“advocacy versus inquiry” gpvec november 6, 2008 clay center, ne barry dunn executive director...
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““Advocacy versus Inquiry” Advocacy versus Inquiry” GPVECGPVEC
November 6, 2008November 6, 2008Clay Center, NEClay Center, NE
Barry Dunn Barry Dunn Executive DirectorExecutive Director
King Ranch Institute of Ranch King Ranch Institute of Ranch ManagementManagement
Texas A&M KingsvilleTexas A&M Kingsville
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Examples:Examples:
Decline in “Choice” cattle caused by X, Y, Decline in “Choice” cattle caused by X, Y, and Z!and Z!
Ethanol is good energy policy!Ethanol is good energy policy! Inter-enterprise transfers should be at Inter-enterprise transfers should be at
market because of opportunity cost.market because of opportunity cost. Shouldn’t calve in the ________.Shouldn’t calve in the ________. Genomics are better than EPD’s. Genomics are better than EPD’s. Manure samples are a good predictor of diet Manure samples are a good predictor of diet
quality and can be used in determining quality and can be used in determining supplementation programsupplementation program
?? ??
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Where we see it:Where we see it:
AAdvocating Status Quo dvocating Status Quo Enterprise analysis vs. managerial accountingEnterprise analysis vs. managerial accounting Production systemsProduction systems
Advocating self interestAdvocating self interest $$ StatusStatus CareerCareer
Misuse of informationMisuse of information StupidityStupidity NegligenceNegligence Strategic Strategic
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry” Insidious problem in management!Insidious problem in management! Why:Why:
Nature of who we are:Nature of who we are: BoldBold DecisiveDecisive
Information age:Information age: Lots of it!Lots of it! Wide skill set needed to interpret.Wide skill set needed to interpret.
Reward systems value decisive leaders Reward systems value decisive leaders who can support decision with data who can support decision with data
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #1Story #1
Factors that affect % of Factors that affect % of choice cattle in the market choice cattle in the market
place.place.
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #1Problem #1
Inadequate understanding of Inadequate understanding of statistics!statistics!
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #2 Story #2
I know the best time to calve I know the best time to calve the cows!the cows!
Actual Results for King Ranch Calving Season
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Lowest
Net Income, $
? ? ?
Actual Results for King Ranch Calving Season
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income, $
Should be Lowest
Should be High
Should be Medium
Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income,$ Lowest High + High
Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season
Payne et al, 2008
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest High Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income,$ Lowest High + High
Investment,$ Highest High Very Low
Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season
Payne et al, 2008
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest High Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income,$ Lowest High + High
Investment,$ Highest High Very Low
ROI Lowest High High +
Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season
Payne et al, 2008
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income,$ Lowest High High
Variability NI High High Very Low
Investment,$ Highest High Very Low
Variability Invt.
Very High High Very Low
ROI Lowest High Highest
Variability, ROI
High Very High Very Low
Prediction Model Results for King Ranch Calving Season
Payne et al, 2008
SpringCalving
Fall Calving
Dual Calving
Wean Wt, lb Lowest Highest Medium
PG % Lowest Highest Medium
Cow Cost/hd, $
Highest Low Low
Net Income,$ Lowest High High
Variability NI High High Very Low
Investment,$ Highest High Very Low
Variability Invt.
Very High High Very Low
ROI Lowest High Highest
Variability, ROI
High Very High Very Low
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #2Problem #2
We don’t analyze deep We don’t analyze deep enough!enough!
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Story #3Story #3
Cow Efficiency:Cow Efficiency:
Big cows are less efficient thanBig cows are less efficient than
little cows! little cows!
Energy
Efficiency
High Bio Prod Cows
Low Bio Prod Cows
Jenkins and Ferrill, JAS 1993
Cow Efficiency
Problem #3Problem #3
Don’t know and understand Don’t know and understand the literature!the literature!
Story #4Story #4
Cow productivity is Cow productivity is increasing! increasing!
My cow’s calves weaning My cow’s calves weaning weights are going up! weights are going up!
