affinity diagram
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Affinity Diagram. Identify Problem. Identify Objectives (values). Identify Alternatives. Choose Best Alternative. Sensitivity Analysis. More Analysis Needed. Make Recommendation. Decision Analysis Process. Decompose and Model Problem – Structure – Uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagram
Decision and Risk Analysis
Decision Analysis ProcessIdentify Problem
Identify Objectives (values)
Identify Alternatives
Decompose and Model Problem – Structure – Uncertainty – Preference
Choose Best Alternative
Sensitivity Analysis
MoreAnalysis Needed
Make Recommendation
Yes
No
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams• An Affinity Diagram is a tool that gathers large
amounts of language data (ideas, opinions, issues) and organizes them into groupings based on their natural relationships
• Affinity process is often used to group ideas generated by Brainstorming
• Method:1. State the issue to be examined in broad terms, such as an open
ended question or statement.
2. Generate and record ideas using Post-it notes. Begin sticking them on a wall or large sheet of chart paper, in no particular order, and where everyone can see them
3. Arrange the notes in related or similar groupings
4. Choose a word or phrase that captures the intent of each group and place it at the top as a category name or title
Decision and Risk Analysis
Example
Selecting courses for Summer
Decision and Risk Analysis
Brainstorming- Step 1
• Generate Ideas
Selecting courses for Summer
Decision and Risk Analysis
Display Ideas -Step 2
Time of the dayDay of the week
Cost of books
Cost of credit
Difficulty level
Professor
Selecting courses for Summer
Decision and Risk Analysis
Sort Ideas into Groups -Step 3
Time of the day
Day of the weekCost of books
Cost of credit
Difficulty level
Professor
Selecting courses for Summer
Decision and Risk Analysis
Create Headers -Step 4
Time Cost Quality
Selecting courses for Summer
Decision and Risk Analysis
Draw the final Affinity Diagram – Step 5
Selecting courses for Summer
Time of the day
Day of the week
Cost of books
Cost of credit Difficulty level
Professor
Time Cost Quality
Decision and Risk Analysis
Decision Analysis ProcessIdentify Problem
Identify Objectives (values)
Identify Alternatives
Decompose and Model Problem – Structure – Uncertainty – Preference
Choose Best Alternative
Sensitivity Analysis
MoreAnalysis Needed
Make Recommendation
Yes
No
Decision and Risk Analysis
Value Focused ThinkingChapter 6
Structuring DecisionsChapter 3Affinity Diagram
Quantitative value hierarchy model
Decision and Risk Analysis
Value Focused Thinking
Decision and Risk Analysis
Where are we going?
• Our goal is to build a “Value Function”– Quantifies the benefit that we get from implementing a decision
alternative
– Type of utility function
– Typically maps anticipated benefit to a dimensionless number (utility)
– Used for comparison purposes (which alternatives do more to give the decision make what he/she wants)
– Can be used as an objective function for optimization
• Helps overcome the things that make a decision hard to make
• First step in building a value function is to identify the DM’s values
Decision and Risk Analysis
Values
• Values – Those things that are important to a decision maker, things that they care about
• Values are fundamental to all we do
• Values should drive decisions
Decision and Risk Analysis
Identifying Values• Interact with decision makers
• Elicit feedback throughout design process or analysis
• Values are stated through objectives
• 3 Features of objectives
(1) Decision Context
(2) Object
(3) Direction of Preference
• ex. Forest products company wants to “minimize environmental impact”
(1) Decision Context - Harvesting Trees
(2) Object - Environmental Impact
(3) Direction of Preference - Minimum is best
Decision and Risk Analysis
Value Focused Thinking
Uncover hidden
objectives Creatingalternatives
Identify Decision
Opportun-ities
GuidingStrategicThinking
Inter-connectingdecisions
GuidingInformationCollection
Evaluatingalternatives
ImprovingCommun-
ication
InvolvingMultiple
DM’s
Where does thinking about values lead?
Keeney, Ralph L., Value-Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decision making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.
