ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – NOVEMBER 2012

2

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 11

Forex 13

Commodities 14

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 15

From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”

Dear Investor,

October was month of consolidation in the equity markets as well as debt

markets. The monetary policy announcement from RBI was an important

cause of both. On the equity front however, part of the consolidation was

also driven by aggressive profit booking by retail investors. A curious trend

that has become prevalent in recent weeks amongst retail investors has

continued. This is the classic case of “once-bitten-twice-shy”. Many

investors saw a precipitous fall in the value of their equity portfolios

through 2011 and were relieved to see some of that reverse in 2012. As

equity markets scaled higher levels most retail investors rushed to sell their

holdings as the portfolio values reached at least their starting levels. Much

of this was also caused by the memory of the panic of 2008 when falling

markets left investors with limited opportunity to exit in time.

The trend is curious since the underlying economic factors were probably

at their worst in Indian economy a few months ago and have only improved

since. Earlier this year, a combination of policy logjam, high commodities

prices, persistent inflation, falling rupee, tight monetary policy and a

constant barrage of scandals meant the growth expectations in Indian

economy were repeatedly revised downwards. Also all of this was

happening against a fairly worrisome global context – with problems in

economies across Eurozone, China, US and Japan. A lot of positive changes

have happened since then – both within and outside India. This is aptly

reflected in the equity market valuations as well. However, this upward

revision of valuations and risk appetite seems limited to institutional

investors. Retail investors seem to have ignored the change in

fundamentals and have focused merely on absolute market levels. We

believe this would seriously limit the actual wealth building they can expect

to do from equity investing and thus advise strongly against it.

We are also changing our stance on long term debt from cautious to

positive. This is in light of the absence of repo cut in RBI’s announcement

last month as well as its relatively mild tone regarding the future monetary

policy stance. The expectation setting done by RBI regarding a rate cut to

be feasible not before January next year also augers well for medium term

investors of long term debt. We believe that the long term debt securities

are likely to be fairly or cheaply priced for now and are thus poised for a

good rally through calendar year 2013 as monetary policy either eases or

shows signs of easing.

A pivotal event to watch out for in the month of November is the US

presidential election results. We expect that the re-election of President

Obama would keep global investors in the current state of risk appetite –

cautiously positive. However, should Mr. Romney be elected, the effect on

risk assets globally is likely to be negative in the short run. This is because

of the explicitly anti-loose-monetary-policy stand of the Republican

candidate. Many experts expect him to reverse the loose monetary policy

of the US Fed and also potentially end QE-III (which the reader might recall

is an ongoing $20bn-a-month mortgage—backed-securities purchase

program of US Fed). We are not sure if he would jump to do that

immediately and hence the effects on markets might be short-term.

However, if he indeed takes these extreme steps, risk appetite might

plunge globally. Also if this development has adverse effect on the US

economy in terms of slowdown of the already feeble growth, equity

markets in US and globally may face strong headwinds in the medium term

as well.

4

As on 31st Oct 2012

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 18505 (1.4%) 4.5%

S&P Nifty 5620 (1.5%) 5.5%

S&P 500 1412 (2.0%) 12.7%

Nikkei 225 8928 0.7% (0.7%)

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.22% (7 bps) (66 bps)

Call Markets 8.04% 1 bps (50 bps)

Fixed Deposit* 8.50% 50 bps (75 bps)

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3666 (4.2%) (1.9%)

Gold (`/10gm) 30931 (1.0%) 13.7%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 109.9 (1.3%) 1.3%

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 54.12 (2.62%) (9.7%)

Yen/Dollar 79.64 (2.2%) (4.9%)

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

7.50

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60 `/$

• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

5

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, improved again

in October. The Index now stands at 72.2, up from 68.4 in September.

• The U.S. unemployment report before the presidential election showed a jobless rate that rose to 7.9%

in October from 7.8% in September. The number of jobs in the economy rose by a healthy 171,000.

• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.4 in October 2012, from 46.1 in

September. The manufacturing sector opened the final quarter of 2012 on a disappointing footing, as the

downturn in the sector gathered pace.

• Eurozone’s unemployment rate for month of September came in at 11.6% slightly above 11.5% in August.

Euro zone unemployment has reached highest level since 1995.

Economy Update - Global

• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 46.9 in October, down from 48.0 in September signaling

further deterioration in the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector. The fall back in the

headline PMI to an 18-month low during October was disappointing in the context of last month’s slight

rise.

