adaptation strategies for fisheries management in northeastern minnesota, usa

Adaptation Strategies For Fisheries Management In

a Northeastern Minnesota Forest

Dean Paron

Area Fisheries Supervisor

MN Department of Natural Resources

Finland Fisheries Area

MN DNR Finland Fisheries Area

• 561 lakes– 26 stream trout lakes

– 3 Lake Trout lakes

– Walleye, Northern Pike, Perch, and some Smallmouth Bass

• 2,178 miles of rivers and streams – 1,912 miles of trout streams

(551 trout streams)

• About 160,000 acres of the BWCAW

Finland Area

MN DNR Finland Fisheries Area

• 1,830 square miles

(over 1.1 million

acres)

• Southern edge of

boreal forest

• 77% publicly owned

(mostly forested)– 51% USFS

– 14% State of MN

– 11% County

– ~1% Nature Conservancy

In winter of 2012/13 a Climate Change

Vulnerability Assessment on fisheries was

performed in the Finland area.

General agreement on global patterns Disagreement on local patterns and trends

Global climate change ≠ regional or local

Minnesota State Climatology

Office to the Rescue

Information provided by Dr. Kenneth A Blumenfeld

In Northeast MN Winter is warming 10x

faster than summer

SeasonTemperature

Metric

Avg. change

per decade

since 1895

Avg. change

per decade

since 1970

Winter

(Dec -

Feb)

Seasonal Avg. + 0.36°F + 1.00°F

Summer

(Jun -

Aug)

Seasonal Avg. + 0.14°F + 0.10°F

Length and Magnitude of 10 F Temperature

Season in NE MN (Duluth)

0

0.5

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1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

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T D

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w 1

0F

1956-1975

Length and Magnitude of 10 F

Temperature Season in NE MN (Duluth)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

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ly A

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1956-1975

1976-1995

Length and Magnitude of 10 F

Temperature Season in NE MN (Duluth)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

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0F

1956-1975

1976-1995

1996-2015

In NE MN the number and magnitude of

heavy and extreme rainfall events

increasing

• Increases in the frequency of 1, 2, and 3-

inch rainfalls recorded annually

Extreme rainfall: “Mega” rain events (6” + over

1000 sq mi) are increasing (7 out of 10 highest in last

15 years)

Average change in annual

precipitation (per decade)

1895-2015 1970-2015

A “hydrothermal deficit” and stress noted in

northeast MN forests.

Clark, James S., et al. "The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States." Global change biology (2016).

Confidence Hazard Expectations beyond 2025

Highest

Extreme cold Continued rapid decline

Extreme rainfall Unprecedented events

expected

High Heat waves Increases in severity, coverage,

and duration expected

Moderately

High

Drought Increases in severity, coverage,

and duration possible

Moderately

Low

Heavy snowfall Large events less frequent as

winter warms

Moderately

Low

Severe

thunderstorms &

tornadoes

More “super events” possible,

even if frequency decreases

Confidence that climate change will impact common

Minnesota weather/climate hazards beyond 2025

Based on our assessment we

determined that we needed to develop

an area action plan for trout.

WHY THE INITIAL FOCUS

ON TROUT?

• High Sensitivity/Low Adaptive

Capacity

• Coldwater Trout Streams and Lakes

highly influenced by Climate in NE

• Modeled Projections

• Scenario planning was used to consider

plausible futures and identify resilient and

strategic decisions.

• Identified Several Critical Data Gaps

– Temperature/D.O. profiles for trout lakes

– Connectivity data (Fish barriers, Culvert

inventory)

– Creel surveys (Angling information)

– Long term continuous stream data

(Geomorphology, Biology, Water Quality, Hydrology)

Why is it important?