Reality Check!Reality Check!Reality Check!Reality Check! Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota
Calves: Calves: Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= 484lbs 484lbs
Dooley et al., 1982Dooley et al., 1982
8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 496 lbs.496 lbs. Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994
45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 487 lbs.487 lbs. Dunn, Dunn,
20002000
Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Avg. Weaning Weights of South Dakota Calves: Calves: Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= Data collected from 497 ranches, 1978-79= 484lbs 484lbs
Dooley et al., 1982Dooley et al., 1982
8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 8 years of Farm Mgt. data, 1986-93 = 496 lbs.496 lbs. Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994Hoyt & Odekoven, 1994
45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 45 SPA herds 1996-99 = 487 lbs.487 lbs. Dunn, Dunn,
20002000
““Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Advocacy vs. Inquiry”Problem #4Problem #4
Anecdotes form foundationAnecdotes form foundation
of our beliefs leading to of our beliefs leading to inappropriate (and irrelevant) inappropriate (and irrelevant)
conclusions! conclusions!
ProblemsProblems1.1. Don’t know and understand Don’t know and understand
principles of statisticsprinciples of statistics If you are going to give a “Mean,” you If you are going to give a “Mean,” you
better give the “Range” and better give the “Range” and “Variance”!“Variance”!
If you say two numbers are different, If you say two numbers are different, better know the confidence interval!better know the confidence interval!
2.2. Don’t dig deep!Don’t dig deep!
3.3. Don’t know literature!Don’t know literature!
4.4. Based on anecdotes, opinions Based on anecdotes, opinions become facts!become facts!
So What?So What?
Other than who’s right, Other than who’s right,
what’s the problem? what’s the problem?
Advocacy without w/o appropriate Advocacy without w/o appropriate inquiry leads to failure in management!inquiry leads to failure in management!
Problem #1, Misuse of statisticsProblem #1, Misuse of statistics Misunderstand realityMisunderstand reality
Problem #2, Not going deepProblem #2, Not going deep Draw misleading conclusions Draw misleading conclusions
Problem #3, Don’t know the Problem #3, Don’t know the literatureliterature Repeat past mistakesRepeat past mistakes
Problem #4, AnecdotesProblem #4, Anecdotes Incomplete info leads to wrong path Incomplete info leads to wrong path
Failure in management results in:Failure in management results in: Inappropriate investment of Inappropriate investment of
scarce resources. scarce resources.
Inappropriate communication Inappropriate communication throughout “system” (company).throughout “system” (company).
Irresponsible decisions.Irresponsible decisions.
Failure Failure (in ag, long delays mask (in ag, long delays mask responsibility)responsibility)
Ladder of InferenceSenge et al, 1994
Observable data and experience
Select data fromwhat we observe
Add meaning from
background
Make assumptions
DrawConclusions
Adopt beliefs
Take action
Ladder of InferenceSenge et al, 1994
Observable data and experience
Select data fromwhat we observe
Add meaning from
background
Make assumptions
DrawConclusions
Adopt beliefs
Take action
Our beliefs affect the data we selectand reinforces ourbelief systems and biases
AD
VO
CA
CY
HIGHLOW By-Standing Politicking
DiscussAssert
Explain
Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994
INQUIRY
HIGH
Sensing
Anecdotes
Statistics
Test
Literature
LOW
Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994
Stories
Trends
INQUIRY
AD
VO
CA
CY
HIGH
HIGHLOW By-Standing
Sensing
Anecdotes
Statistics
Politicking
Discuss
Test
Literature
Assert
Explain
LOW
Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994
Stories
Trends
INQUIRY
AD
VO
CA
CY
HIGH
HIGHLOW By-Standing
Sensing
Anecdotes
Statistics
Politicking
Discuss
Test
Literature
Assert
Explain
LOW
Adopted fromSenge et al, 1994
Stories
Trends
Tools for UnderstandingTools for Understanding
LiteratureLiterature StatisticsStatistics Evaluation toolsEvaluation tools Systems thinkingSystems thinking Systems dynamics Systems dynamics
Let’s have adiscussion!
Successful Ranching in the 21Successful Ranching in the 21stst Century: Putting the Puzzle Century: Putting the Puzzle
Together”Together”
Modern Times
OverviewOverview
Dollars and CentsDollars and Cents InvestmentInvestment MarketingMarketing ProductionProduction ExpensesExpenses Pts of Pts of
Diminishing Diminishing ReturnsReturns
Strategic Mgt.Strategic Mgt. Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning Scenario PlanningScenario Planning Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard Why should you use Why should you use
themthem How do they workHow do they work
Dollars and Cents!Dollars and Cents!