• Japan's industrial output contracted by 4.1% in September from August and 8.1% from a year earlier as

automakers and steel mills cut production due to shrinking demand and antagonisms with China

• China’s HSBC PMI inched slightly higher to 49.5 in October from 47.9 in September signaling a full year of

monthly deteriorations in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. However, with the PMI at

an eight-month high, the latest data indicated the rate of deterioration was marginal.

• India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 52.9 in October, broadly unchanged from the

reading of 52.8 in September, and signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing

sector.

6

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• India's economic growth languished near its slowest in three

years in the quarter that ended in June but was slightly better

than expected. India's quarterly GDP grew 5.5 percent, driven

by a rebound in construction and financial services, just above

the 5.3% posted in the three months ended in March. Also it is

much lower compared to 8% GPD growth in the same quarter

last financial year. This is the lowest Q1 performance in a

decade, because of falling activity in manufacturing, mining and

quarrying.

• Despite all this, there is a silver lining by way of a sequential

uptrend in the growth rate. After continuous reduction in the

growth rate in successive quarters beginning in the fourth

quarter of 2010-11, this is the first time when quarterly growth

rate has exceeded the growth rate in the previous quarter.

GDP growth

• The industrial output for August 2012 grew by 2.7% against drop of

(‐) 0.2% (revised figure) recorded in the month of July 2012,

after several months of stagnant and even declining growth. It's a

modest figure alright but the biggest year-on-year rise this fiscal,

and seems to suggest a turnaround in growth. It is true that growth

of capital goods production remains negative year-on-year and very

much in the doldrums. Revised government revised the July output

and it fell by 0.2%.

• The better than expected IIP growth came due to better growth in

the manufacturing, mining and electricity posted growth of 2.9%,

2.0% and 1.9%, respectively.

• The August IIP figures show that manufacturing, with 75.5% weight

in the index, has grown a credible 2.9%. But note that for April-

August, the growth in manufactures is actually zero.

IIP

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Aug 11

Sep 11

Oct 11

Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12

Feb 12

Mar 12

Apr 12

May 12

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug 12

8.4 8.3 7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.3 5.5

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on 31st September 2012, Bank credits grew by 13% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 10% lower than the growth witnessed in September 2011. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 10.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 21.3% in September 2011.

On 30th October 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate-the key policy rate-unchanged in its mid quarter monetary policy review, however it cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The 25-basis point cut in CRR is expected to release around Rs 17,500 crore into the system.

The RBI explained the CRR reduction as a forward-looking measure to address the liquidity pressures expected to arise in the near term on account of the seasonal pickup in credit growth in the second half of the fiscal year; and increase in currency demand related to the onset of the festive season in India.

The government’s diesel price raise has pushed wholesale price index-based inflation to its highest level this fiscal at 7.81% in September as prices of wheat, cereals and diesel soared. Inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), was 7.55% in August. In September last year, however, it was 10%. Inflation for July was revised upwards to 7.52%, from 6.87% as per provisional estimates.

The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.6% & the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 2.1%. Inflation in manufactured items rose to 6.24% in September, the highest in this financial year. Part of it came through higher processed food prices, as inflation here rose to 9.76% in September from 9.01%, due to a spurt in the prices of sugar and edible oils.

India's annual consumer price inflation fell in September to 9.73 percent, driven by a marginal fall in fuel and food prices from a 10.03% (final) for the month of August 2012.

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

7 * End of period figures

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

Wholesale Price Index

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0%

Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

8

Equity Outlook

Economy has Bottomed Out

Global equity markets consolidated in the month of October while waiting for the US residential election results. FII’s continued to prefer

India over other emerging markets with further investments of USD 2 billion in October taking the year till date number to USD 18 billion.

In India, RBI continued to ease monetary policy though the instrument chosen was CRR. RBI reduced CRR by 25bps in October review. This

will release 17,500 crores of additional liquidity in the system. The expected inflation number at end of FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7%

earlier. Economic growth continues to weaken globally. While acknowledging that ‘Indian economy continues to be sluggish held down by

stalled investments, weakening consumption and declining exports’, RBI wants to wait for recently announced government policy measures

to be implemented before it changes its stance on monetary policy. The full year GDP growth guidance has been lowered to 5.8% from 6.5%

earlier. We believe that the current steps taken by the Government on the fiscal front will give RBI the necessary cushion to carry out rate

cuts in the coming quarters. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic

growth. We expect a further 50 bps cut in repo rate this fiscal although it may happen only in January 2013 when core inflation is expected to

fall below 5%.

