advice for the_wise-may_2012
TRANSCRIPT
ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – MAY 2012
2
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Index Page No.
Contents
Real Estate 16
From the Desk of the CIO…
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
Dear Investor,
The medium term outlook on the macroeconomic front has
predictably improved within India and to a limited extent globally as
well. The short term triggers seemed all very confusing though. The
much awaited monetary policy loosening began – supposedly with a
bang of a full 50 bps reduction in repo rates but with limited impact
on the yields. On the global economic front, the fragile recovery in
the US appeared to be under a shade of doubt as non-farm payroll
data came in and proved to be worse than expected. Also Europe
came under further scrutiny with Spain going through a bout of
social unrest on the back of increased pain of austerity measures.
Our medium term positive outlook however is based on the
proverbial woods rather than the trees. The lacklustre response of
yields to RBI rate cut was partially in response to the hawkish tone
of RBI warning against any expectation of further rate cuts if
inflation does not ease. With crude oil already starting to cool off,
that seems to be less of a concern. Also while bond markets may
react a certain way to the repo rate cut, the banks may react
differently and will eventually start reducing their deposit and
lending rates. The repo rate cut hence will take time to translate
into credit cost reduction and yield reduction. However, it is a
matter of when rather than if.
On the European front, we believe that the German over-emphasis
on austerity is probably appropriately countered by the emergence
of Mr. Hollande as the winner of French presidential elections.
While short term turbulence may rock the discussions in Euro zone
over austerity vs. growth and the specifics of the same, we expect
the medium term shifts in favour of lesser austerity to be a
welcome development for a continent starved for growth.
Turbulence notwithstanding hence, we are cautiously positive about
the developments in Euro zone.
Equity markets during uncertain times such as these are typically
range bound and offer limited near term growth. Investors would
do well to use a combination of strategic and tactical approaches –
strategically stay invested for the medium term and tactically shift
away from highly diversified index like investments to stock picking.
This is because while the broad markets may stay range bound, lot
of good quality stocks routinely get beaten down due to random
factors – thus offering very attractive entry levels.
On the fixed income side, medium term credit is probably the best
option for now to invest into. The corporate bond spreads may start
to narrow as the repo rate cut makes its way into the banking
system. Also a few select tax free bonds offer handsome medium
term capital appreciation potential due to unusually high current
yields.
6.80
7.30
7.80
8.30
8.80
9.30
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
4
As on 30th
April 2012Change over last month
Change over last year
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 17319 (0.5%) (9.5%)
S&P Nifty 5248 (0.9%) (8.7%)
S&P 500 1398 (0.7%) 2.5%
Nikkei 225 9521 (5.6%) (3.3%)
Debt Markets
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.68% 11 bps 54 bps
Call Markets 8.40% (432 bps) 207 bps
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% (25 bps) 75 bps
Commodity Markets
RICI Index 3788 (0.7%) (14.0%)
Gold (`/10gm) 29175 (5.7%) 31.8%
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 118.66 (3.8%) (6.3%)
Forex
Markets
Rupee/Dollar 52.52 (2.6%) (15.5%)
Yen/Dollar 80.23 2.5% 1.9%
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets
10 yr Gsec
Gold
* Indicates SBI one-year FD
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110Sensex NiftyS&P 500 Nikkei 225
40.00
42.00
44.00
46.00
48.00
50.00
52.00
54.00
56.00
`/$
5
US
Europe
Japan
Emerging economies
• The CPI inflation rate for March 2012 stands at 2.7%. It was 3.2% for the one year period ending in march
2011.
• The US unemployment rate has fallen to 8.1% in April 2012, as American employers only added 115,000
jobs and about 340,000 dropped out of the work force.
• Gross domestic product in US expanded by 2.2% annually. Consumer spending which accounts for about
70% of US economic activity, increased at a 2.9% rate - the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010.
• The Manufacturing PMI fell to a 34 month-low at 45.9 in April’12 down from 47.7 in March’12.
• Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a 15-year high of 10.9% in March, driven by lay-offs in Italy and
Spain. In Spain unemployment has reached 24.1%.
