medium to long term (August onwards), Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas

and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower

side owing to lower production. This is li kely to support prices.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Export demand Low carryover stocks

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Last week Jeera did our target of 15900 above

the level of 15500 and even closed above it.

Jeera was in a continuous uptrend last week

and price was not sustaining at lower levels. For

the next week Jeera July has resistance at

17100 and support at 16100.

MARKET OVERVIEW

Jeera is in a consolidated phase and one

should use the strategy of sell on higher

levels. If in the coming week Jeera

sustains below the level of 16100 then we

can expect the level of 15700, and if it

sustains above 17100 then we can see

the level of 17500.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

19831

18045

17394

16259

15608

14473

12687

Guar seed and Guar gum futures extended gains of the previous week owing to robust export demand and declining stocks of Guar in the physical markets.

Guar futures hit new historical highs of Rs.4,260/qtl. Reports of probable decline i n the acreage in Rajasthan also supported prices. The government has

targeted an area of 27 lakh hectares as compared to 30 lakh hectares in 2010. Rise in the exports for the period of April 2010 to February 2011 also supported

prices to remain firm. Delay in advancement of monsoon over major Guar growing regions of Rajasthan was supporting Guar prices since the end of June.

Lower stocks of Guar seed as well as Guar gum as a result of robust export demand are also supporting bullish market sentiments. Guar complex may witness

very volatile sessions in the coming days due to ongoing monsoon season. Guar futures may trade firm owing to robust export demand. However, good rainfall

in the major guar growing districts of Rajasthan in coming days might cap the gains in the short term. Also, area sown up till date in Rajasthan in irrigated area is

better compared to the previous year. This is likely to weigh on the prices further. In the long term (September), robust export demand for Indian Guar gum from

Oil companies may support Guar prices. However, in the coming months (July August), rainfall distribution over Northwest India would be an important factor

to be watched for as the price movement during this period mainly depends on monsoon.


Good export demand Decline in acreage


Last week Guarseed did our target of 4260

above the level of 4200 and even closed at its

weekly high. Guarseed is in a bullish phase and

prices were in a continuous uptrend throughout

the last week. For the next week Guarseed has

resistance at 4750 and support at 4500.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For next week in Guar seed traders

should go for buying at lower levels

strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the

level of 4750 we can see the level of

4800, and below 4500 it can touch the

level of 4460.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

5629

5058

4868

4487

4297

3916

3345


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WeeklyChart

SOYABEAN ( A U G U S T )

SOYBEAN EDGES HIGHER ON LIMITED STOCKS


ExpertOpinion

WeeklyChart

CHANA ( )A U G U S T

CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON IMPROVED DEMAND


ExpertOpinion

[ 4 ] [ 5 ]

NCDEX August Soybean futures ended higher on third consecutive day due to lower existing carry over stock (around 10-12 lakh bags). However, higher

sowing acreage of Soybean may cap higher limit. Sowing acreage of kharif oilseeds increased to 13.35 lakh hectares till July 14, 2011 as compared with 8.75

lakh hectares last during the same period. However, sowing acreage of Soybean increased to 7.58 l akh hectare as compared to 5.02 lakh hectare. Government

in it's 4th advance estimate has estimated the record production of India's oilseeds at 31.10 mil lion tonnes in 2010-11 as compared to 24.93 Milli on tonnes in

2009-10. Soybean output is estimated at 12.66 million tonnes against 10.05 million tonnes in 2009-10, Groundnut at 7.54 million tonnes against 5.51 million

tonnes in 2009-10, rapeseed and mustard 7.67 million tonnes against 6.41 million tonnes. Arrivals of Soybean was 45,000 bags in Madhya Pradesh (bags=100

quintal). Arrivals in Indore Mandi were around 4,000 bags. Arrivals in Maharashtra were 20,000 bags and Rajasthan 15,000 bags. Soybean prices in Indore

mandi (auction) was Rs 2230-2260/quintal. USDA's weekly export sales report released on Thursday, July 14th, 2011 which shows that the export sales for

Soybeans came at 4,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 651,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 656,200. Net meal sales came i n at

14,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 15,700. Net oil sales came in at 1,300 metric tonnes for

the current marketing year and 300 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,600.


Limited stocks Improved demand


Last week Soybean did our target of 2400 above

the level of 2370 and even closed above it.

Initially last week Soybean opened down but we

saw good short covering in the later part of the

week and price has sustained above the

important level of 2400. For the next week

Soybean has resistance at 2465 and support at

2400.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For next week in Soybean one should go

for buy on lower level strategy. If it

sustains above 2465 we can see the level

of 2495 and on the downside if it sustains

below 2400 level we can see Soybean at

2360 level.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

2673

2534

2485

2395

2346

2256

2117

Chana futures gained almost 1% higher on account of improved demand ahead of festive seasons. Demand from the local stockists and reports of decline in

the area sown under pulses till 15thJuly 2011 is likely to support prices. There are reports of 0.93 million acres decline in the acreage of peas in Canada to

around 2.52 million acres during 2011-12 also supported bullish market sentiments. Area under Chickpeas in Australia during 2011-12 is forecasted to be l ower

by 44.50% to 3.03 lakh hectares but adequate rainfall in the month of May has raised hopes of better yield. IMD has predicted monsoon to be below normal in

the peak growing period, of July and August. Cumulative rainfall till 13th July being pushed 3% below Long Period Average. In Central India and South

Peninsula (Kharif Pulses producing regions) monsoon are expected to be 95% of the LPA. Chana futures are likely to trade firm owing to improved demand

from local buyers amidst reduced arrivals in the domestic mandi. In the short to medium term, prices will also takes cues from the sowing progress of Kharif

Pulses mainly Tur and Urad, which is so far estimated l ower and monsoon progress over the major Pulses growing areas. The current predictions with respect

to monsoon and sowing acreage point towards downward projections of Kharif output which may provide support to the prices. Chana Prices may gain by Rs.

