STEPS Centre ‘Pathways Methods’

helping appreciate alternative pathways

Andy StirlingSPRU & STEPS Centre

University of Sussex

presentation to conference session on Nexus Methods ESRC Methods Festival

University of Bath5th July 2016

www.steps-centre.org/www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/www.multicriteriamapping.com www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513

Conventional Risk-Based Politicsincumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space

specific tech technological ‘lock-in’

risk regulation

‘closed down’ politics

risk

Opt

ions single ‘best’ / ‘optimal’ /

most ‘legitimate’ decisions

risk

presumed benefits case-by-case focus narrow remits aggregated attention regulatory capture technocratic procedures

narrow assessment

knowledge economy

$IIIIII

€

Conventional Innovation Policyincumbent ‘sound science’ and ‘pro-innovation’ control political space

possible paths

multiple feasible

Innovation trajectories

choice discourse

risk

optio

ns

pers

pect

ive

ss

plural conditional recommendations

dissensus processessceptical politics

catalyse, not suppress, democracy

risk

neglected issues excluded values alternative pathways ignored uncertainties marginalised interests precautionary principle

Sustainability

innovation democracy

“letting go”

diversity, discontinuity, experiment

risk

“broadening out” “opening up”

Opening Up Space for More Democratic Struggle

possible paths

multiple feasible

Innovation trajectories

choice discourse

risk

optio

ns

pers

pect

ive

ss

riskSustainability

innovation democracy

risk

“broadening out”

“opening up”

METHODS catalyse, provoke & help enable more open

political space

Opening Up Space for More Democratic Struggle

Help Appreciate Alternative Pathways

Overall Aims

Help Appreciate Alternative Pathways

Overall Aims

Method alone can’t do whole job: also involves encompassing process

Help Appreciate Alternative Pathways

Method underpins both understanding and judgement; knowledge and action

Method alone can’t do whole job: also involves encompassing process

Overall Aims

Help Appreciate Alternative Pathways

Method underpins both understanding and judgement; knowledge and action

Critical focus on alternatives: reflecting and favouring marginal interests

Method alone can’t do whole job: also involves encompassing process

Overall Aims

STEPS Methodology:

An ordered repertoire of conditionally-appropriate methods

Help Appreciate Alternative Pathways

Method underpins both understanding and judgement; knowledge and action

Critical focus on alternatives: reflecting and favouring marginal interests

Repertoires: sensitive to context, positioning and plural views and pathways

Method alone can’t do whole job: also involves encompassing process

Overall Aims

Intervention histories / futures - narratives, interventions, futures

Innovation histories - deep history, broad of innovation

Deliberative / Multicriteria mapping - values, knowledges, pathways

Open Space Technology - diversity, passion, responsibility

Participatory Impact Pathways Analysis - planning, monitoring, impacts

Participatory Rural Appraisal - empowering marginal voices

Participatory Scenarios - alternative views of drivers of change

Photovoice - participants is the researcher

Q Method - makes contrasting discourses visible

Scientometric Mapping - makes research more accountable

Sensitivity Analysis - destabilises technocratic modelling

Sociotechnical Imaginaries - pluralises foundations for politics

System Histories - grounded contrasts in system frames

Some Indicative Examples

ENGAGE ACTORS

help appreciate alternative pathwaysBASIC STEPS

EXPLORE NARRATIVES

CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS

REVEAL STRATEGIES

ENGAGE ACTORS

help appreciate alternative pathwaysBASIC STEPS

EXPLORE NARRATIVES

CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS

REVEAL STRATEGIES

A: ENGAGE ACTORS - together:1: review relevant histories2: analyse associated networks 3: snowball salient interests4: prioritise most marginal5: examine power relations6: identify basic pathway visions 7: be alert for hidden plurality8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Looking at alternative pathways for agricultural livelihoods around Sakai and

