a journey through the victorian labour market€¦ · dairy product manufacturing fruit and...

A journey through the Victorian labour market

Ivan Neville

Assistant Secretary

Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

Regional Victoria is older and haslower population growth

May 2019

13.6

16.9

7.2

25.2

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Increase in the civillian population over thelast five years (%)

Proportion of the population aged 65+ (%)

Per

cen

t (%

)

Greater Melbourne Rest of Victoria

Age group share of total population (%)12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0

15 - 19

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 - 54

55 - 59

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 - 84

85+

Age group share of total population (%)

Regional Victoria Greater Melbourne

199420192044

Regional Victoria’s age problem is not going awayProjected population age distribution in Victoria

Labour market conditions in Victoria remain strongKey indicators, year to June 2019

• Employment – up by 126,500 (or 3.9 per cent), above the decade annual average

growth rate of 2.5 per cent

• Full-time employment – up by 71,900 (or 3.2 per cent)

• Part-time employment – up by 54,500 (or 5.2 per cent)

• Unemployment rate – 4.8 per cent, down from 5.5 per cent a year ago

• Participation rate – 66.1 per cent, up by 0.4 percentage points over the year

Labour market conditions in Melbourne have been particularly strong

Over the year to June 2019:• Employment up by 100,200 (or 4.0 per cent).• Unemployment rate down by 1.0 percentage

point to 4.7 per cent.• Participation rate up by 0.2 percentage points to

67.3 per cent.

Rest of Victoria

Over the year to June 2019• Employment up only modestly, by 10,600 (or 1.5

per cent).• Unemployment rate down by 1.0 percentage

point to 4.3 per cent.• Participation rate down by 0.6 percentage points

to 61.2 per cent.

Greater Melbourne

Disparity in unemployment rates at the LGA level

High unemployment small areas:Corio – Norlane (21.6%)Broadmeadows (18.8%)Meadow Heights (17.6%)Campbellfield – Coolaroo (15.2%)Melton (15.1%)

Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, August 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business

The structure of employment is changingChange in share of employment May-09 to May-19 (% points), main employing industries

-1.1

-2.5

2.1

-1.5

-0.4

0.6

1.0

1.5

1.4

0.0

-3.7

0.4

-0.2

0.1

1.9

0.6

0.3

2.6

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail Trade

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Public Administration and Safety

Education and Training

Health Care and Social Assistance

Greater Melbourne Regional Victoria


59,900 jobs

Industry growth in the cityEmployment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2019


56,200 jobs

Retail Trade

39,400 jobs

Construction

48,500 jobs

Wholesale Trade

700 jobs

Mining

1,600 jobs


28,000 jobs


53,600 jobs

And it’s expected to continueProjected employment growth in Greater Melbourne, five years to May 2023


38,400 jobs

Construction

36,300 jobs

Wholesale Trade

3,300 jobs

Mining

500 jobs

Public Administration and Safety

12,300 jobs

Industry growth in the regionsEmployment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2019


20,100 jobs


10,700 jobs

Construction

12,500 jobs

Retail Trade

4000 jobs


6800 jobs

Same suspects to provide future growthProjected employment growth in regional Victoria, five years to May 2023


4,600 jobs


13,900 jobs


4,300 jobs

Construction

6,200 jobs

Mining

200 jobs

Strong construction growth across all sectorsEmployment growth in Construction sectors over the five years to May 2019, Victoria

7.9

15.6

18.1

34.9

51.8%

65.8%

258.8%

22.2%

0.0% 50.0% 100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%

Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction

Residential Building Construction

Non-Residential Building Construction

Construction Services

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Construction declined by 14,700 over the year to May 2019

Construction Services declined by 15,700

The Manufacturing industryEmployment over the five years to May 2019

Victoria

100 jobs

Regional Victoria

2,100 jobs

Greater Melbourne

2,200 jobs

4-quarter averaged data

Food and Beverage ManufacturingEmployment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria

Beverage Manufacturing

Meat and Meat Product Manufacturing

Dairy Product Manufacturing

Fruit and Vegetable Processing

Other Food Product Manufacturing

4,400 jobs

3,900 jobs

3,200 jobs

2,500 jobs

5,200 jobs

25.3 per cent of Victoria’s Manufacturing industry are employed in the Food Product Manufacturing sector

Advanced ManufacturingForging the path ahead

Employment over the five years to May 2019, Victoria

Advanced Manufacturing*

2,400 jobs

*Excluding Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Part Manufacturing, which declined by 10,300.