• S&P raised Greece's credit rating out of default territory to “CCC”, after Athens slashed its debt by about
one –third which was the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in financial history.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.7 in April’12 from 51.1 in March’12. It
expanded in April at a slightly slower pace from the previous month as new export orders dipped.
• IMF forecasts Japan's economy to expand 2% this year after contracting 0.7% last year.
• The unemployment rate in Japan continues to be stable in March 2012 at 4.5% as it was in February
2012, down from 4.6% recorded in January 2012.
• The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March. The
latest reading pointed a solid improvement in business conditions, although rate of expansion slowed
fractionally.
• IMF says China's economic growth will slow this year to 8.2% but will rebound to an 8.8% rate in 2013.
• China’s HSBC PMI registered a decline to 49.3 in April. This has indicated a sixth successive month-on-
month worsening of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China.
6
Economy Outlook - Domestic
• India's economic growth slowed to its weakest annual pace
in almost three years in the three months to December, as
high interest rates and rising input costs constrained
investment and manufacturing.
• Gross domestic product in India - Asia's third-largest
economy - grew at an annual 6.1% in the third quarter. It is a
significant slowdown from 6.9% in the previous quarter and
marks the fourth straight quarter of growth below 8%.
• The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external
demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest
rates, high inflation, a stagnant government and declining
business confidence.
GDP growth
• Industrial production growth slowed to 4.1% in February
2012 compared to 6.7% expansion in the previous year-ago
month. The government also sharply revised the January
2012 production number to 1.1% growth from the
previously reported 6.8% expansion and attributed it
"incorrect reporting" of sugar production data which
wrongly reported the sugar production to be at 134.08 lakh
tonnes instead of 58.09 lakh tonnes in January 2012.
• The manufacturing sector continued to remain
subdued, posting a growth of 4.0% compared to 7.5% in
the year-ago period, while mining rose 2.1% compared to
1.2% in February 2011. The electricity sector notched
robust growth in February and rose 8% compared to 6.8%
in the year-ago period.
IIP
8.68.1 8.4 8.3
7.8 7.76.9
6.1
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3)
-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
10.0%
Feb 11
Mar 11
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Economic Outlook - Domestic
As on 30th March 2012, Bank credits grew by 19.5% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 190Bps lower than the growth witnessedin March 2011(i.e. 21.4%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Ybasis grew at 17.4%, viz-a viz a growth of 15.8% inMarch2011.
Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet strongerbefore March 31, and meet their targets, and so there is aspurt in short-term deposits and advances.
On 17th April 2012, Reserve Bank of India cut interest ratesfor the first time in three years by reducing the repo rate by50 bps to 8%, to give boost to flagging economic growthbut warned that there is limited scope for further rate cuts.
India's headline annual rate of inflation, based on themonthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI), eased slightly to6.89% for March 2012 as compared to 6.95% for theprevious month and 9.68% for the correspondingmonth of the previous year. The
Food inflation, which has a weight of about 14%, roseto 9.94% from 6.07% in February. Fuel inflation was at10.41% against 12.83% in February. Notably, the WPIfor the month of January 2012 was revised upwardsfrom 6.55% to 6.89%.
India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined)rose to 9.47 % in March 2012 - the third month of sucha measure in the country of retail prices - against8.83% in the previous month.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
7* End of period figures
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Wholesale Price Index
8
Equity Outlook
The month of April saw market staying range bound due adverse news flow about India. FII sold around 300mn$ worth of Indian
Equity. There were a lot of concerns about GAAR (General anti-avoidance rules) related to FII taxation. Also, absence of fuel price
deregulation also led to concerns about fiscal deficit.
We believe that most of the concerns are overdone. The GAAR issue should clarified within this month as the Finance bill will be put
in parliament. Monetary policy has remained extremely easy in developed part of the world and developing markets like China &
India have started the monetary easing cycle.
