advice for the wise august 2012
TRANSCRIPT
ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – AUGUST 2012
2
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Index Page No.
Contents
Real Estate 16
From the Desk of the CIO…
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
Dear Investor,
Last month saw the pitch for monetary easing build across the board in
India – only to be ultimately ignored by RBI in its monetary policy
announcement towards the end of the month. While a suitably strong case
can be made for as well as against further monetary easing in India owing
to the specific circumstances Indian economy finds itself in currently (vis-à-
vis moderate growth and somewhat uncomfortable inflation), RBI has
chosen to play it safe and focus on inflation first. It is both difficult and
futile to second-guess how RBI might be thinking about growth vs inflation.
However, it suffices to notice that the explicit message in its
communication was clearly inflation focused. This hence points to the
unlikelihood of repo rate reduction in the next review as well, unless fuel
and food prices cool off considerably.
Despite the hopes of monetary easing, most market participants in Indian
equity markets as well as debt markets were quite prepared for RBI’s
stance and announcement, thus reacting little to the announcement when
it came. We expect that the future market movement in debt and equity
markets will be determined more by domestic policy actions and
developments in Euro-zone. Another “swing” factor could be the renewed
optimism regarding quantitative easing (QE-3) by the US Federal Reserve
that is getting built globally. This is purportedly because of continued
sluggishness of economic growth in the US. However, owing to the limited
perceived success of QE-1 and QE-2 though, the opinion is quite divided
over whether the Fed will actually go for QE-3 in the near future. We
believe that QE-1
and QE-2 came at the time of much worse economic outlook in the US.
They were both used to revive credit growth in the wake of the financial
crisis which led to a sudden drop in credit availability because of extreme
risk aversion amongst private sector banks based on their massive write-
offs through the crisis. Considering the relatively better state of bank
balance sheets now and much better availability of credit in general than
that through the crisis months, quantitative easing at this point will
probably only serve to bid up the prices of risk assets. It might not have a
major impact on the real economy. Given this, the Fed may choose to keep
the QE option for a later and worse state if it comes about.
Through turbulent but range-bound months such as those of CY12 till now,
a useful approach to managing investments is to rebalance the portfolio
regularly to book profits in the “winning” ideas/stocks/assets and to
increase exposure in “losing” ones – insofar as one believes that both of
them are sound investments to start with and can be held for the long term
if necessary. This sort of regular rebalance translates the nearly tautological
and thus meaningless dictum of buy-low and sell-high into a disciplined
activity with some benefit. This is because one buys as asset when it goes
down in value and sells another one that goes up in value – albeit in
incremental quantities. If the overall range-bound but volatile behavior of
various assets continues through the year, one is often better off in this
approach than purely holding on to all the investments as they were at the
beginning of the year. This applies to the overall portfolio of various
instruments as it does to a purely equity stocks portfolio.
4
As on 31st July 2012
Change over last month
Change over last year
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 17236 (1.1%) (5.3%)
S&P Nifty 5229 (0.9%) (4.6%)
S&P 500 1379 1.3% 6.7%
Nikkei 225 8695 (3.5%) (11.6%)
Debt Markets
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.25% 7 bps (20 bps)
Call Markets 8.03% 21 bps 13 bps
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps (25 bps)
Commodity Markets
RICI Index 3637 5.8% (9.8%)
Gold (`/10gm) 29905 1.1% 28.8%
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 105.93 12.5% (8.6%)
Forex
Markets
Rupee/Dollar 55.81 0.9% (20.9%)
Yen/Dollar 78.3 1.6% (0.6%)
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets
10 yr Gsec
Gold
• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
`/$ `/$
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
6.80
7.30
7.80
8.30
8.80
9.30
5
US
Europe
Japan
Emerging economies
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June’12, improved slightly in
July’12. The Index now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up from 62.7 in June’12.
• The US unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in month of July, slightly higher than 8.2% in June. Gross
domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annual rate between April and June, the weakest pace of growth
since the third quarter of 2011.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.0 in July (a 37-month low), down
from 45.1 in June. The PMI has now signalled contraction for 12 consecutive months.
• The European Central Bank held its main interest rate at a record low of 0.75% in July, waiting to see
whether inflation and the euro zone economy slow further before deciding on any fresh cut in borrowing
costs.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 47.9 in July, down from 49.9 in June. Japanese
manufacturing production declined for a second successive month in July, and at an accelerated rate.