Spring

Summer

Late summer

Extreme summer

In Finland the duration and extent of summer stratification

was unknown on most trout lakes

2013 Area began studying oxythermal habitat on trout lakes

http://waterontheweb.org/under/instrumentation/russ.html

Stream Trout Lakes

Two Harbors

Beaver BaySilver Bay

Finland

Isabella

Hwy 61

Hwy 1

Lake Trout Lakes

Creating a

temperature chain

Temp logger

chain with HOBO

Water Temp Pro

loggers

Below-

surface buoy

(placed ~3’

below

surface)

Cement

blocks

Close-up view of HOBO Water

Temp Pro loggers

Logger Placement – Stratified Lake

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 10 20 30 0 10 20 30

Temp profile

Logger placement

Interpolated profile

0 10 20 30

10 Loggers 5 Loggers 3 Loggers

Temperature (°C)

Dep

th (

m)

The type of interpolated data that can be

generated from temp chains/weekly profile data

The type of interpolated data that can be

generated from weekly DO profile data

Summer squeeze

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

06/01 06/21 07/11 07/31 08/20 09/09 09/29 10/19

Dep

th (

m)

Date

Temp. @ 20˚ C

DO @ 4mg/l

68 F

3-D mapping of Temperature / Dissolved oxygen

(Oxythermal habitat)

In 2015 Lake County SWCD along with other partner (DNR,

USFS, Lake County DOT) began a complete inventory on all

culverts within Lake County to assess for fish passage

Data Gap – Culvert Inventory

Data Gap – Creel information on trout lakes

• Fishing pressure and angler satisfaction

unknown

– Limitations of traditional creel, $$$

– Evaluation of trout management limited to

lake surveys

– Are angler use and satisfaction goals being

met? Is angler use changing with Climate

Change?

• Initial Success monitoring angling

activity using trail cameras

Data Gap – Creel information on trout lakes

Camera Deployment

Time lapse

• Identify line-of-sight

• Installed with panning mounts

• Hourly instantaneous counts during daylight

Access Trail• Inconspicuous, but clear view

• perpendicular to trail

• FAP trigger speed

• Daylight motion detection only

Image Analysis: Access Trail Cameras

Self-survey kiosks

Data Gaps – Continuous Steam Data

Concerns that would not be able to understand changes within landscape.

Previously, stream surveys were set on 3, 5, and 10 year cycles.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Adults/mi

Year


Concerns that would not be able to understand changes within landscape.

Previously, stream surveys were set on 3, 5, and 10 year cycles.


Ten Streams Chosen for Continuous Monitoring Program

3 streams that modeled predictions have indicated to be

highly resilient to climate change

3 streams that modeled predictions have indicated to

highly susceptible to climate change

4 streams that have already been sampled yearly since

2008

Continuous Sampling Data will

include:• Hydrology

• Geomorphology/Fish Habitat

• Water Quality

• Biota

Fish community

Invertebrates



Temperature

November 12, 2014

MN DNR Operational Order 131

– It established broad requirements for staff

to consider climate change in agency

planning, operations, communications

and training.

Finland Area Specific Adaptive

Management Strategies

1. Emphasis on Sustainable Management of Forested Watersheds

2. Natural Channel Design for restoration projects (allow for river to adjust to changing climate)

3. Strategic Emphasis on Riparian Protection (temperature and overall water quality)

4. Increased monitoring for invasive species

5. Developing partnerships (USFS, Trout Unlimited, etc) and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes

6. Strategic removal of fish barriers

Verry, E. S. (2000). Society of American Foresters. In Society of American Foresters (Ed.), LAND FRAGMENTATION AND

IMPACTS TO STREAMS AND FISH IN THE CENTRAL AND UPPER MIDWEST (pp. 16–20). Washington, DC: SAF Publ 01-

02

Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management of Forested Watershed

• “Using LIDAR to Assess the Effects of Open Lands and Young Forest on

in-channel stream erosion for North Shore Tributaries”Tom Hollenhorst MED-EPA

John Jereczek MN DNR

Use of Lidar in Forest Assessment

DNR-Fisheries Staff

Adaptation Strategy 1: Sustainable Management Forested Watershed

LiDAR Watershed

Open Landscape

Analysis

Facilitates condition

Assessment at any point

Along watershed

Allows for improved analysis

Of DNR land contribution

to watershed condition

Helps ID stands for

potential watershed condition

influenced coordination


Restore river processes which allows for

change in conditions

Adaptation Strategy 2: Use of Natural Channel Design in Restoration

Photo by Brandon Spaugh, North State Environmental


Restoring connectivity to flood plain is critical

Photo by Brandon Spaugh, North State Environmental


Restoration Site

One Mile

Downstream

-strategic purchases of easements

• 8,684 total acres of

fisheries lands

• 8,398 acres of Aquatic

Management Areas

(fee title owned)