Finally, RBI started the monetary easing cycle with the first cut after eighteen months of tightening. With a 50bps repo rate cut, RBI
has clearly become less hawkish. With IIP data showing significant cool-off in manufacturing activity, RBI decided to give growth a big
thrust. Non-food manufactured products inflation, which was 8.4 per cent in November 2011, decelerated significantly to 5.8 per
cent in February and further to 4.7 per cent in March 2012 giving RBI the necessary cushion to cut. A slowdown in domestic demand
and softening of global non-oil commodity prices has led to reduction in non-food inflation which is expected to stay low in FY13
9
Equity Outlook
RBI has guided for a FY13 GDP growth rate of 7.3% with an annual inflation target of 6.5% thus expecting a nominal GDP
growth rate of around 14%. We expect corporate earnings to grow between 15% as interest liability comes down and input
costs reduce due to fall in non-oil commodity prices.
European debt markets have calmed down due to massive liquidity injection (LTRO 1& 2) done by European central bank.
Bond yields of PIIGS countries have become stable except for Spain where to continue to move up. We believe that debt
markets in Europe will see more ECB intervention which will lead to decline in concerns about the stability of euro area.
The earnings season is going mostly on expected lines. More companies have surprised on the positive than on the
negative. The earnings growth has been led by Private sector banking and FMCG companies. With FY13 earnings at 1300
Rs, markets are now trading at 13 times one year forward which is cheap by historical standards. We believe that growth
will bounce back in second half of the year and current valuation provide an attractive entry point in the market.
10
Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
BFSI Overweight
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in
managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth
Automobiles Overweight
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started coming
down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have already started to trickle down. We are more
bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing
power.
E&C Neutral
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order inflow
activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has
started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space.
FMCG NeutralWe prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
Telecom Neutral
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels
in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we
believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
Sector View
11
Sector Stance Remarks
IT/ITES Neutral
While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow
down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide cushion to IT
companies earnings .
Metals Neutral
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth
recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space.
Cement NeutralCement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are
becoming constructive on this space.
Healthcare Neutral
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
Power Utilities NeutralWe like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Energy UnderweightWe would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
0.0
0.9
1.7
2.6
3.4
4.2
5.1
5.9
6.8
7.6
8.5
9.3
10
.1
11
.0
11
.8
12
.7
13
.5
14
.4
15
.2
16
.1
16
.9
17
.7
18
.6
19
.4
12
Debt Outlook
• The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 9 bps in April to close at 8.68%.
• The yields on 10-year benchmark government bonds fell by 9 bps from 8.46% to 8.37% in a day when the 50 Bps rate cut
was announced. But the yields bounced back by almost 30 bps to 8.67% on 30th April 2012 on account of expectations that
the government may issue a new 10-year benchmark bond and the current security may turn illiquid soon.
• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond offers has increased by 15 bps to 76 bps giving an yield of 9.44% as on 30th
April 2012.
10-yr G-sec yieldYield curve
(%)
(%)
6.80
7.30
7.80
8.30
8.80
9.30
Debt Strategy
OutlookCategory Details
Long Tenure Debt
With the much awaited trend reversal in the interest rates coming as a50 Bps rate cut and signals of no more cuts in near future, we wouldrecommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in thesame. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide anopportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates.Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want tostay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) andthose who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at thecurrent yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of thespreads making entry at current levels attractive.
13
The much awaited and expected trend reversal of the interest ratesstarting with a 50 Bps rate cut, we would recommend investment inshort term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive andearly too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBIhas a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher.Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providinginteresting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure Debt
Credit
14
Forex
• INR has depreciated against all the major currencies. Itdepreciated by 2.6%, in April ( 4.3% in March 2012) against theUS Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it hasappreciated by 1.5%
• However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact oninflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per centof its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in the rupee.
• Rupee depreciated against Euro by 1.8%. The euro was seenrecovering its losses on account of smooth Italian bondauction, which tried to cool the European markets which weresparked by the downgrade of Spain.
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• Exports during March, 2012 were valued at US$ 28.68 billionwhich was 5.71% lower than the level of US$ 30.41 billionduring March, 2011 while Imports during March, 2012 werevalued at US$ 42.59 billion representing a growth of 24.28%over the level of imports valued at US$ 34.27 billion inMarch, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $13.90 billion.
• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revisedfrom Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure wasrevised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100Crores.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract moreinvestments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIswould also help in bringing in more funds though uncertaintyin the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
-2.59%
-4.32%
-1.83%
-4.75%-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
USD GBP EURO YEN
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 10 (Q2)
FY 10 (Q3)
FY 10 (Q4)
FY 11 (Q1)
FY 11 (Q2)
FY 11 (Q3)
FY 11 (Q4)
FY 12 (Q1)
FY 12 (Q2)
Capital Account Balance
15
Commodities
Precious
Metals
Oil & Gas
The risk premium in the oil market currently reduced considerably asindicated by the oil trading range which is the tightest since 1995. A$4.81 dollar range for the month of April implies that the oil markethas found an equilibrium now. The OPEC product rose by 1% to31.405 mbpd in April prompted hedge funds to trim their oilexposure for the time being. Expect WTI to trade in a tight range of$105.17 to $102.23 and a break of $102 might take oil prices to $96.
Crude
Gold
The growing uncertainties in euro zone continues to keep goldprices stable. The focus has now shifted to Spain from Greece. WithSpain unemployment surging to the highest level in 18 years and itseconomy shrinking 0.4% in 1Q from 0.3% contraction in theprevious quarters, the problem in euro zone is far from over andgold as safe haven is still a preferred choice. The France and Greeceelections round the corner, global markets are expected to swingwidely aid to gold stability. On the flip side, the continuing ultralow fed fund rates and Fed willingness to other measures down theroad to boost the economy shall only benefit gold. Technicallyspeaking, gold faces slew of resistance between $1665 to $1700;while the rupee depreciation pushed domestic prices withinstriking distance of Rs.30000 mark, we continue to maintain ourneutral stance.
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
Real Estate Outlook - I
16
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
The FY12 year ended in vain with lots of expectation of price correction.
Though, all prime pockets in Mumbai, Pune, Gurgaon and Bangalore
have recorded 8-9% better sales in the last quarter of the FY12
compared to FY11, majorly due to new project launches. Markets like
Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore to an extent remained
stagnant due to bigger projects being launched by all major local
developers. Mumbai is majorly affected by the building plans not being
sanctioned from almost over a year. The new Development Control
Rules (DCR) and have only indicated a rise in price and precisely due the
same reasons Thane has gained enormously on appreciation and
investment last year. Gurgon expansion in sectors like 114, 90 and 65
all far ends, have only taken the price of prime sectors 10-12% high.
The UP elections kept Noida unattractive for almost 3 quarter in FY12.
Not much change in prices, though the investors
demand in these sectors increased since prices being
still affordable. Also the infrastructure development in
Tier II cities have been dramatic in last 2-3 years and
opened the city wide on real estate developments with
high-rise buildings taking the glam quotient high with
the new generation or emergence of nuclear families
in last decade. With the new Finance Bill approving of
ECB in Affordable Housing sector, lot of change is
expected in demand since it targets houses in the
range of 15-20 lacs.
Commercial/IT
Though 30% better on lease transaction than last year, the capital
values have taken a major hit due to the rent being compressed. The
supply seems still a concern and will only even out in 2014-15. IT/ITES
and Services consuming over 70% of real estate in India is now seen
governing the market dynamics. Average rentals other than Mumbai for
warm shell remains still under Rs. 40 per sqft.
High streets have seen appreciation, traditional
commercial locations still preferred and are intact on
values. Cities like Lucknow, Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,
Surat, Vishakatnam, Chandigarh, Madurai are thriving
on better consume aspirations.
Real Estate Outlook - II
17
Please Note:Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and KolkattaTier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I marketsThe IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
Other than India’s top 10-15 malls, most have vacancy of
minimum 30% and lately many have changed plans to suit
commercial demand. Traditional investors exposure to the
segment came down drastically making exits of developer
difficult. The revenue share model with retailers remains a
concern to all mall developers.
Nothing to beat local traditional markets. Malls are many and
footfalls keep reducing year on year putting heavy conversion
pressure on retailers to keep innovating lease as well as product
to achieve break-even. Many brands have increased their
presence in Hi-streets than malls.
Land
Very attractive, still have scope of high appreciation. India’s
Infrastructure story will only keep demand high and the Real
Estate Investors (small and big) are exploring the unexplored.
Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit since the
trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
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Honest, unbiased advise
18
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Pedigreed Senior Management Team
19
Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
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accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
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their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
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20
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