Early warning strategies in climate change impact

Hans Marvin (RIKILT –Institute of Food Safety)

International conference on Food Safety and Security under Changing Climate, Penang, Malaysia, December 6-7, 2010

The overall aim:

� To create a permanent network for international cooperation on food safety issues between Europe and ASEM.

This Network aims to:

� Promote European and Asian collaboration on food safety issues� Contribute opening up the European Research Area� Mobilise the European and Asian Research Communities to support

Communities and Asian foreign and development policies

� Develop common research agenda and initiate joint initiatives

SELAMAT network; some background

� Started as EU FP6 project in 2004

� Continued as sustainable network in 2008

EU-ASEM Food Safety Platform with the

following characteristics:• Direct access to top experts on many

expertise fields in EU and Asia• Influence in research agenda setting• Easy access to outcomes of EU frame work programs and

ASEM counterpart• Means to extend existing network• Discuss “sensitive information” informally

SELAMAT network; some background

Activities, training courses, workshops, joint research, exchange of personnel,……..

OPEN FOR NEW MEMBERS!

Outline of the lecture

� Effect of Climate Change on Food Safety� Systems to identify food safety risks at an early

stage� Reactive systems� Proactive systems

• Holistic principle• GEMIS

� Conclusions

Projected effects of Climate change

� Food production (due to elevated temperatures and increased CO2 levels)� Differences per region

• Temperate regions; an increase (e.g. Europe, Canada, China [5-12%])• (sub) tropical region; a decrease(e.g. India, Mexico, south-Africa, Ethiopia [21-29%]

� Fluctuations in food production and food prices� Diseases and plagues (shifting and new)� Food safety� Changing ecosystems � Employment� Migration

Changing temperature of land and sea in Europe

Projected temperature increase (land) in Europe

Increasing floods in Europe

Effect of Climate change on food safety

Most relevant climate factors1. Precipitation 2. Temperature (land en water)3. Drought4. Weather extremes 5. CO2 levels6. Floods

Examples of expected food safety problems

� Increase growth of weeds, plant diseases and effect of pesticides => risk of more residues

� Increased prevalence of natural toxins (mycotonins, phycotoxins (toxins of algua e.g. Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB), phytotoxins (plant toxins such as glycoalkaloids, pyrrolididine alkaloids)

� Increased contamination of surface water (e.g. heavy metals, PAHs, PCBs, etc. Katrina) => uptake by crops

� Increased bioavailability of contaminants (e.g. Hg with increasing temperature)

� Increase of animal diseases => increase use of veterinary drugs

� Increase of microbial infections as a consequent of increasing temperature (e.g. E. coli O157, Campylobacter, Salmonella)

� Growth of microorganisms in the fresh chain

Climate change :

New, higher levels or from other sources:

� Pesticides� Environmental contaminants

� Heavy metals, dioxins, PCBs, mycotoxins

� Veterinary drug residues in foods� Bacteria and viruses� Marine toxins

Potential food safety risks imposed by climate change

(non exhausted)

Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage

� Hazard based systems

� Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

� Exchange of information between nations� Searching for information

Reactive systems

Proactive systems

� Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment

� Holistic approach� Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

� Centralized system� Required by General Food Law 178/2002/EC

� Members: EU, EFTA, Commission (30 countries involved)

� Notifications

� “Alerts” of importance for other member states

• Actions can be taken

� “Information” that can be contained by member

� “Border rejections”� Weekly and annual reports on website

� Reported hazards are known

Reactive systems: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

https://https://https://https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/rasffwebgate.ec.europa.eu/rasffwebgate.ec.europa.eu/rasffwebgate.ec.europa.eu/rasff----window/portal/window/portal/window/portal/window/portal/

RASFF trend analysis (performed by RIKILT (risk assessors)

� Objective:� Can data be used for trend analysis?� Links between hazards and other parameters?

� Published research� Four-years study (Mid 2003 – Mid 2007)� Number of records processed: 11,430

� Updated database� Six years (Mid 2003 – Mid 2009)� Number of records: 17,537

• For mycotoxins: 5251 reports

Mycotoxin notification categories

RASFF, July 2003 - June 2009

8%

21%

71%

Alert

Border rejections

Information

RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports

Adapted from Kleter 2010

RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports

Adapted from Kleter 2010

Timeline (per quarter-year) of mycotoxin notifications

RASFF, July 2003 - June 2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2003

-320

03-4

2004

-120

04-2

2004

-320

04-4

2005

-120

05-2

2005

-320

05-4

2006

-120

06-2

2006

-320

06-4

2007

-120

07-2

2007

-320

07-4

2008

-120

08-2

2008

-320

08-4

2009

-120

09-2

# o

f n

oti

fica

tio

ns

Total hazards

Mycotoxin hazard

� Most of the reports (95%) referred to Aflatoxins and were found on nuts (74%), fruit and processed fruit (8%), and spices (6%)

Origin of mycotoxin-containing products

RASFF, July 2003 - June 2009

33%

18%9%

7%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

14%

Iran

Turkey

China

USA

India

Argentina

Brazil

Egypt

Ghana

Nigeria

Italy

Pakistan

Others (88)

Main productsIranIranIranIran:

pistachio

TurkeyTurkeyTurkeyTurkey:

hazelnut/ pistachio/ dried fig

China:China:China:China:

peanut/ groundnut

RASFF trend analysis: mycotoxin reports

Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage

� Hazard based systems

� Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

� Exchange of information between nations� Searching for information

Reactive systems

Proactive systems

� Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment

� Holistic approach� Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

EU: European Media Monitor (EMM) operated by Joint Research Centre (JRC)