100-150 from the current levels.


Improved demand Decrease in sowing area


Last week Chana did our target of 3050 above

the level of 3000 and even closed above it. Last

week Chana was not sustaining at lower levels

and we saw good buying coming at every dip.

For the next week Chana has resistance at 3100

and support at 2950.

MARKET OVERVIEW

For next week in Chana one should go for

buy on lower levels strategy. If it sustains

above 3100 we can see the level of 3150

and on the downside if it sustains below

the level of 2950 we can see Chana at

2905 level.

STRATEGY

WEEKLY PIVOTS

Script Levels

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

3340

3174

3117

3008

2951

2842

2676


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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011 Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

[ 6 ] [ 7 ]

Weekly Market Update

Symbol Exchange ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPrevious

CloseOpen LowHigh Close

Qty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)*

* Turnover Till Friday

NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 19-AUG -11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15432 15400 1512416910 16743 103761 1311 19134 141,104.02

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 7280 7234 69897420 7390 26810 110 8050 14,015.02

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL

4096 4107 41074678 4678 1738370 167440582 655,111.91

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2933 2936 29003066 3060 1442350 127 230230 381,473.64

SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 19-AUG -11 RS/QUINTAL 2310.5 2309.5 22842356 2346.5 301000 36 108750 59,664.38

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 660.9 658.2 652.95670.6 669.8 886150 8.9 163340 538,695.84

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 2955 2951 29333009 2993 716150 38 237490 193,507.20

COCUDAKL NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1336 1340 13221368 1357 261900 21 72210 32,106.23

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-SEPT- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 1033 1031 1055.51069 21120 22.5 11240 3,544.23

POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 404.6 406.4 373.5406.6 375 110220 -29.6 35145 3,941.52

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 30-APR-12 Kapas RS./20KG 657 655 651673.8 660 7062 3 4534 8,497.84

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1208.4 1216 11991216 1206 41080 -2.4 36760 4,460.32

MENTHA OIL MCX 30-JULY-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1120.4 1110 1078.71147.3 1098.2 40770 -22.2 2650 151663.49

CARDAMOM MCX 13-AUG-11 Cardamom RS/KG 842.5 848 845.3891.8 880 13202 37.5 2868 9983.17

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 19-AUG -11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 28385 28400 2792129959 29640 38130 1255 10613 84,738.24

19-AUG -11

Agri Watch

1031

12875 12930 1281114754 14754 113955 111451879 141,844.81


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Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011 Week : July 25th to 30th July 2011

8 ] [ 9 ]

Weekly Market Update

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 16743 8.50

NCDEX PEPPER 29640 4.42

NCDEX TURMERIC 7390 1.51

NCDEX GUARSEED 4678 14.21

NCDEX GUARGUM 14754 14.59

NCDEX CHANA 3060 4.33

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2436.5 3.84

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 669.8 1.35

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2993 1.29

NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1357 1.57

NCDEX GUR 1055.5 2.18

NCDEX POTATO 375 -7.32

NCDEX KAPAS 660 0.46

NCDEX WHEAT 1206 -0.20

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1098.2 -1.98

NCDEX CARDAMOM 880 4.45

CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

GUARSEED 19-AUG-11 4678 14.21

JEERA 19-AUG-11 16743 8.50

GUARGUM 19-AUG-11 14754 14.59

CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

MENTHA OIL 30-JULY-11 1098.2 -1.98

WHEAT 19-AUG-11 1206 -0.20

POTATO 19-AUG-11 375 -7.32

Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA (AUG) 19831.00 18045.00 17394.00 16259.00 15608.00 14473.00 12687.00

PEPPER (AUG) 33249.33 31211.33 30425.67 29173.33 28387.67 27135.33 25097.33

TURMERIC (AUG) 8128.33 7697.33 7543.67 7266.33 7112.67 6835.33 6404.33

GUARSEED (AUG) 5629.67 5058.67 4868.33 4487.67 4297.33 3916.67 3345.67

GUARSGUM (AUG) 17992.33 16049.33 15401.67 14106.33 13458.67 12163.33 10220.33

CHANA (AUG) 3340.67 3174.67 3117.33 3008.67 2951.33 2842.67 2676.67

SOYBEAN (AUG) 2673.83 2534.83 2485.67 2395.83 2346.67 2256.83 2117.83

REFINED SOYA OIL (AUG) 699.75 682.10 675.95 664.45 658.30 646.80 629.15

MUSTARD (AUG) 3130.33 3054.33 3023.67 2978.33 2947.67 2902.33 2826.33

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (AUG) 1441.00 1395.00 1376.00 1349.00 1330.00 1303.00 1257.00

GUR (SEPT) 1127.83 1089.83 1072.67 1051.83 1034.67 1013.83 975.83

POTATO (AUG) 451.23 418.13 396.57 385.03 363.47 351.93 318.83

KAPAS (APR 2012) 707.20 684.40 672.20 661.60 649.40 638.80 616.00

MENTHA OIL (JULY) 1245.27 1176.67 1137.43 1108.07 1068.83 1039.47 970.87

CARDAMOM (AUG) 965.37 918.87 899.43 872.37 852.93 825.87 779.37

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Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Agri Watch


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agri commodity reports for the week (25th - 29th july '11)

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