Investment Production
ExpensesMarketing
SPA Comparison SPA Comparison Dunn, 2000 Dunn, 2000
n=148
Low Medium High
lbs. weaned/Cow exposed
413 455 455
Investment, $/Cow 1538g 2308h 1397g
Total exp., $/Cow 638d 387e 270f
Total rev., $/Cow 390g 423g 495h
Net Income, $/Cow -247a 36b 225c abcMeans with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.01) defMeans with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.05) gh Means with uncommon superscripts differ (P<.10)
SummarySummary
What are the Characteristics of High Profit What are the Characteristics of High Profit Producers?Producers?
1.1. Large operatorsLarge operators2.2. OlderOlder3.3. Inherited wealthInherited wealth4.4. Operate on Federal landOperate on Federal land5.5. Retain ownershipRetain ownership6.6. Operated in the western rangelandsOperated in the western rangelandsX
SummarySummary When compared to Low or Medium, When compared to Low or Medium,
High profit enterprises have: High profit enterprises have: Higher weaning %Higher weaning % No differences in:No differences in:
Weaning weightWeaning weight Death lossDeath loss Pregnancy %Pregnancy % Replacement rateReplacement rate Calving distributionCalving distribution
No differences in size of operation or No differences in size of operation or region.region.
SummarySummary
High profit ranches have: High profit ranches have: Lower Investment (High & Low vs. Lower Investment (High & Low vs.
Medium) Medium) Lower Total costs Lower Total costs
Lower Vet Med (High & Medium vs. Low)Lower Vet Med (High & Medium vs. Low) Lower DepreciationLower Depreciation Lower Inventory Adjustments (High & Lower Inventory Adjustments (High &
Medium vs. Low)Medium vs. Low) Lower Breakeven (UCOP)Lower Breakeven (UCOP) Greater RevenueGreater Revenue Greater Net Income Greater Net Income
Profit is a Set of RelationshipsProfit is a Set of Relationships
Investment in assets
(Land, Cattle,Equipment)
Production System
Value in the MarketPlace
AnnualExpenses
Investment Production
ExpensesMarketing
Production Function
Inputs
Outputs
Rational Business Behavior
Case & Fair, 1996
Strategic ManagementStrategic Management
Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning
Part of a management process Part of a management process designed to increase successdesigned to increase success
Widely used in businesses of all Widely used in businesses of all types, and sizes, all over the worldtypes, and sizes, all over the world
Relatively new to ranchingRelatively new to ranching Not hard, but requires discipline Not hard, but requires discipline
Scenario PlanningScenario Planning
Part of a management process Part of a management process designed to increase successdesigned to increase success
Relatively new in business, but used Relatively new in business, but used in all types, sizes, all over the worldin all types, sizes, all over the world
Very new to ranchingVery new to ranching Not hard, but requires dedication Not hard, but requires dedication
Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard
Designed to tie strategy to Designed to tie strategy to performanceperformance
Much like a report cardMuch like a report card Build it top downBuild it top down Works bottom upWorks bottom up Assigns specific metrics to Assigns specific metrics to
measure successmeasure success Assigns responsibilityAssigns responsibility
Combining Strategic Planning and Combining Strategic Planning and Scenario Planning and Scenario Planning and the Balanced Scorecardthe Balanced Scorecard
A new concept in business that A new concept in business that combines the positive forces of combines the positive forces of planning and reporting processes to planning and reporting processes to help improve the success of your ranchhelp improve the success of your ranch
Why Now?Why Now?
