Added Value Generated by Regional Climate Models

H. von Storch, F. FeserInstitute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany

22-26 January 2012 - 26th Conference on Hydrology, AMS 92nd Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA

Feser, F., B. Rockel, H. von Storch, J. Winterfeldt, and M. Zahn, 2011: Regional climate models add

value. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 92: 1181–1192

Climate = statistics of weather

The genesis of climate

Cs = f(Cl, Φs)

with

Cl = larger scale climate

Cs = smaller scale climate

Φs = physiographic detail at smaller scale

von Storch, H., 1999

“downscaling”

Model variance as a function of spatial scales. The rectangles show well and insufficiently resolved spatial scales of the global and regional model.

standard formulation large-scale nudging

Similarity of zonal wind at 850 hPa between simulations and NCEP re-analyses

large scales

medium scales

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

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DWD analysis

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Added value in reconstructions using spectral nudging

Improved representation of

• variability at medium scales.• effect of physiographic detail (coasts)• of sub-synoptic phenomena (polar lows, medicanes,

typhoons)• forcing fields for impact models (ocean waves, storm

surges)

Improved presentation of variability at medium scales

• NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM REMO• Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for

scales > 800 km)• Usage of German Weather Service (DWD) regional

analysis for a few years as reference to determine skill

• Considering ratios 2DWD/2

NCEP and 2DWD/2

RCM

• Determining mean spatial correlation patterns between DWD, NCEP and RCM representations, for different spatial scales.

DWD-analysis/ NCEP reanalysis DWD-analysis / regional simulation

Ratio of standard deviations of 2m temperature

DJF 1992 – 1999, at the regional scale, %Feser, MWR 2006

Positive values show added value provided by the regional model.

95% significant deviations are marked by a *.

PCC

DWD and NCEP

PCC improvement/ deterioration

REMO Nudge

Pattern correlation coefficients

[PCC, %]

PCC improvement/ deterioration

REMO Standard

Feser, MWR 2006

Improved presentation of effect of physiographic detail

• NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM REMO• Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for

scales > 800 km)• Usage of Quikscat-windfields (Q) over sea.• Determining Brier Skill score

B = 1 – (RCM-Q)2 / (NCEP-Q)2

for all marine grid boxes

QuikSCAT: Added Value - BSS

Open Ocean: No value addedby dynamical downscaling

Coastal region:Added Valuein complexcoastal areas

Winterfeldt and Weisse, MWR 2009

Wind Speed 1998: Distribution

a) Open Ocean: buoy RARH b) Coast: Light Ship Channel

Percentile-percentile plots (qq-plots) of wind speed:The 99 dots represent the wind speed percentiles in steps of 1 percent.

Winterfeldt and Weisse, MWR 2009

Improved representation of sub-synoptic phenomena

• NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM CLM• Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for

scales > 800 km)• Simulation of sub-synoptic phenomena• Polar lows in the Northern North Atlantic• Polar lows in the North Pacific• Medicanes in the Mediterranean Sea• Typhoons in the West Pacific

Density of polar low genesis

Genesis in RCM simulation constrained by NCEP reanalsysis

Bracegirdle, T. J. and S. L. Gray, 2008

Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008

Annual frequency of past polar lows

PLS: Polar Low Season (Jul-Jun) Zahn and von Storch, 2008

Set-up of multi-decadal simulation

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 1/ CLM 2.4.6

Initialised: 1.1.1948 finishing: 28.2.2006

spectral nudging of scales > 700 km

Projected changes in polar low frequency and vertical atmospheric stability

A2

C20

A1BB1

Zahn and von Storch, 2010

Differences of the area and time-averaged ice-free SST and T500-

hPa over the maritime northern North Atlantic as proxy for frequency of favorable polar low conditions (CMIP3/IPCC AR4)

North Pacific Polar Low on 7 March 1977(Chen et al., 2011)

NOAA-5 infrared satellite image at 09:58UTC 7th March 1977 Cavicchia and von Storch, 2011

Medicane of January 16, 1995

ECMWF analysis

CLM-COSMO, 10 km grid

Brier Skill Score between JMA best track data and NCEP, CLM 0.5°, and CLM 0.165°

> 0 : CLM closer to best track

0 : CLM and NCEP equally close to best track

< 0 NCEP closer to best track

SLP

10m Wind Speed

Improved representation of forcing fields for impact models

• NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM REMO• Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for

scales > 800 km)• 1948-2010 simulation• Wind and air pressure used to drive models of sea level

and circulation of marginal seas (not shown) for describing currents and sea level (North Sea “CoastDat”; not shown)

• Wind used to drive models of the statistics of surface waves (ocean waves) in coastal seas (North Sea).

Coastdat Application

• Dynamical downscaling to obtain high-resolution (25-50 km grid; 1 hourly) description of weather stream.- use of NCEP re-analysis allows reconstruction of regional weather in past decades (1948-2010)- when global scenarios are used, regional scenarios with better description of space/time detail can be downscaled.

• Meteorological data are fed into dynamical models of weather-sensitive systems, such as ocean waves or long-range pollution. Integration area used in HZG reconstruction and

regional scenarios

Red: buoy, yellow: radar, blue: wave model run with REMO winds

wave direction

significant wave height

[days]

[days]

Gerd Gayer, pers. comm., 2001

Annual mean winter high waters Cuxhavenred – reconstruction, black – observations

Interannual variability of mean water levels

(Weisse and Plüß 2006)

Added value …• … in medium scales. Medium scales are determined by

both the large scale dynamics and the regional physiographic details (Cs = f(Cl,Φs))

• More added value with large-scale constraint (spectral nudging)

• Little improvement over driving large-scale fields for SLP, which is a large-scale variable, but significant improvement for structured fields like 2 m temp or coastal wind.

• Dynamical downscaling works … - Large scales are hardly affected but smaller scales respond to regional physiographic detail.

• Present analysis refers to reconstructions, where we can compare the results with a “truth”. For scenario simulations other approaches are needed (e.g., big brother-type)