• 286 acres (16 linear

miles of stream) of

conservation

easements

Adaptive Strategy 3. Emphasize riparian protection

Adaptive Strategy 4. Increased monitoring for invasive species

Incorporated long term and strategic monitoring for

spiny water fleas and zebra mussels


Change in Thermal guilds

Guild Lower good

growth

Upper good

growth

Upper

lethal

Optimum

Coldwater 9 (48°F)

(6-12)

19(66°F)

(16-21)

23 (73°F)

(22-27)

15(59°F)

(12-19)

Coolwater 16(61°F)

(13-18)

28(82°F)

(28-29)

30(86°F)

(28-32)

25(77°F)

(24-26)

Warmwater 20(68°F)

(18-23)

32 (90°F)

(31-35)

35(95°F)

(32-36)

29(84°F)

(27-32)

Stefan et al. 2001 TAFS 130:459-477

Temperature °C (°F)



Largemouth Bass Concerns

• How will increasing/expanding largemouth bass

populations affect walleye?

• Can we predict which lakes are most likely to

have increasing/expanding largemouth bass

populations?


Largemouth Bass within state expansion


Largemouth Bass Range Expansion

in Arrowhead Lakes• Fisheries Research Study (MN

DNR)– Bethany Bethke

– 2015-2017

• How do bass populations affect walleye?

• Can lakes likely to have bass in near future be predicted based on changes in:

– Temperature?

– Vegetation?

• 9 Study Lakes– 3 without bass

– 3 with recently detected largemouth bass

– 3 with historical largemouth bass

Study Lake Centers.csv Events

<all other values>

Population Type

None

Recent

Historical


Growing degree day evidence

• Graph at left shows:– Modeled cumulative growing degree

days for each lake from 1980 to 2016

– Red dashed line is threshold for largemouth bass success

• Hansen et al. In Press. Global Change Biology

– Dark/light blue lines are lakes without bass

• One lake (Wilson) was not included in modeled data

– Graph shows lakes currently without bass are experiencing >2,200 growing degree days more frequently

• Have potential to support largemouth bass in the future

• Highlights importance of understanding interactions between species

Lake Superior Coldwater

Coalition • TU, Northshore Steelheaders, Lake Superior Steelhead

Association, Izaak Walton League, Cook, Lake, and St. Louis County, DNR, Arrowhead Flyfishers, USFS

• Mission statement of the Lake Superior Coldwater Coalition is: Maintain, protect, and restore healthy cold water ecosystems with relatively stable flows and a diversity of habitat for fish and wildlife to enhance our quality of life.

• Coldwater Coalition is in a prioritization process, plan on arriving with a list of top 20 watersheds in the Lake Superior Basin

Adaptation Strategy 5: Developing partnerships and Prioritization of Streams and Lakes

Partnered with Trout Unlimited to

Reclaim the most resilient Trout Lakes


Other

Watershed

Efforts:

Coordination

WRAPS

MN Water

Quality

Framework


https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CAcQjRw&url=https://redlakeriver.wordpress.com/water-quality-study/&ei=XvsJVazjFZCVyATz1IDoAQ&psig=AFQjCNFslHDQjQ3boQOrnmhxSzjTPyXDYQ&ust=1426803795154025

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Adaptive Strategy 6: Strategic removal of fish barriers

Sawmill Creek Designated Brook Trout Stream

Before After

Use of geomorphic processes for sizing culverts

Windy Creek

Adaptive Strategy 6: Strategic removal of fish barriers

Questions?

Long Term continuous data will allow us to do a prospective power

analysis – Determine number of years to monitor to detect a

difference from background variability

Figure 6. Number of years needed to detect various changes(as percent change) in abundance (#/mi) of adult (age 1+)brown trout in selected SE MN streams for a two-samplet-test design given an alpha=0.05 and a Beta=0.10(i.e., a 90% chance of detecting a true differencebetween population means).

No. of Years (Post-2006) Needed to Sample

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Dete

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Perc

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han

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fro

m Initia

l M

ean

Abun

da

nce

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

South Branch Whitewater River

Gribben Creek

Winnebago Creek

Trout Run

Garvin Brook