Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan Region,

Canada: Climate Scenarios & Hydrologic Modeling

Stewart Cohen, Adaptation & Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada

Wendy Merritt & Younes Alila, Department of Forest Resources Management, UBC

Mark Barton & Bill Taylor, Pacific & Yukon Region, Environment Canada

Presented at Scenarios Workshop, University of WashingtonSeattle, April 30, 2003

Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan—Study Framework, 2002-

04

Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management

Hydrology Model SelectionAdvantages Constraints

DHSVM Fully distributed, explicitly represents

topography vegetation processes

Maximum recommended pixel size of 30m 30m

Detailed spatial and temporal inputs

UBC Watershed Model

Can be applied to individual tributaries of Okanagan Lake

Minimal input requirements

Semi-distributed conceptual model

simplistic representation of vegetation processes, and topography

VIC Routinely linked with Global Climate Change models

applications include the Columbia Basin, of which the Okanagan River is a tributary

Minimum recommended pixel size of 1/8th degree

this resolution is too coarse to adequately distinguish between many of the tributaries entering Okanagan Lake

  ID Station Elev(m)

Record

1 1120633

Bankier Chain Lake 1020 74-88

2 1123360

Hedley 517 70-01

3 1123750

Joe Rich Creek 875 70-93

4 1123970

Kelowna A 430 68-01

5 1123984

Kelowna East 491 80-97

6 1123992

Kelowna PC Burnetts 350 70-92

7 1124112

Keremeos 2 435 79-94

8 1124980

McCullogh 1250 87-96

9 1125223

Mt Kobau Observatory 1862 66-80

10 1125865

Osoyoos West 297 70-01

11 1126077

Peachland Brenda Mines 1520 70-90

12 1126150

Penticton A 354 60-01

13 1127800

Summerland CDA 455 60-95

14 1128551

Vernon 556 71-94

15 1128580

Vernon CR 482 70-97

16 1128958

Winfield 503 74-01

17 1126784

Falkland Spanish Lake 823 59-81

18 1126785

Fa1kland Salmon Valley 635 75-84

Winter Season (DJF) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5

Mean Temperature Change (oC)

Pre

cipi

tatio

n C

hang

e (%

)

Summer Season (JJA) 2050, Lat=50o Lon=120o

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

0 1 2 3 4 5

Mean Temperature Change (oC)

Pre

cipi

tatio

n C

hang

e (%

)

Climate Change Scenarios for 50 °N,

120°W

CGCM2 A21

CGCM2 B21

CSIROMk2 A21

CSIROMk2 B21

HadCM3 A22

HadCM3 B22

Legend

Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 A2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2

Whiteman Ck - CGCM2 B2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2

Whiteman Ck - CSIRO A2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2

Whiteman Ck - CSIRO B2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2

Whiteman Ck - HADLEY A2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2

Whiteman Ck - HADLEY B2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec

Ave

rag

e D

aily

Dis

char

ge

(cm

s)

Qbase Q2020 Q2050 Q2080

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1-Jan 1-Mar 30-Apr 29-Jun 28-Aug 27-Oct 26-Dec

Ave

rag

e D

aily

Sn

ow

Mel

t (m

m) Mbase M2020 M2050 M2080

Whiteman Ck: CSIRO A2

Vaseaux Ck

65.32%

7.49%

8.52%

8.43%

7.71%

0.02%

0.00%

0.32%

0.00%0.42%

0.00%

1.77%

Lake area

Young forest

Old forest

Recently logged

Selectively logged

Agriculture

Recreation activities

Barren surfaces

Urban

Rangelands

Mining

Wetlands

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20ca2 s50ca2 s80ca2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CGCM2 B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ula

ted

Dis

char

ge (

cum

ecs)

base90 s20cb2 s50cb2 s80cb2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sa2 s50sa2 s80sa2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - CSIRO B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20sb2 s50sb2 s80sb2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY A2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20ha2 s50ha2 s80ha2

Vaseaux Ck (above Dutton Ck) - HADLEY B2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-Jan 1-Mar 1-May 1-Jul 1-Sep 1-Nov

Sim

ulat

ed D

isch

arge

(cum

ecs)

base90 s20hb2 s50hb2 s80hb2

Stakeholder views on adaptationEngaging dialogue to identify adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin

Cohen & Kulkarni (2001), & Interim Report of 2002-04 Study on UBC Web site: http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications

Preferred adaptation options among the stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water licenses) preferred over institutional measures

Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders identified the high cost of dams, associated impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in restricting development as possible implications of their adaptation choices.

adaptation dialogue is just beginning...