• The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.3% in June declining for the second
straight month, but overall the economy continues to struggle after last year's disaster and as demand
from debt-laden Europe weakens.
• China’s HSBC PMI inched higher to 49.3 in July from 48.2 in June signalling only a marginal deterioration
in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. Moreover, the month-on-month increase in the
index was the largest in 21 months. The benchmark one-year lending rate was cut by 31 basis points to
6% and the one-year deposit rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 3%.
• India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a lower-than-expected 7.25% in June from a year earlier, mainly
driven by higher food prices.
6
Economy Outlook - Domestic
• India's economic growth fell below the psychologically
significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling
that country’s slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors
of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture
sectors have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.3% as
compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier.
• The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external
demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, high
inflation, a stagnant government and declining business
confidence. With the economy battling multiple
macroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is under
pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest rates
to boost the investment climate in the economy.
GDP growth
• The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded by a low 2.4% in
May 2012 relative to the 6.2% growth in May 2011, due to
contraction in capital goods and mining output, coupled with poor
show by manufacturing sector. The April’12 IIP has been revised
lower to -0.9% from earlier estimate of 0.1%.
• Several use-based industries displayed a decline in growth in May
2012 relative to May 2011, including capital goods (to -7.7% from
6.2%), consumer non-durables (to 0.1% from 9.0%) and basic goods
(to 4.1% from 7.5%). However, a faster pace of growth was
recorded in May 2012 relative to the same month in 2011 by
consumer durables (to 9.3% from 5.1%) and intermediate goods (to
2.7% from 0.1%).
• For the first two months of the current fiscal, April-May, the
industrial growth is sharply lower at 0.8%, compared to 5.7% in the
year-ago period.
IIP
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Apr 11
May 11
Jun 11
Jul 11
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
8.1 8.4 8.3
7.8 7.7
6.9
6.1
5.3
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)
Economic Outlook - Domestic
As on 29th June 2012, Bank credits grew by 16.5% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 542 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in June 2011 (i.e. 21.5%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 13.5%, viz-a viz a growth of 20.4% in June 2011.
Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in short-term deposits and advances, post that there has been a decline in both the months.
On 31st July 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the key policy rates unchanged and cut the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by 100 bps to 23%, as the primary focus of policy remained on inflation control in order to secure a sustainable growth path over the medium-term
India's wholesale price index (WPI), the main inflation gauge, rose to a lower-than-expected annual 7.25% in June, its slowest rate since January, helped by moderation in fuel prices, yet remained above the central bank's comfort level. The annual rate of inflation (WPI) stood at 7.55% in May’12. WPI inflation was 9.44% in June’11. The annual reading for April was upwardly revised to 7.5% from 7.23%
Food inflation rose to 10.81 percent from 10.74%. Fuel and power prices rose at a slower pace of 10.27% after increasing 11.53% in May. Manufactured goods inflation remained at 5%. Core inflation remained unchanged from the May’12 levels of 4.85%
India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) declined slightly to 10.02% in June 2012 -- the sixth month of such a measure in the country of retail prices -- as compared to 10.36% in the previous month. The base effect of inflation in housing contributed to the fall in inflation.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
7 * End of period figures
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
Wholesale Price Index
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
8
Equity Outlook
Global equity market remained optimistic in July on the back of expectations about monetary easing from European central bank and
US Fed. Indian equity markets ended on a flat note with Markets waiting for next set of economic reform measures to be announced
by the central government. We have a new finance minister Mr. Chidambaram and expectations are running high about action on
Direct tax code, GST and aviation and retail reforms.
Foreign investors have put in 10.5 billion dollars in Indian Equity markets so far this calendar year. After a very turbulent CY11 in which
nifty corrected 24%, Indian equity markets have bounced back this year with a 13% return on CYTD basis. In last six months, sectors
like consumer, healthcare and private sector banking have done quite well with robust earnings growth and double digit stock price
gains. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic growth.
13.10%
-24.60%
17.90%
-30.00%
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
YTD CY11 CY10
Nifty Returns
Equity Outlook
RBI announced the Quarterly monetary policy review on 31st July. It made no changes to policy rates in this review. RBI has
taken adequate care of liquidity deficit first through 125bps cut in CRR last quarter and now with the SLR cut of 1%. The
concerns remain more about the overall growth situation in the country with RBI downgrading growth target for FY13 from 7.3%
to 6.5%. With a weak monsoon, agricultural growth is expected to slip and industrial output shows little signs of picking up.
