agri commodity reports for the week (25th - 29th april '11)
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8/7/2019 Agri Commodity Reports for the Week (25th - 29th April '11)
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AGRI MA
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25th Apr - 30th Apr 2011
W e e k l y R e p o r t
AG RI MA RK ETAGRI MARKET O I L A N D O I L S E E D S S O A R S O N G L O B A L C U E S
Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed
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Daily
Chart
JEERA (MAY)JEERA WEAKENS ON REDUCED OFF TAKES W e e k l y R e p o r t
Spot prices of Jeera as well as futures continued to
trade lower and settled O.26% and 0.67% lower
last week owing to reduced off takes by the local
stockists. There are reports of fresh overseas
enquires for Jeera. This is likely to provide support to
the prices. Arrivals in the domestic will also start to
decline gradually due to ending season. Arrivals in
the domestic mandi stood at 22,000 bags, 2000
bags higher as compared to Tuesday whereas off
takes remained steady around 20,000 bags.
Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in
2011 is expected to be around 21 lakh bags and 7-8
lakh bags in Rajasthan. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs).
(Source: spot market traders). Fresh crop arrivals
from the other major producers Syria and Turkey areslated to commence from May- June. These
countries are currently reported to have low carry
over stock and are awaiting arrivals from the new
crop. Their prices of Jeera are being offered at higher
levels than the Indian origin. Syrian Jeera is being
offered in the international market at $3,400/tonne,
Turkey around $3,350/tonne whereas Indian Jeera is
being offered around $3,150/tonne. Production of
Jeera in Syria and Turkey was around 20,000 tonnes
and 15,000 tonnes respectively in 2010. Jeera prices
in the intraday will trade sideways to up on account
of improved buying by the market participants and
expected demand from the overseas buyers. In
medium to long term (April onwards), Jeera prices
will depend on the demand from the overseas anddomestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the
sowing progress in Syria and Turkey the other major
producers of Jeera in the long term (April end
onwards).
Last week Jeera did our target of 14650
below the level of 15050, Jeera continued
its bearish trend last week and took
support from its important level of 14450.
For the next week Jeera has resistance
at15725 and support at 14430.
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
should use the strategy of sell on higher
levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
below the level of 14430 then we can
expect the level of 13950, and if it sustains
above 15725 then we can see the level of
16100.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Fresh buying Poor domestic demand
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
16877
15972
15402
15067
14497
14162
13257
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25th Apr - 29th Apr 2011
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Daily
Chart
GUARSEED (MAY)GUARSEED FALLS ON WEAK EXPORT DEMAND
Guarseed and Guar gum futures ended 2.95% and
3.08% lower on expectation that monsoon this
season would be good. IMD normally release two
operational monsoon forecast, first in April and then
in June. In the current crop season, export demand
was the only factor which had drived Guar prices
higher despite bumper crop. However, from April
onwards monsoon would also play a significant role
in determining the trend in Guar prices. Exports
which were hit drastically lower during the last 2
years, had reached record levels in the financial year
ending March 2011. According to Agriculture and
Processed Food Products Export Development
Authority (APEDAJ), Guar gum exports during April-
December 2010 surged by 82% and stood at
2,79,197 tonnes. Arrivals of Guar in the domestic
mandis on an average are around 10 thousand bags
as compared to 75 thousand bags the previous
week. According to the Rajasthan farm
Department, Guar seed output in Rajasthan in the
current season is estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The
forecasted Indian output this year is much higher
than the 4.5 lakh tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10
lakh bags in 2008-09. India is the largest Guar
producing country in the world contributing 80% in
total supplies followed by Pakistan with 10% share
in world production. If the IMD forecasts below
normal monsoon prices are bound to gain sharply in
the coming weeks and vice-a versa. In the medium
term (1month, prices would be dependent on the
overseas demand as well as on the monsoon
forecast. Prices are expected to trade in the range of
Rs. 2900-3070 per qtl levels in the medium term.
Last week Guarseed opened down but we
saw good buying coming at lower levels in
the remaining week and market even
broke its important resistance of 3040 and
sustained above it. For the next week
Guarseed has resistance at 3070 and
support at 2910.