Strong growth in:

Pharmaceutical and Medicinal Product Manufacturing (3,200)

Other Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing (1,300)

Smart industry needs smart workersIndex of online vacancies for skilled occupations

(March 2011 = 100)

Health Professionals33%

Bendigo & High Country

32%

Share of skilled vacancy growth in regional Victoria over the five years to June 2019:

Geelong & Surf Coast 25%

0

50

100

150

200


Invest in your workforceApprenticeship and Traineeship commencements and completions, Victoria

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Commencements Completions

Recruitment difficulty is increasingRecruitment difficulty in Victoria - proportion of employers, by skill level, year

25%

30%

42%

47%44%

55%

34% 36%

48%

2016 2017 2018

Lower Skilled Higher Skilled Total

Skill shortage researchProportion of skilled vacancies that were not filled, Victoria

56%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Technicians and Trades

Professions

Trade shortagesVictoria National*

● Motor Mechanics ● Automotive Electrician● Sheetmetal Trades Worker ● Aircraft Maintenance Engineer● Panelbeater ● Stonemason● Vehicle Painter ● Glazier● Bricklayer ● Wall and Floor Tiler● Carpenters and Joiners ● Baker● Plumbers ● Pastrycook● Hairdresser ● Butcher or Smallgoods Maker● Cabinetmaker ● Arborist

Regional Victoria

● Metal Fabricator

Metropolitan Victoria

● Fibrous Plasterer

Average applicant numbers have fallen in recent years, and most (86%) are regarded by

employers as unsuitable

In addition, around two thirds of qualified applicants are

regarded as unsuitableMany lack the required trade

and industry specific experience

Less than half hold a formal trade qualification

Why do trade vacancies remain unfilled in Victoria?

Why are qualified applicants unsuitable?

Why are applicants unsuitable?

Despite strong employment growth, LTU remains above pre-GFC levels

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Lon

g-te

rm u

ne

mp

loye

d (

'00

0)

Greater Melbourne Rest of Vic.

Who has been missing out?The jobactive caseload in Victoria, June 2019

87,500|44,200

2,000|3,000

9,600|1,000

9,900|2,000

7,300|5,100

13,000|6,600

32,000|3,000

24,700|12,700

24,500|13,300

29,300|16,500

Caseload Total

Indigenous

Refugee

University

Ex Offender

Mental Health

Culturally and Linguistically Diverse

People With Disability

Age 50+

Trade or TAFE


Migration has been a key contributor to employment growth in Victoria

Over the five years to June 2019:

• Persons born overseas made up 52.1 per cent of employment growth

• The proportion of total employment comprised of recent migrants up by 1.5 percentage points to an equal record high of 6.0 per cent in June 2019

Skilled migrants are not being fully utilisedProportion (%) of working age population who have a Cert III or above qualification

November 2016, Victoria

20%

13% 12%

5%

3% 4%

13%

9%11%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

OTMESC MESC Aus. Born

Pro

po

rtio

n (

%)

of

wo

rkin

g ag

e p

op

ula

tio

n w

ho

h

ave

a C

erti

fica

te II

I or

abo

ve

Not in the labour Force Unemployed Employed in lower skilled occupations

The gig economyNot as big of a problem as is speculated nor a new phenomena

6.2 6.2 6.2 6.26.5 6.5 6.4

6.7 6.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Mar

-11

No

v-1

1

Jul-

12

Mar

-13

No

v-1

3

Jul-

14

Mar

-15

No

v-1

5

Jul-

16

Mar

-17

No

v-1

7

Jul-

18

Mar

-19

Seco

nd

ary

job

s as

a %

of

tota

l fill

ed

job

s

• Secondary jobs – 982,700 in March 2019

nationally

• Secondary jobs make up less than

7 per cent of total filled jobs

• Worker’s main job accounted for 86.0 per

cent of total jobs growth over the year to

March 2019

Digital Platform Work in Australia

• Survey of 14,000 adult internet users conducted in early 2019

nationally

• Found 7.1 per cent worked through a digital platform currently

or have done so within last 12 months

–Victoria’s proportion was slightly higher, at 7.4 per cent

Source: Digital platform work in Australia: preliminary findings from a national surveyDepartment of Premier and Cabinet, State of Victoria 2019

Secondary jobs more prominent in some industriesSecondary jobs as a proportion of total filled jobs, March 2019, Australia

6.9

7.3

7.4

7.7

8.4

11.1

11.5

25.6

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0

All industries



Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Arts and Recreation Services


Administrative and Support Services

Secondary jobs as a % of total filled jobs

Unique challenges exist

Issues

• Regional areas’ ageing population

• Strong growth in industries creating skill shortages and recruitment difficulty

• Skill shortages might worsen with the significant investment in infrastructure

Solutions

• Invest in training

• Job seekers could be used to meet skill shortages with training

• Migrants’ skills need to be fully utilised

a journey through the victorian labour market€¦ · dairy product manufacturing fruit and...

Documents