However, RBI has decided to focus more on managing inflationary risks as of now. They have raised the baseline projection of
WPI based inflation to 7% for March, 2013 as against the earlier projection of 6.50%. While we agree with RBI about suppressed
inflation in India due to incomplete pass through of fuel and power costs, the political environment is not conducive to fuel and
power price hikes and as such the headline inflationary numbers are expected to stay low.
The Q1FY13 earnings have been on expected lines so far. FMCG & healthcare spaces have announced strong results on the back
of commodity prices easing and rupee depreciation respectively. Private sector banks have also delivered good results with
stable earnings and peaking out of NPAs. Markets are currently trading at cheap valuations and we believe cautiousness in the
near term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with a slightly longer-term view
10
Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Healthcare Overweight
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
BFSI Overweight
The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
management quality and higher balance sheet discipline
FMCG Overweight
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes.
Automobiles Overweight
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have
already started to trickle down. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles
segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Telecom Neutral
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly
and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
11
Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Cement Neutral Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
E&C Neutral
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector.
Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this
space.
Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
earnings and decent return on capital.
Energy Underweight We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
in developed parts of the world.
IT/ITES Underweight With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.
12
Debt Outlook
• The New 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield rose by 7 bps in July’12 to close at 8.25%.
• RBI reduced the SLR (the portion of bank deposits held in treasury bills) to 23 percent from 24 percent, in its bid to
increase liquidity to support credit growth. The move is expected to release around Rs 60,000 crore in the system. This
change will be effective from 11th August 2012.
• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread marginally increased to 102 Bps (31st July 2012) from 96 bps (29th
June 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.27% on 31st July 2012.
10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve
(%)
(%)
7.4
7.6
7.8
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
0.0
0
.8
1.6
2
.4
3.2
4
.0
4.7
5
.5
6.3
7
.1
7.9
8
.7
9.5
1
0.2
1
1.0
1
1.8
1
2.6
1
3.4
1
4.2
1
5.0
1
5.7
1
6.5
1
7.3
1
8.1
1
8.9
1
9.7
6.80
7.30
7.80
8.30
8.80
9.30
Debt Strategy
Outlook Category Details
Long Tenure Debt
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
13
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure Debt
Credit
14
Forex
• INR has appreciated against USD, GBP & Euro whereas it witnessed a depreciation against Japanese Yen. INR appreciated by 0.9%, in July (Appreciated by 0.2% in June 2012) against the US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has depreciated by 4.5%
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been taking a series of steps to rein in the currency’s loss, including curbing banks’ abilities to speculate in the currency market since last two months. The central bank sold at least $20 billion to stabilize the currency.
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
Capital Account Balance
• Exports during June, 2012 were valued at US $25.06 bn which was 5.45% lower than the level of US $ 26.51 bn during June, 2011. Imports during June, 2012 were valued at US $35.37 bn representing a negative growth of 13.46% over the level of imports valued at US $40.87 bn in June, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $10.03 bn.
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
USD GBP EURO YEN
15
Commodities
Precious
Metals
Oil & Gas
The sharp rise in oil prices following recent correction was a cause for concern. The Brent crude oil is currently trading above the $100 mark and may sustain at these levels for some time. With global policy makers go easy on the monetary policy, oil is likely to stay steady. Expect oil prices to remain firm.
Crude
Gold Gold prices continue to remain stable following Fed’s extension of operation twist and a positive outcome of EU summit. Any short term measures from either US or EU central banks is positive for gold as it improves the money circulation. The continuing ultra low fed fund rates and possibility of interest rate reduction from the ECB; and Fed willingness to other measures down the road to boost the economy shall only benefit gold. Expect gold prices to remain firm with a positive bias.
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
Real Estate Outlook - I
16
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
range
Commercial/IT
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
office spaces from investors
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
growing 8-10% every year for commercial
properties in Tier-II cities
Real Estate Outlook - II
17
Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
offices, call centers, super-market etc
Land
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming
expensive month on month. Interest from investors has
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
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Honest, unbiased advise
18
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Pedigreed Senior Management Team
19
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accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
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