For next week in Guar seed traders should
go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
Guar seed sustains above the level of 3070
we can see the level of 3140, and below
2910 it can touch the level of 2860.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Weak export demand Monsoon forecast
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
3384
3187
3116
2990
2919
2793
2596
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Daily
Chart
SOYABEAN (MAY)SOYBEAN SOARS ON GLOBAL CUES
The positive trend in Soybean futures market was
extended last week on extended short covering.
Fresh buying was also seen from speculators as the
prices fell sharply in previous week. After projection
of normal monsoon, traders bought futures
anticipating revival in demand for Soybean for
seeding purpose. Spot markets witnessed moderate
buying activity from few crushers. Moreover,
positive trend in international market on short
covering lent support to the Indian market. The
Soybean futures are projected to advance its gains
on continued buying interest supported by firm
international market. Domestic traders and
investors are likely to buy Soybean futures on
expectation of revival in demand for the produce. Arecent fall in the prices is attracting traders and
investors to buy Soybean futures. Limited supply of
the produce at major spot markets also lent support
to the futures market. Spot markets are witnessing
moderate buying activity from stockists and few
crushers. Steady demand for Soy meal in local
market is likely to render support to the Soybean
market. Market talk of meal export enquiry from
China is likely to lend support to the market. Indian
market is likely to move in line with firm
international market. CBOT Soybean futures ended
higher amid tight US ending stock. Weakness in
dollar lent support to the CBOT Soy market.
Last week Soybean was facing strong
support at 2400 levels and price was not
sustaining at lower levels and we saw
good buying coming in the remaining
week. For the next week Soybean has
resistance at 2470 and support at 2390.
Soybean is moving in a consolidation
phase on charts and one should look for
buying opportunities at lower levels, if
Soybean sustains above the level of 2470
we can see the level of 2510, and on the
downside if it sustains below the level of
2390 we can see Soybean at 2350 level.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Short covering Firm international market
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
2551
2490
2465
2430
2405
2369
2309
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Daily
Chart
CHANA (MAY)CHANA TUMBLES ON FRESH ARRIVALS
Increased fresh arrivals of Chana in the domesticmandi continued to pressurize Chana futures last
week. Forecast of monsoon to be normal this seasonby Indian Metrological Department released on 19thApril 2011 would be favorable for Kharif Pulses.Harvesting is at its peak in Rajasthan, the secondlargest Chana producing state in India after MP.According to the Third Advance Estimates on crop
released on Wednesday 6February, 2011 byagriculture ministry, Chana output is estimated at7.38 million tonnes (mt), compared to 7.48 mt in theprevious year and 7.37 million tonnes estimated inthe previous advance estimates. The output ofpulses, as a whole is forecasted to increase 17.9% to
17.29 million tonnes compared to 14.66 milliontonnes in the previous year and 16.51 million tonnesestimated in the second advance estimates.Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the currentcrop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million tonnesand 17.29 million tonnes respectively. Planning
Commission has estimated that the demand forpulses in the country during the period 2011-12 is19.11 million tonne. Fresh arrivals of Chana fromRajasthan stood around 80,000 bags as comparedto 40,000 bags the previous week. Globally,
Canadian Chickpeas output is expected to increaseduring 2010-11 to 1.28 lakh tonnes compared to0.76 lakh tonnes the previous year. Chana prices inthe intraday are expected to decline on account ofincrease in fresh arrivals in the domestic mandi
particularly from Rajasthan. In the short term, weexpect May contract to trade in the range of Rs.2300 2450 per qtl levels.
Chana was in a downtrend for most part of
the previous week and market was not
able to sustain at higher levels. Price is
facing stiff resistance at 2360 level and
market sustained below it for the whole
week. For the next week Chana has
resistance at 2410 and support at 2300.
Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one
should go for selling at higher levels
strategy in it. For the coming week if
Chana sustains below 2300 level we can
see it at 2260 and above 2410 we can
expect the level of 2445.
