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Adaptation to Climate Change in the National Capital Region

Project Overview

Maia A. DavisMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG)8th Mid-Atlantic Regional Planning RoundtableMarch 30, 2012

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COG Overview Comprised of elected officials from 22 local

governments, members of the Maryland and Virginia state legislatures, and members of the U.S. Congress

Main policy committees: COG Board of Directors National Capital Region Transportation

Planning Board Metropolitan Washington Air Quality Committee Climate, Energy and Environment Policy

Committee Region Forward Coalition

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COG Climate Initiatives Background

COG Board created Climate Change Steering Committee (2007) National Capital Region Climate Change Report (11/08)

COG Board created CEEPC - Climate, Energy and Environment Policy Committee (2009) 2010-2012 Regional Climate and Energy Workplan (1/10)

Region Forward Compact adopted (2010) Foundation for COG’s efforts to build a sustainable

metropolitan Washington region Draws climate related goals from Climate Change Report

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EPA Smart Growth Implementation Assistance (SGIA) Program

EPA initiated the SGIA program in 2005 with three goals in mind: Support communities interested in implementing smart

growth policies; Create regional examples that can catalyze similar projects

in the area; and Identify barriers, opportunities and tools

EPA provides the assistance through a contractor team – not a grant. In 2010, COG applied to SGIA and was awarded technical assistance

to support adaptation efforts Contractor: SRA End Product: EPA Climate Adaptation Guidebook

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Objectives of the Climate Adaptation Guidebook

Increase understanding of the implications of climate change among planners, policymakers and officials in the Washington region

Provide tools to implement smart growth principles to improve regional resilience to climate change impacts

Focus on four sectors: water, transportation, land use and buildings

Storm surge in the Potomac and Anacostia using the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) Model (Source: National Hurricane Center)

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Project Timeline Timeframe

Milestones

10/10 SGIA Award Announced12/10 Technical Expert Panel identified pertinent regional

climate info.1/12-3/12 Educate COG Committees on adaptation and SGIA project3/11 NOAA lead Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks

workshop to review tools for risk and vulnerability assessment

1/11-5/11 George Mason students evaluate local govt adaptation knowledge

6/11-8/11 SRA Consultants conduct local and national policy inventory

7/11-8/11 COG conducts preliminary vulnerability assessment for four sectors

9/11 EPA, COG and SRA held four sector stakeholder workshops to identify challenges and share experiences

10/11 SRA delivers draft list of local approaches for guidebook12/11-1/12

Draft guidebook issued for stakeholder review

5/12 Final Guidebook

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Observed Trends Over the last century the average

temperature rose 3.3°F in DC, 1.9°F in MD, and 0.6°F in Virginia (NOAA).

The Potomac Estuary has experienced one foot of relative sea level rise (NCPC, 2008).

In the Mid-Atlantic major weather events increased 12-20% compared to the previous century (UMD, 2008).

Projections indicate that these trends will continue at an increased rate and lead to expanded riparian flood plains and coastal inundation zones and more frequent droughts, heat waves and record-setting events (IPCC, 2007; GCRP, 2009).

Streets flooded from the Potomac River in Old Town Alexandria, Virginia after Hurricane Isabel in 2003. (Source: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

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Anticipated Climate-Related Changes

Note: Reflect trends which have already been observed in recent past and are projected to continue with high confidence, except for drought frequency (medium)

Temperature Precipitation Variability

Severe Storms

Sea Level Rise

Higher average temperaturesMore frequent heat waves and days over 90° FFewer freezing days, and warmer nights relative to days

Precipitation concentrated into fewer eventsIncreased precipitation variabilityPossible increased frequency of drought

Increase in intensity of coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters

Sea level rise combined with local land subsidence and storm surges.

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Potential Impacts to Sectors

Transportation: more frequent travel disruptions and increased damage from severe events, change in infrastructure maintenance needs, and increased deterioration from buckling and expansion due to extreme heat or freeze-and-thaw cycles.

Buildings: increased damage from weather-related events; increased demand for emergency response; health impacts from flooding, storms, extreme heat, and more poor air quality days; potential for water restrictions due to drought; increase in cooling costs and small decrease in heating costs; possible changes in the lifetime of roofs and other structural materials.

Land use: expansion of flood-prone areas, flood plains, and coastal inundation zones; increase damage to natural areas from invasive species, flooding and heat waves; increase in damage to or strain on infrastructure, including transportation, water, energy, and wastewater.

Water: potential increased amount and/or frequency of sanitary sewer overflows and combined sewer overflows; change in infrastructure maintenance needs; flood risks to infrastructure; changes in water table that could affect septic fields; need for flood control systems; increased demand on stormwater management systems; possible reduced water supplies due to drought.

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Guidebook Organization

Plan for Climate Change Tools for developing a risk/vulnerability

assessment

Regional Approaches Local Approaches

Protect vulnerable areas from development Protect people and assets in vulnerable areas Encourage sustainable growth in appropriate, less vulnerable

areas

This map shows potential hot spot areas that could be inundated by projected sea level rise in the Mason Neck area of Virginia along the Potomac River. The area is currently primarily park and military lands. (Source: Northern Virginia Regional Commission)

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Local Approach Example: Survivability

Recommendation: Incorporate survivability strategies into new and existing critical infrastructure such as police stations, fire stations, hospitals, schools, and emergency shelters

Survivability = ability of buildings to maintain habitability without relying on external utility systems for power, fuel, water, or sewer services, as well as being better able to withstand floods, severe weather events, and temperature extremes.

Implementation strategies may include: highly energy efficient building combined with daylighting and natural ventilation, on-site renewable energy

Langston High School/Langston-Brown Community Center in Arlington, VA incorporates passive solar, operable windows for ventilation in the event of power failures and large rainwater cisterns. (Source: USGBC)

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Project Outcomes and Next Steps Provided an opportunity to educate a broad

range of stakeholders on climate adaptation Identified the need for additional information

on climate change impacts in the region Spurred sectors to continue

adaptation conversation Climate impacts symposium

planned (5/21/12)Identifying and discussing vulnerabilities in small groups at NOAA Roadmap for Adapting to Climate Risks Training on March 3, 2011 at COG.

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http://www.mwcog.org/environment/climate/adaptation.asp

Maia A. Davis202-962-3227mdavis@mwcog.org

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