afghanistan time to move to sustainable jobs international labour organisation afghanistan may 2012
TRANSCRIPT
AfghanistanTime to move to Sustainable
Jobs
International Labour OrganisationAfghanistanMay 2012
One programme 3 tracks for post conflict employment creation and reintegration
Su
sta
inab
le E
mp
loym
en
t cre
atio
n
an
d D
ecen
t Work
Pre
-Peace A
ccord
P
lan
nin
g
Reintegration Transition
Hosting, Local Communities
Nation Wide
Stabilization
Target groups
Peace Building Process
PeaceNegotiations
Peace AgreementPre-assessments
Pre
-Peace A
ccord
P
lan
nin
g
Track A – Stabilizing income generation & emergency EmploymentTrack B – Local Economic recovery for employment opportunities & reintegrationTrack C - Sustainable Employment creation and Decent Work
Demographic dividend or time bomb?
Population pyramid for Afghanistan, 2010 (unit: thousand)
Data Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm, accessed on 12 April 2012.
0-14 = 49%
Overview of Afghanistan labour market
Static Picture as of 2008 12.06 million working-age population 8.03 million in labour force (66.6% LF participation
rate) 823,000 unemployed (7.1% unemployment rate) 3.87 million underemployed (48.2% underemployment
rate) 6.18 million in vulnerable employment (77.0% of LF) Dynamic Picture Over 400,000 Afghans joining the labour force
/yr.
Will Afghanistan produce sufficient number of decent
jobs?
What may be happening in the market (apart from the expected impact of transition)
Manufacturing base being replaced by cheap imports
More immigrants coming to Afghanistan
Investors refraining from investment
Currencies of major trade partners depreciate
TJS -67%
IRR -53%PKR -45%
TRY -11%
While AFN FOREXremains stable (+1.4%)
Compared to 2002, the currencies depreciated against USD by:
Data Source) World Development Indicators & Global Development Finance database
AFN
CHY
INR
IRR
KZT
PKR
RUBRUB
TRY
TJ S
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Trade data remain approximate …
Source) UN COMTRADE
2010 Export
record by Afghanist
an
2010 Import
record by partner
co
2010 Export
record by partner
co
2010 Import
record by Afghanist
an
Pakistan 151,343 138,375 Uzbekistan 1,087,927 1,087,927
India 65,358 107,537 China 175,265 703,845
Turkey 34,775 5,098 Pakistan 1,684,666 597,503
Iran 31,730 12,941 Japan 96,877 494,369
Russia 29,585 22,000 Germany 356,533 422,290
Probable smuggling gaps with top five export and import partner countries
* Uzbekistan's export figure is the mirror data reported by Afghanistan
Unit : US Dollar thousand
But reported imports from Iran, Pakistan & Turkey jumped significantly
Source) UN COMTRADE
1,315,722
12,941
- 200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd Iran's Exports toAfghanistanIran's Imports fromAfghanistanLinear (Iran's Exportsto Afghanistan)
1,684,666
138,3750
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd
Pakistan's Exportsto AfghanistanPakistan's Importsfrom Afghanistan
275,943
4,7950
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd
Turkey's Exportsto AfghanistanTurkey's Importsfrom Afghanistan
Trade withIran
Trade withPakistan
Trade withTurkey
Even imports from China, India & Russia sky-rocketed
Source) UN COMTRADE
230,057
4,3640
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd
China's Exportsto AfghanistanChina's Importsfrom Afghanistan
550,000
22,0000
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd
Russia's Exports toAfghanistanRussia's Importsfrom Afghanistan
391,610
107,537
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
olla
r th
ousa
nd
India's Exportsto AfghanistanIndia's Importsfrom Afghanistan
Trade withChina
Trade withIndia
Trade withRussia
Increasing imports of competing products – a source of concern
Source) UN COMTRADE
- 50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
ollar
Thousand
Carpets and other textilefloor coverings
Salt, sulphur, earth,stone, plaster, lime andcementAnimal,vegetable fats andoils, cleavage products,etcEdible fruit, nuts, peel ofcitrus fruit, melons
Wool, animal hair,horsehair yarn and fabricthereofStone, plaster, cement,asbestos, mica, etcarticlesEdible vegetables andcertain roots and tubersPoly. (Carpets and othertextile floor coverings)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
US D
ollar
Thousand
Edible fruit, nuts, peelof citrus fruit, melons
Edible vegetables andcertain roots andtubersDairy products, eggs,honey, edible animalproduct nesWood and articles ofwood, wood charcoal
Vegetable, fruit, nut,etc food preparations
Competing imports from Iran
Competing imports from Pakistan
Are the policy responses right?
Important structural impediments are addressed in NPPs, butno overarching strategy on competitiveness and job creation
Analyses of sectoral strategies may be inaccurate or outdated.
PDPs favor Soviet type of investment plans without serious considerationof competitiveness, feasibility and private sector-led investment
Impact of community livelihood interventions dubious
Recommendations Towards more & better jobs
Re-evaluate competitiveness of strategic sectors and Afghan labour in a regional trade environment
Track B: Revisit strategies on local economic recovery
for employment opportunities and
reintegration
Track C: Revisit consistency of
national development policies towards sustainable job
creation and decent work
Thank you for your attention!
Any questions of clarification?