Decision and Risk Analysis
Ways to Identify Values-Professor Gregory Parnell, USMA
• Gold Standard: based on an approved vision, policy, strategy, planning, or doctrine document – Values have been thought about, discussed, and written down
– We use work that has already been done and approved
• Platinum Standard: based on interviews with decision-makers and stakeholders – Often difficult to get enough time with stakeholders and DMs
– Use Affinity Diagram for group settings (will discuss later)
• Silver Standard: uses data provided by stakeholder representatives – When real DMs and stakeholders are not available
– Still use Affinity Diagrams for groups
• Combined Standard: combination of the above
Decision and Risk Analysis
Process of Identifying Values1. Research potential Gold Standard documents
• Recognize that environment might have changed• Results of research must be validated with DMs
2. Interview Stakeholders and/or Decision Makers• Validate Gold Standard work• If none, elicit values directly
3. Interact with lower level representatives as necessary• Fill in the blanks• Make sure you are consistent with thoughts of DMs
4. Combine above as necessary
Note: always check regularly with the decision makers or reps!
Decision and Risk Analysis
Structuring Objectives• Initial list has “non-objectives’’
– Alternatives– Constraints– Criteria for evaluation
• Convert “non-objectives” into objectives– Means objectives– Fundamental objectives
• Why is each important?– Means Objective: similar to smaller objectives that lead
to the fundamental objective – Fundamental Objective: Main objective
Decision and Risk Analysis
Values help guide strategic thinking
Means Obj 1 Means Obj 2 Means Obj 3
FundamentalObjective
• Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making• Strategic objectives are stable over time although the means to obtain these objectives vary over time.
Decision and Risk Analysis
My professional values help guide my strategic planning
Be an internationally recognized Military OR Analyst and Professor
Be an excellent teacher& mentor
Publish important research& be in demand as consultant
Perform significantprofessional service
Fundamental Objective
Means Objectives
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example
• Scenario: The Global War on Terrorism has continued. Intelligence sources indicate that a country (Red), that is a known supporter of terrorism, is developing a Weapons capability at a facility in a populated urban area. After diplomatic discussions failed to have an impact on the leadership of Red, Blue (NATO) decides to “send a message” by an attack that will disrupt operations of the weapons facility.
• NATO Commander’s Intent: The combatant commander has decided to attack the electrical power grid to achieve the effect of disrupting the operations of the weapons facility. The commander’s intent is that the attack should be non-attributable to Blue, that the effects of the attack should be for a short duration (to preclude a long term disruption to Red’s economy), and that the attack should not result in Red civilian casualties.
• Analysis Methodology: The leader of the combatant commander’s analysis cell has decided to use Value-Focused Thinking to develop an Effect Based Operations value model for targeting course of action evaluations.
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)
• Fundamental Objective: The fundamental objective is to “develop the best COA to achieve the commander’s intent.”
• Value Model Standard. Since our research found three Gold Standard documents, we used the Combined Standards approach. The three Gold Standard documents used were:– JP 3-60, Joint Doctrine for Targeting, 7 January 2002
– JP 3-13, Joint Doctrine for Information Operations, 8 October 1998
– JP 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations Doctrine, 10 September 2001
• Data for Affinity Diagrams. Focus research on verb-object combinations that defined the targeting objectives from the Gold
Standard documents and additional research
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)
Identify Best Target
Conduct Defensive IO
Capture Target
Destroy Target
Disrupt Adversary
Delay Adversary
Neutralize Adversary
Degrade Capability
Deceive Adversary
Exploit Condition
Share Information
Access Information
Collect Information
Manipulate Information
Execute at Right Place
Execute at Right Time
Act Decisively
Prevent Fratricide
Achieve InformationSuperiority
Minimize UnintendedConsequences
Minimize Cost
Minimize Time
Minimize Risk
Maintain InformationSuperiority
Conduct Offensive IOConduct CNA
Expose Adversary DeceptionSupport Peace Operations
Disrupt WMD R&D ProgramsAffect Infrastructures
Deter War
Maximize Accuracyof Information
