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Modeling update

AgendaProject overview (brief)Modeling update (preliminary results)Next stepsIntegration pathways Modeling status update: 11/13/2012

Land-cover, meteorology, and desert dustExplore hydrologic impacts and sensitivitieswww.nsf.orgSnow Water Equivalent (SWE)Discharge (Q) magnitude and timingDomain: catchments with range of MPB and dust impacts; varying hydro-climatology, Distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM)

Q (m3/s)MonthBoulder Cr.Fish Cr.Snake R.Uncompaghre R.Painter et al., 2010Current modeling statusSnake R. set-up complete other (3) river basins nearly readyLocal precip./temperature still open issues; Spatial improvements in cold-season precip. from Molotch et al. (SWE recon.).**Preliminary** sensitivities completeCalibrations hinge upon resolving precip./temperature issues (examining individual years)

Modeling systemRelevant Details:

Dust-on-snow: Observation-based dust loading/snow albedo scenarios

MPB: Satellite derived LAI-change

MPB: Vegetation classification

100 m spatial resolution

-Courtesy Jeff DeemsShorten description explain where our sensitivities come in4Example: Snake R.Flows into Dillon Reservoir Denver WaterChanges in leaf-area index (LAI) used to characterize beetle killExplore end-points, 2000 - 2011

Snake R.Max. LAI: 2003Max. LAI: 2006-Courtesy Jeff Deems-Courtesy Brian Buma500m MODIS satellite imagery (2002-2011)

MPB Scenario: Apply maximum MPB impact to Evergreen areas, reducing canopy LAIDust scenarios: Alter modeled snow albedos based on observed dust impacts.Orient the slide, i70, loveland pass, Scenario1, 2, 3, and albedo decay curves; state that lodgepole are *majority*, but not; speak more aboutModerate dust, observations in the san juans 2005-2008, which were in fact moderate dust years chris landry at the centre for snow and avalanche studies, observations were made in senator beck basin near red mountain pass.Extreme dust, same, but from 2009, 2010 which were extremely heavy dust y7earLow dust taken from observations in europe, switzerland station, *this is not a nodust scnario, it is just low dust*Low and moderate dust were the same that were in the PNAS paper, Painter, Deems, 20105Preliminary results

Model Results: Snake R.SWE (m)PRISMSWE 1 Apr., 2005Considerable increase in spatial detail when using Molotch et al. SWE reconstruction to distribute winter precip (versus PRISM).SWE (m)SWE 1 Apr., 2005Molotch et al. SWE recon. Cold season precip distribution

Model Results: Snake R.SWE (m)CONTROL: Moderate dust, no beetle impactAvg. SWE 1 Apr.MPB leads to higher accumulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)Considerable variation between wet and dry years (not shown)SWE change (m)Difference MapLessMoreSWE (m)Scenario: Maximum MPB impactAvg. SWE 1 Apr.Residual

Relative model sensitivitiesLowModerateExtremeWY2006SWE (mm)NoneFull MPBMonthDust enhances snowmeltOpposing effect of MPB on SWE, non-uniform, asynchronous

Low & Full MPBModerateExtreme & Full MPBMonthMonthRelative dust impactsRelative MPB impactsCombined MPB & DustPhoto: Chris Landry

www.denverpost.orgWY2006WY2006Add middle plot MD, add ED.max.MPB and add low dust case - ACRE FEET!!!! Venture possible explanations of a realistic case9

Preliminary Model Streamflow Results

Averaged 2000-2011 water yearsLowModerateExtremeDischarge @ Montezuma (m3/s)Relative dust impactsRelative MPB impactsNoneFull MPBChanges in melt rate control peak runoff timing and magnitude (dust)MPB impacts also affect warm-season flow (reduced evapotranspiration)MonthWater Yield (ac-ft/year)

Low & Full MPBModerateExtreme & Full MPBCombined MPB & DustMonthMonthAveraged 2000-2011 water yearsAveraged 2000-2011 water years

Water Yield (ac-ft/year)Water Yield (ac-ft/year)

+1.8%+1.1%+9.1%+11.6%+9.9%Add center plot10Preliminary ConclusionsDust-on-snow enhances snowmelt, causing earlier peak streamflowMPB leads to higher SWE accumulationModel sensitivities from Snake R. show reduction of canopy cover increases water yield on the order of 10%Work in progress compare other 3 basin responses, incorporate satellite-based MPB propagation patterns, greater spatial extentsPotential points of integration with CBRFC: Adjust melt factors?Adjust ET demand?

1) dust also reduces yield, but has a dramatic effect on flow timing; MPB increases yield order 10%, but has little impact on the timing of snowmelt flows2) the dust scenarios represent a range of impacts based on actual, observed conditions; the max MPB scenario is not necessarily realistic from a timing and extent of infestation standpoint, and as such we might expect actual flow increases to be a good bit lower than the 10% sensitivity...11


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