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Fresh arrivals Selling pressure
REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
MARKET OVERVIEW
STRATEGY
Script Levels
R3
R2
R1
PP
S1
S2
S3
2468
2406
2371
2344
2309
2282
2220
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W e e k l y R e p o r t25th Apr - 29th Apr 2011
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WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE
SymbolExch-ange
ExpiryDate
CommodityName
Price UnitPrevious
CloseOpen LowHigh Close
Qty.Traded
NetOpen
Interest
WeeklyTurnOver
(Rs. in Lakhs)*
* Turnover Till Friday
NCDEXJEERAUNJHA 20-MAY-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15544 15590 1473215637 14832 45051 -712 18615 58,273.48
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8966 8900 86109040 8844 23945 -122 15195 18,885.24
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2974 2971 28643061 3045 673150 71 182630 157,431.51
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8509 8450 82628722 8639 59680 14880130 43,183.73
CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2383 2380 23182380 2336 431090 -47 159100 89,949.58
SoybeanSYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 RS/QUINTAL 2419 2413 2394.52455 2441 283820 22 193950 61,375.16
SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 613.45 613.3 608.9630.5 629.1 557850 15.65 113920 313,449.27
RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2716 2711 26822749 2743 455630 27 158980 104,178.83
COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1127 1120 11011159 1152 277870 25 95960 26,517.45
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 962 966 963.5997 989.5 25020 27.5 12010 4,795.53
POTATO NCDEX Potato RS/QUINTAL 514.9 515 501518.6 511.4 37740 -3.5 26055 1,715.20
KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1039.7 1025 958.31029 993.1 4905 -46.6 1109 8,407.01
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1189.8 1191.8 11871205 1192 27040 2.2 30070 2,925.38
MENTHA OIL MCX 30-APR-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1046.3 1050.7 10431104 1087.9 2902 41.6 1021 10870.74CARDAMOM MCX 14- MAY-11 Cardamom RS/KG 1130.2 1126.1 10581128.5 1062.4 3842 -67.8 1647 4133.19
PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 26930 26990 2591027975 27938 44727 1008 10842 93,238.80
Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change
NCDEX JEERA 14832 -4.58
NCDEX PEPPER 27938 3.74
NCDEX TURMERIC 8844 -1.36
NCDEX GUARSEED 3045 2.39
NCDEX GUARGUM 8639 1.53
NCDEX CHANA 2336 -1.97
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2441 0.91
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 629.1 2.55
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2743 0.99
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1152 2.22
NCDEX GUR 1050.5 6.38
NCDEX POTATO 511.4 -0.68
NCDEX KAPAS 993.1 -4.48
NCDEX WHEAT 1192 0.18
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1087.9 3.98
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1062.4 -6.00
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20-MAY-11
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Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
Weekly Gainers
GUR 20-JUL-11 1050.5 6.38
MENTHA OIL 30-APR-11 1087.9 3.98
Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
CARDAMOM 14- MAY-11 1062.4 -6.00
KAPAS 29-APR-11 993.1 -4.48
JEERA 20-MAY-11 14832 -4.58
JEERA (MAY) 16877.00 15972.00 15967.00 15067.00 14497.00 14162.00 13257.00
PEPPER (MAY) 31404.33 29339.33 28638.67 27274.33 26573.67 25209.33 23144.33
TURMERIC (MAY) 9691.33 9261.33 9052.67 8831.33 8622.67 8401.33 7971.33
GUARSEED (MAY) 3384.00 3187.00 3116.00 2990.00 2919.00 2793.00 2596.00
GUARSGUM (MAY) 9461.00 9001.00 8820.00 8541.00 8360.00 8081.00 7621.00
CHANA (MAY) 2468.67 2406.67 2371.33 2344.67 2309.33 2282.67 2220.67
SOYBEAN (MAY) 2551.17 2490.67 2465.83 2430.17 2405.33 2369.67 2309.17
REFINED SOYA OIL (MAY) 666.03 644.43 636.77 622.83 615.17 601.23 579.63
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (MAY) 1253.33 1195.33 1173.67 1137.33 1115.67 1079.33 1021.33
GUR (JUL) 1216.67 1125.17 1087.83 1033.67 996.33 942.17 850.67
POTATO (MAY) 545.53 527.93 519.67 510.33 502.07 492.73 475.13
KAPAS (APR) 1134.87 1064.17 1028.63 993.47 957.93 922.77 852.07
MENTHA OIL (APR) 1200.30 1139.30 1113.60 1078.30 1052.60 1017.30 956.30
CARDAMOM (MAY) 1223.97 1153.47 1107.93 1082.97 1037.43 1012.47 941.97
WE EKLY MA RKET UP DATE
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PEPPER 20-MAY-11 27938 3.74
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MUSTARD (MAY) 2858.67 2791.67 2767.33 2724.67 2700.33 2657.67 2590.67