Because the business of ranching is Because the business of ranching is facing a period of unparalleled levels facing a period of unparalleled levels of change in the core aspects of its of change in the core aspects of its
business!business!•
MarketplacMarketplacee
DemandDemandPrice Price CostsCostsAccessAccessExportsExports
• VolatilityVolatility FeedFeed FuelFuel Cattle Cattle
• PolicyPolicyEthanolEthanolTaxTaxTradeTrade
KRIRM 5 Stage ProcessKRIRM 5 Stage Process
Stage 1: Charting the courseStage 1: Charting the course
Stage 2: Strategies to achieve visionStage 2: Strategies to achieve vision
Stage 3: Scenario planning for the Stage 3: Scenario planning for the ranchranch
Stage 4: Merging the 2 planning Stage 4: Merging the 2 planning processesprocesses
Stage 5: Putting the plan into action Stage 5: Putting the plan into action and and measuring success measuring success
Stage 1: Charting the CourseStage 1: Charting the Course
Charting the CourseCharting the Course Step 1: Assess the situation and Step 1: Assess the situation and
inventory resources:inventory resources: FinancialFinancial Natural resources Natural resources Physical resourcesPhysical resources Human ResourcesHuman Resources
Goal is to get a handle on the Goal is to get a handle on the entire picture in terms of #s and entire picture in terms of #s and conditioncondition
Charting the CourseCharting the Course
Step 2: Conduct SWOT analysisStep 2: Conduct SWOT analysis SStrengthstrengths WWeaknesseseaknesses OOpportunitiespportunities TThreatshreats
SWOTSWOTStrengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
Value of Value of SWOTSWOT
Can be used on the whole ranch or Can be used on the whole ranch or partpart
Proactive: used before action is Proactive: used before action is takentaken
Helps in objectivityHelps in objectivity Creates discussionCreates discussion It helps develop an objective It helps develop an objective
inventory of realistic “potential”inventory of realistic “potential” Balances “half full” vs. “half empty” Balances “half full” vs. “half empty”
Charting the CourseCharting the Course
Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision Should include:Should include:
Values and reason for beingValues and reason for being Envisioned futureEnvisioned future Recognition of how it serves its Recognition of how it serves its
stakeholdersstakeholders OwnersOwners EmployeesEmployees Customers Customers
Charting the CourseCharting the Course
Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision Should address Should address
Time: 5-10 yearsTime: 5-10 years Energy: Through language , a vision Energy: Through language , a vision
statement should inspirestatement should inspire Cooperation: should encourage Cooperation: should encourage
cooperation and creativity cooperation and creativity
Charting the CourseCharting the Course
Step 3: Establish a VisionStep 3: Establish a Vision The process: The process:
Allow yourself to dreamAllow yourself to dream Everyone should be involvedEveryone should be involved SharedShared Comments from outsidersComments from outsiders Key questions: Key questions:
““What do we want?”What do we want?” ““What are we willing to commit to?”What are we willing to commit to?”
““We progressively realize multigenerational We progressively realize multigenerational goals in a fun, challenging, encouraging goals in a fun, challenging, encouraging
environment and continually improve environment and continually improve people, products, services, the ranch, our people, products, services, the ranch, our
community, and the ecosystem while community, and the ecosystem while sustaining a net profit.”sustaining a net profit.”
Stage 2: Determining Strategies to Stage 2: Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionAchieve Vision
Determining Strategies to Achieve Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionVision
Step 4: GAP AnalysisStep 4: GAP Analysis Vision vs. current state Vision vs. current state How does vision fit with resources?How does vision fit with resources? How does business measure up?How does business measure up? How different is current culture How different is current culture
compared to what is needed?compared to what is needed?
Determining Strategies to Achieve Determining Strategies to Achieve VisionVision
Step 5: Strategies to close GAP Step 5: Strategies to close GAP Find new resourcesFind new resources Reallocate resourcesReallocate resources Lengthen timeLengthen time Modify size or scopeModify size or scope
Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch
Technology Continues To ImproveTechnology Continues To Improve
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Corn
Yie
ld
(Bu
./A
cre)
.
Harvest Year
U.S. Corn Yield
Actual Yield
Trend Yield
Source: USDA & K-State Ag. Econ.WASDE Report: 10.12.07
2004 Yield = 160 bu./ac2005 Yield= 148 bu./ac2006 Yield= 149.1 bu./ac2007 Yield = 154.7 bu./ac.2008 Trend Yield = 156.7 bu./ac.
KSU Dept. of Ag Econwww.agmanager.info
Reactive Reactive
WHERE WE AREPast Now Future
WHERE WE WANT TO BE
PLAN
REACTIVE
Ackoff, 1999
Preactive Preactive
WHERE WE AREPast Now Future
WHERE WE WANT TO BE
PLAN
PREACTIVE
Set Objectives
Predict
Akcoff, 1999
Questions for 2009:Questions for 2009:
What will commodity prices do?What will commodity prices do?
Will beef demand keep cattle prices up?Will beef demand keep cattle prices up?
What will be new administrations policyWhat will be new administrations policytowards _____?towards _____?
Corn Usage Estimates Corn Usage Estimates (Millions of Bushels)(Millions of Bushels)
USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDEUSDA/WASDE
2006/072006/07 2007/08 est. 2007/08 est.