Mmbasu in East & West Provinces of KenyaInvolving STEPs with

African Centre for Technology Studies

Centre for African Bio-Entrepreneurship

Tegemeo Institute, Egerton Universityimages and results courtesy of John Thompson, et al, STEPS

A: ENGAGE ACTORS - together:1: review relevant histories2: analyse associated networks 3: snowball salient interests4: prioritise most marginal5: examine power relations6: identify basic pathway visions 7: be alert for hidden plurality8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCEA: ENGAGE ACTORS - together:1: review relevant histories2: analyse associated networks 3: snowball salient interests4: prioritise most marginal5: examine power relations6: identify basic pathway visions 7: be alert for hidden plurality8: seek critical feedback

Scoping interviewsHistoric panel data

Trends analysis Rapid rural appraisals

Focus groupsKey informant

interviews

Disaggregate gender, wealth, productivity Focus on

5 “low potential” villages (Sakai)also 3 “high potential” villages (Mmbasu)

B: EXPLORE NARRATIVES1: review relevant histories2: elicit notions of systems3: explore related framings4: address Sustainability values5: scope possible pathways6: review aspects of incertitude7: differentiate perspectives8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCEExplore framings: particularly ideas about ‘resilience’, ‘innovation’ and ‘pathways‘ Test concepts in relation to environmental change and maize in Kenya

B: EXPLORE NARRATIVES1: review relevant histories2: elicit notions of systems3: explore related framings4: address Sustainability values5: scope possible pathways6: review aspects of incertitude7: differentiate perspectives8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

B: EXPLORE NARRATIVES1: review relevant histories2: elicit notions of systems3: explore related framings4: address Sustainability values5: scope possible pathways6: review aspects of incertitude7: differentiate perspectives8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Low Maize High Maize

Low-ExternalInput

High-ExternalInput

C CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS:1: review relevant histories2: explore challenges/opportunities3: scrutinise likely shocks/stresses4: look at actors’ strength/weakness5: examine decision/branch points6: identify winners/losers7: attend to issues of power/politics 8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Alternative dryland staples for subsistence

Alternative dryland staples for market

Local improvement of local maizeAssisted seed multiplication of maize

Assisted seed multiplication of alternative dryland staples

Individual high-value crop commercialization

Group-based high-value crop commercialization

Commercial delivery of new DT maize varieties

Public delivery of new DT maize varieties

C CHARACTERISE DYNAMICS:1: review relevant histories2: explore challenges/opportunities3: scrutinise likely shocks/stresses4: look at actors’ strength/weakness5: examine decision/branch points6: identify winners/losers7: attend to issues of power/politics 8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

pathways served as starting point for opening up the discussion with farmers, scientists and policy makers on:

Diversity of pathways in and out of maizeRelevant criteria for choosing one pathway over another

Alternative visions of the future and institutional support arrangements

REVEAL STRATEGIES

D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS1: review relevant histories2: confirm key protagonists3: explore forms of agency4: define possible interventions 5: identify coping strategies6: examine possible responses7: establish accountabilities8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Quantitative and qualitative data from multicriteria mapping

Interviews and group discussions prompted by this process

REVEAL STRATEGIES

D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS1: review relevant histories2: confirm key protagonists3: explore forms of agency4: define possible interventions 5: identify coping strategies6: examine possible responses7: establish accountabilities8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

REVEAL STRATEGIES

D: REVEAL POLITICAL ACTIONS1: review relevant histories2: confirm key protagonists3: explore forms of agency4: define possible interventions 5: identify coping strategies6: examine possible responses7: establish accountabilities8: seek critical feedback

KENYA MAIZE RESILIENCE

Pathways Out of Maize: Orphans or Siblings?Performance rankings for different groups of stakeholders shows a

surprising amount of optimism about alternative dryland staple crops, especially under a set of stress tolerance criteria

Pathways in Maize: Sakai farmer performance rankings show a preference for local

maize, not new maize

broadening out

opening up

STEPS Methodology A framework for balancing power and making space for political action

to help build alternative pathways