The IIP number of 2.7% for August was a positive surprise indicating an improvement in industrial activity. Manufacturing growth also inched

up in October from September’s 10-month low, supported by a pick-up in new orders and an easing of price pressures pointing to an

improvement in the key sector. This combined with a rebound in auto and cement sales numbers indicate that economy has bottomed out

and we would see a revival in GDP growth going forward.

Q2 result season has commenced. Healthcare, FMCG and private sector banks have reported results that are mostly better than market

expectations. Public sector banks continue to show stress on the asset quality front. We maintain our positive view on domestic consumption

theme and private sector banks on good Q2 results. In the next few months, we might several more actions on the fiscal policy side which will

help in reviving growth. Investors should increase allocation to equity at every-dip.

9

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

BFSI Overweight

The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to

increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better

management quality and higher balance sheet discipline.

FMCG Overweight

We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as

the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable

incomes.

Automobiles Overweight

Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also

getting cheaper. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to

lesser competition and higher pricing power.

Healthcare Neutral

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price

control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.

E&C Neutral

The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the

sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive

on this space.

10

Sector View

Sector Stance Remarks

Telecom Equalweight

The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability

levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and

we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

Cement Equalweight

Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong

view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.

Power Utilities Equalweight

We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings

and decent return on capital.

IT/ITES Underweight

With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow

down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.

Rupee appreciation will put pressure on margins in the near term

Energy Underweight

We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying

economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Metals Underweight

Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth

in China and developed parts of the world.

11

Debt Outlook

• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 7 bps to 8.22%, during the month October 2012.

• RBI has maintained its stance of focusing more on inflation in the Inflation growth trade-off stating that ‘Managing inflationary expectations must remain the primary focus of monetary policy.’ The expected inflation number at end of FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7% earlier.

• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 78 bps on 31st October 2012 from 82 Bps(as on 28th Sept 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9% on 31st October 2012.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

0.0

0

.8

1.6

2

.4

3.2

4

.0

4.9

5

.7

6.5

7

.3

8.1

8

.9

9.7

1

0.5

1

1.3

1

2.1

1

2.9

1

3.7

1

4.5

1

5.3

1

6.1

1

6.9

1

7.7

1

8.5

1

9.4

7.50

7.70

7.90

8.10

8.30

8.50

8.70

8.90

9.10

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, we would recommend to start investing in the Longer term papers and hold on to the current investments as well. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

12

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too ( Next probable cut in the Quarter Jan-March 2013). Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

13

Forex

• INR has depreciated against three major currencies. INR depreciated by 2.6% against the US Dollar. Rupee has depreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.57%

• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.

• INR has depreciated more than 9 percent in over 12 month's period on weak economic and fiscal conditions. The adverse balance of payments, in which capital flows have been insufficient to fund the current account deficit, remains the core reason for this sharp depreciation.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

Exports during September, 2012 were valued at US $ 23.69 bn which was 10.8% lower than the level of US $ 26.6 bn during September, 2011. Imports during September, 2012 were valued at US $ 41.78 Bn representing a negative growth of 5.09% over the level of imports valued at US $ 39.75 Bn in September, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $18.08 Bn.

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

-20

0

20

40

60 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

-2.62%

-1.57%

-2.85%

0.01%

-3.00%

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

USD GBP EURO YEN

14

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major fall. Combined. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher.

Crude

Gold

We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold on a medium to longer time frame following the bond purchase program of ECB and easy liquidity regime. While the gold in USD terms continue to move higher, rupee denominated gold went into consolidation phase following a sharp rise in rupee, thereby keeping domestic prices under the lid. Having said that, gold is entering into its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices to go north. The current consolidation phase should be used to accumulate for the long term.

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Real Estate Outlook - I

15

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence

coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and

shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have

seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user

transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,

Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2

quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,

the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these

markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a

good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well

under 1500 sqft)

Prices surged since last quarter, factors being

largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring

first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,

Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh

highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft

range

Commercial/IT

Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends

getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai

still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small

office spaces from investors

Very less benchmarks available but the rents are

growing 8-10% every year for commercial

properties in Tier-II cities

Real Estate Outlook - II

16

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have

been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well

awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major

cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied

and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in

prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up

of FDI.

Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated

beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a

re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial

offices, call centers, super-market etc

Land

30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming

expensive month on month. Interest from investors has

drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.

Land has given better appreciation in these markets than

Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land

property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming

areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land

valuable

Why Karvy Private Wealth?

We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class

Open Architecture – Widest array of products

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We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-S Service Promise” :

• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products

The KPW 3-S Service promise:

Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do.

Honest, unbiased advise

17

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

18

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to

time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other

securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further

restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their

respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new

Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

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INP000001512”

19

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