Feed and ResidualFeed and Residual 5,6005,600 5,700 5,7001 1 (+2%)(+2%) Ethanol for FuelEthanol for Fuel 2,1152,115 3,200 3,200 (+51%)(+51%) ExportsExports 2,1252,125 2,350 2,350
(+11%)(+11%)
Ending StocksEnding Stocks 1,3041,304 1,997 1,997 (+53%)(+53%)
Total UsageTotal Usage 11,210 11,210 12,640 12,640 (+16%)(+16%)
1 1 Assumes DDGS retain 30% of the feed value of corn and are included in the feed and residual category by the Assumes DDGS retain 30% of the feed value of corn and are included in the feed and residual category by the USDA. USDA.
Interactive Interactive
WHERE WE AREPast Now Future
WHERE WE WANT TO BE
INTERACTIVE
PLAN
Akcoff, 1999
Idealized Design
Scenario Planning for the Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch
Step 6: Describe Multiple ScenariosStep 6: Describe Multiple Scenarios List “what ifs” that relate to your ranchList “what ifs” that relate to your ranch 6 to 106 to 10 A scenario is not: A scenario is not:
““Peace in the Middle East.”Peace in the Middle East.” ““Global warming will raise sea levels.”Global warming will raise sea levels.”
A scenario is:A scenario is: ““The price of oil will rise”The price of oil will rise” ““The price of hunting leases will level off.”The price of hunting leases will level off.”
Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the Stage 3: Scenario Planning for the RanchRanch
Step 7: Select and evaluate the Step 7: Select and evaluate the most probablemost probable Choose 2-4Choose 2-4 These can be tied to a SWOT analysisThese can be tied to a SWOT analysis These can be tied to GAPThese can be tied to GAP Collect objective informationCollect objective information Flesh out each with a paragraphFlesh out each with a paragraph
Stage 4: Merging Strategies and Stage 4: Merging Strategies and Scenario PlanningScenario Planning
Merging Strategies and Scenario Merging Strategies and Scenario PlanningPlanning
Step 8: Determine strategies with Step 8: Determine strategies with highest likely hood of successhighest likely hood of success
Scenario Scenario 1:1:
High feed $High feed $
Scenario Scenario 2:2:
Good Beef Good Beef Demand Demand
Scenario 3Scenario 3High Oil $High Oil $
Scenario 4Scenario 4??
ProductionStrategy 1 Strategy 2
+0
+-
+-
-0
FinancialStrategy 1 Strategy 2
-+
00
++
-+
LifestyleStrategy 1 Strategy 2
++
+0
+-
+-
Stage 5: Putting the Plan into Stage 5: Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessAction and Measuring Success
Putting the Plan into Action and Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessMeasuring Success
Step 9: Implementation of the planStep 9: Implementation of the plan Two critical componentsTwo critical components
CommitmentCommitment Communication Communication
Develop tactical and operational plansDevelop tactical and operational plans Who Who WhatWhat WhenWhen WhereWhere How How
Putting the Plan into Action and Putting the Plan into Action and Measuring SuccessMeasuring Success
Step 10: Monitoring performance Step 10: Monitoring performance and measuring successand measuring success Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard
Identify perspectivesIdentify perspectives Copy strategiesCopy strategies Set realistic goalsSet realistic goals Decide on when you will measureDecide on when you will measure Decide how you will measureDecide how you will measure Report out Report out
Balanced Scorecard Balanced Scorecard
Perspectives with Strategic Objectives for BOD
Goal Actual
Quality of Life + 3rd Gen Yes
Financial 10% ROE 10%
Customer OCB + Yes
Production500 Lbs/ Female
550
Natural Resources + Trend Yes
Leaning and GrowthCSU
WorkshopYes
Balanced Scorecard Balanced Scorecard
Perspectives with Strategic Objectives for BOD
Goal Actual
Quality of Life + 3rd Gen Yes
Financial 10% ROE 10%
Customer OCB + Yes
Production500 Lbs/ Female
550
Natural Resources + Trend Yes
Leaning and GrowthCSU
WorkshopYes
Concluding ThoughtsConcluding Thoughts
You must put the puzzle together!You must put the puzzle together! This is the time for strategic This is the time for strategic
management!management! Strategic planningStrategic planning Scenario planningScenario planning Balanced ScorecardBalanced Scorecard
Both are doable!Both are doable!
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