� Publications collected, filtered & classified, presented & visualized, trend analysis => alerts

Reactive systems; search engines

http://emm.jrc.it/overview.html#explorer

Search engine; EMM as example (real time events in news)

Search engine; EMM as example (Med Sys; alerts)

Search engine/data source example: ProMED

Alerts in ProMED mail: human , animal and plant health diseases; example sugar beet diseases in UK ; fungus growth depends on temperature and humidity = > use of fungicides

Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage

� Hazard based systems

� Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

� Exchange of information between nations� Searching for information

Reactive systems

Proactive systems

� Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment

� Holistic approach� Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

� EU 6th FP: PERIAPT� EU 6th FP: SAFE FOODS; Workpackage 2� EFSA: EMRISK� Dutch project: Emerging Risks in the Dutch Food Chain

Look at influences inside and outside the food chain

Projects developing this approach for the early identification of foodborne risks:

Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach

Environment & EnergyScience &

Technology

Information &Communication

Government &Politics

Industry & Trade

Population &Social conditions

AgricultureHealth & Welfare

Economy &Finance

Food Chain(s)

Source: Wim Ooms VWA, 2006

Sectors influencing food production & food safety

Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach

� Increased production � increased disease pressure �antibiotic use � risk. Indicator: increased production. Source:FAO, EUROSTAT

� Increased small scale production � lack of knowledge �misuse � risk. Indicator: increased small scale production; Source: FAO

� More resistant strains � other antibiotics � new risk. Indicator: more resistant strains; Source: science programs

� Lack of international harmonised legislation � zero tolerance � risk.

Pro-active holistic approach (some examples)

Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach

Conclusions from the case studies

� In every case study influential sectors were identified. Most frequent influential sectors were:

• Science and technology• Human behavior• Nature and environment• Legislation & economy

� Many indicators (and related data sources) were identified, generic and case-specific

� Emerging risk systems based on holistic principle seem promisingbut need much more research

Pro-active holistic approach (examples)

Pro-active early warning systems: holistic approach

Systems to identify food safety risks in an early stage

� Hazard based systems

� Example from Europe: Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF)

� Exchange of information between nations� Searching for information

Reactive systems

Proactive systems

� Horizon scanning, foresight, risk profiling, vulnerability assessment

� Holistic approach� Early warning systems for Mycotoxins on wheat and maize (GEMIS)

Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM)

Projects at WUR:� To develop a system aimed at pro-actively

identifying emerging mycotoxins (and prevents them from becoming risks)

� Characteristics:� Anticipatory instead of responsive approach� Different from, but not a replacement of, current

systems� Approach may use indicators

Holistic approach

Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM)

Work performed in EU project MYCONET� Starting from Fusarium spp. related toxins� In European wheat based feed/food supply

chains� 12 key indicators selected for each stage

• Cultivation; transport and storage; processing� Consensus among expert panel� Semi-quantitative ranking of indicators� Potential interactions defined� Cultivation is the most important stage � Most indicators relevant for known mycotoxins, but …. some

additional selected• These might be of especial importance for EM

Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM)

Indicator (Cultivation stage) Total score (N=24) Median Average SD

Relative humidity/rainfall (air and soil) 216 10 9.4 1.0

Crop rotation 154 7 6.7 2.5

Temperature 145 8 6.9 2.5

Tillage practice 125 6 6.0 2.4

Water activity in kernels 118 8 6.9 2.9

Crop variety / Cultivars 107 5 5.4 1.8

Harvest conditions 88 4 4.9 2.2

Changes in composition of fungal populations 85 3 4.3 2.8

Pesticide/fungicide use 79 4 4.2 1.9

Plant health (stress factors) 60 3.5 3.8 2.4

Regional infection pressure 60 2 2.9 1.7

Awareness of food safety 28 2 2.5 1.6

Key indicators for EM in wheat cultivation

Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM)

Model development� Based on the key-indicators� Using data from information sources

� The model should handle� Different types of information

• quantitative and qualitative • technical and expert information

� Region specific information� Different levels of information detail (time, space)

How does it look?

� Maps of Europe

� Input maps for indicators (can be any relevant indicator)e.g. weather, wheat cultivar, storage quality, fungal species

� Modeling tool to assess EM occurrence, based on region specific indicator information

� Output maps for assessed occurrence of EM

� Scenarios (“what if”) can be added, e.g., regarding climate change, area grain, biofuel production

Identification of Emerging Mycotoxins (EM)

Geographic EM Identification System (GEMIS)

2

indicator1 maps

3

EM model

EM map

what if scenarios

databases

Demo GEMIS (1)Input:

Flowering dateOutput:

Prediction Mycotoxin level

Demo GEMIS: scenario analyses

Prediction of Mycotoxin levels at +2°C temperature & +3 mm rainfall

Conclusions

� Climate change will have an effect on food safety� Current early warning systems should be able to

identify an emerging food safety risk � Holistic approach to predict food safety risks

seems feasible but further research is need to develop systems based on this principle

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to thank:

� Dr. Ine Fels-Klerx� Colleagues at RIKILT and FBR� Colleagues at Wageningen University and

Researchcentre (WUR)� MYCONET partners

Thank you for your attention

© Wageningen UR

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