Maximize Timelinessof Information
Destroy C2Degrade C2
Isolate Enemy C2
Execute with Right Priority
Execute for Right Duration
Execute at Right Intensity
Minimize DuplicativeTargeting
Minimize Risk ofEscalation of Hostilities
Minimize Risk ofAdversary Reprisal
Contribute toEconomy of Force
Contribute to Offense
Execute with Simplicity
Enable Surprise
Contribute to Objective
Minimize Loss of Life
Minimize Loss of Intelligence
Minimize Diplomatic Problems
Minimize EnvironmentalProblems
Select the Right Weapon
Control Attribution
Highest Pk
Minimize Preparation Time
Minimize Execution Time
Achieve Time Certainty
JP 3-60 Additional ResearchJP 3-0 JP 3-13
Select The Right Target
Achieve Secondary Effect
Localize Geographic Extent
Maximize Functional Extent
Minimize Probabilityof Detection
Minimize Collateral Damage
Achieve Desired Duration
Achieve Desired Intensity
Achieve DesiredProportionality
Achieve DesiredReconstitution Time
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)
Identify Best TargetCapture Target
Destroy Target
Disrupt Adversary
Delay Adversary
Neutralize Adversary
Degrade Capability
Deceive Adversary
Exploit Condition
Share Information
Access Information
Collect Information
Manipulate Information
Execute at Right Place
Act Decisively
Minimize Cost
Minimize Risk
Execute with Right Priority
Execute at Right Intensity
Minimize DuplicativeTargeting
Contribute toEconomy of Force
Contribute to Offense
Execute with Simplicity
Contribute to Objective
Select Right WeaponTo Achieve Effect
Select Target(s)To Achieve Effect
Determine EffectTo Achieve Intent
Verify DesiredEffect was Achieved
Select the Right Weapon
Highest Pk
Select The Right Target
Localize Geographic Extent
Achieve Desired Intensity
Disrupt WMD R&D Programs
Affect Infrastructures
Achieve Secondary Effect
Maximize Functional Extent
Expose Adversary Deception
Support Peace Operations
Destroy C2
Degrade C2
Isolate Enemy C2
Conduct Defensive IO
Conduct Offensive IO
Conduct CNA
Achieve InformationSuperiority
Maintain InformationSuperiority
Maximize Accuracyof Information
Maximize Timelinessof Information
Prevent Fratricide
Achieve Desired Effect
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)
Deter War
Minimize Risk ofEscalation of Hostilities
Minimize Risk ofAdversary Reprisal
Minimize Loss of Life
Minimize Loss of Intelligence
Minimize Diplomatic Problems
Minimize EnvironmentalProblems
Minimize Loss of Business
Control Attribution
Minimize Preparation Time
Minimize Execution Time
Achieve Time Certainty
Minimize Probabilityof Detection
Minimize Collateral Damage
Achieve Desired DurationAchieve DesiredProportionality
Achieve DesiredReconstitution Time
Deliver for Right Duration
Deliver at the Right Time
Minimize Chance of Escalation
Minimize Collateral Damage
Control Attribution
Minimize Impact onFuture COAs
Execute at Right Time
Minimize Time
Execute for Right Duration
Enable Surprise
Minimize UnintendedConsequences
Minimize Unwanted
Effects
Achieve Time Effects
Decision and Risk Analysis
Affinity Diagrams Example (continued)
Select Right Weapon
To Achieve Effect
Identify best COA to Achieve Commander’s Objectives
Select Target(s)To Achieve Effect
MaximizeDesired Effects
Minimize Unwanted Effects
Determine EffectTo Achieve Intent
Achieve Time Requirements
Minimize Chance Of Escalation
Minimize Collateral Damage
Control Attribution
Deliver For Right Duration
Deliver At The Right Time
Verify DesiredEffect Was Achieved
Minimize Impact On Future COAs
Resulting Qualitative Value Model
Decision and Risk Analysis
In summary
Decision and Risk Analysis
General Qualitative Value Model(Value Hierarchy)
FundamentalObjective
Function 1 Function 2 Function 3
Objective 2.1 Objective 2.2 Objective 2.3
Evaluation Measure 2.2.1
Evaluation Measure 2.2.2
• There can be multiple tiers or levels so that the problem can be subdivided into small enough pieces
• At the bottom tier are the attributes or measures or metrics that are used to quantify achievement in the objectives
• Use terms most appropriate for the domain
Decision and Risk Analysis
Building a Qualitative Value Model
• Step 1: Identify the fundamental objective
• Step 2: Identify functions that provide value
• Step 3: Identify the objectives that define value
• Step 4: Identify the value measures
Decision and Risk Analysis
Overall Method We Will Employ
• Start with values (not alternatives)• Generate better alternatives based on values• Evaluate alternatives using values
This is the Value Focused Thinking (VFT) Philosophy• Multiple Objective Decision Analysis is the mathematical
technique used to implement VFT• Also called:
– Multiple Attribute Utility Theory – Multiple Attribute Value Theory – Multiple Attribute Preference Theory