after 2020: opportunities and challenges for all independent energy producers annual meeting...
TRANSCRIPT
After 2020: Opportunities and Challenges for All
Independent Energy Producers Annual MeetingSeptember 26, 2013
Nancy E. Ryan
Director of Policy and Strategy, E3
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California Policymakers are Starting to Look Beyond 2020
CPUC is interested in evaluating electricity sector GHG reduction options and costs in 2030
CARB 2013 Update to AB 32 Scoping Plan
• Progress on 2020 GHG goals
• Possibly a 2030 target
• Integrate air quality and climate policy
CEC’s 2013 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR)
• “Evaluation of electricity system needs in 2030” workshop & modeling
California legislators:
• Proposed bill for 51% RPS by 2030 surfaced
• Quirk bill on Road to 2050
Science Paper on 2050 Pathways:Framework for Setting 2030 Goals
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Low Carbon Path Beyond 2020
Source: “The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity,” Williams et al, Science (2012)
E3 Examining Potential Interim Targets and Pathways to Reach Them
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100
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1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050
Mill
ion
met
ric to
nnes
CO
2e
2020 Goal 425 MMT
2050 Goal85 MMT
Business as usual projection
Transportation
Electricity
Industry
2030 Straight Line Path315 MMTTarget Range
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6Williams et al, 2012
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600
Electrification & Energy Efficiency
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Energy Efficiency
Electrification
272
452
152
563PV Roofs
2010Electric Demand
2050BaselineElectricDemand
BuildingEE
IndustrialAg &
Other EE
BuildingElect.
IndustrialAg & OtherElect.
PV Roofs
2050Electric
Demand net of EE/PV
TransportEVs
2050Decarb.EelctricDemand
Williams et al, 2012, SOM
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California is Clearly Heading Down the Renewable Electricity Pathway
State law prohibits construction of new nuclear facilities until the federal government has designated a permanent nuclear waste repository
• San Onofre Generating Station has closed permanently
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has not developed as quickly as hoped
• No commercial projects in service
• Proposed projects and are struggling to make it to the finish line due to cost overruns, political opposition, low gas prices
Should California invest in preserving other options?
Renewable Resource Costs Continue to Decline
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Source: “Tracking the Sun VI” Barbose et al, LBNL, 2013
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Integration Challenges are Magnified Above 33%
Higher amounts of solar leads to too much generation vs. too little
demand in middle of day
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What does all of this mean for me?
Thank You!Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3)
101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600
San Francisco, CA 94104
Tel 415-391-5100
Web http://www.ethree.com
Nancy E. Ryan, Director of Policy and Strategy (nancy
@ethree.com)