act canada tdm summit dr. quentin chiotti climate change programme director and senior scientist...

ACT Canada TDM Summit

Dr. Quentin Chiotti

Climate Change Programme Director

and Senior Scientist

[email protected]

www.pollutionprobe.org

From Impacts to Adaptation to TDM: Highlights from Two

National Assessments


MISSION STATEMENT

Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit

organization that:• Defines environmental problems through research• Promotes understanding through education• Presses for practical solutions through advocacy

Pollution Probe is dedicated to

achieving positive and tangible

environmental change.16th year for the Clean Air Commute


Presentation Outline• Responding to climate change

– The case for adaptation

• The impacts of climate change in Canada– From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a

Changing Climate 2007– Human Health in a Changing Climate: A

Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity

• Climate change and air quality: Lessons from Ontario


RegionsUnmanaged and

Managed EcosystemsSectors

Vulnerable Groups

Responding to Climate Change

Climate ChangeTemperaturePrecipitation

Extreme Weather EventsSea Level Rise

Mitigation (Emission Reduction)

Adaptation

Impacts

and

Effects

AdaptiveCapacity

Vulnerability


Linkages Between Climate Change and Air Pollution

• Chemical/atmospheric interactions– Some air pollutants are GHGs– Aerosols known to off-set global warming

• Actions that directly reduce energy use will lower emissions of GHGs and CACs – co-benefits

• Some actions to reduce GHGs will lead to an increase in CACs and vice versa– Diesel and pollution controls

• Some actions can reduce emissions and enhance adaptive capacity• Synergistic health effects from heat stress and air pollution


“Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable” (WGII SPM)

Even in regions with high incomes, some people, areas and activities can be particularly at risk from climate change (Synthesis Report)

Global context – 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel

on Climate Change (2007)

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (WGI SPM)


What is adaptation to climate change?

Adaptation involves making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate- to moderate harm (reduce negative impacts) or take advantage of new opportunities.


Vulnerability

• Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including variability and extremes.


Adaptive Capacity

• The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

Impacts and Adaptation: Two National Assessment Reports

http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/[email protected]: [email protected]

Linking climate change to health – Canadian efforts

Table of Contents

Introduction: Health in a Changing Climate

Assessment Methods

Impacts of Climate Change on Water, Food, Vector and Rodent-borne Diseases in Canada

Air Quality, Climate and Health

Canadian Vulnerabilities to Natural Hazards and Extreme Weather

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Canada’s North

Vulnerabilities, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in Canada

Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity


• The report reflects the advances made in understanding climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada.

• It highlights key issues facing each region of the country (Northern Canada, Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies and BC) in a policy-relevant manner.

• It provides a concise, credible up-to-date source of information that will inform adaptation decision-making.

• There are three main products:

Synthesis

Highlights

Full Scientific Report


Key Findings• The results from the assessment provide sound

scientific evidence that Canada’s climate is changing and that the impacts from of a changing climate are already evident in every region of the country.

• It is anticipated that climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, while presenting new risks and opportunities, especially for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.

• While Canada has a relatively high capacity to adapt, this capacity is unevenly distributed between and within regions and populations.


The impacts of changing climate are already evident in every region of Canada

Reduced glacier cover

Permafrost degradation

Increased coastal erosion

Earlier onset of spring

Reduced snow cover

Changing animal

distributions

Increased plant productivity

Reduced ice cover

Lower lake and river levels

Increased coastal erosion


Lead authors:Quentin Chiotti (Pollution Probe)Beth Lavender (Natural Resources Canada)

Contributing authors:Ken Abraham (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)John Casselman (Queen’s University) Steve Colombo (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)Philippe Crabbé (University of Ottawa)Bill Crins (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)Rob Davis (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Al Douglas (MIRARCO) Paul A. Gray (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Lawrence Ignace (Environment Canada) Chris Lemieux (University of Waterloo) Rob McAlpine (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Martyn Obbard (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)Charles O'Hara (Ontario Ministry of Transportation) Jacqueline Richard (MIRARCO) Carrie Sadowski (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources)

Daniel Scott (University of Waterloo) Mark Taylor (AMEC Earth and Environmental)Ellen Wall (University of Guelph)


Climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, and present new risks and opportunities, with significant implications for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.

Exacerbate current climate risks• Reduced water quality & quantity• Increasing demand for water• Increased frequency and

magnitude of extreme events• Increased heat waves• Increased smog episodes• Increased risk of diseases and

pests• Increased risk of forest fires

New risks and opportunities• New diseases and pests• New challenges to management

of protected areas• New opportunities for more

profitable crops and tree species


Annual Change: Mean Temperature and Precipitation


Health Effects Estimates

• OMA (2005) study – estimated 5,829 premature deaths

annually – rising to 10,061 by 2026– 16,807 hospital admissions– 59,696 emergency room visits– 29,292,100 minor illness days

• Health Canada & Environment Canada (2005) study– 2,900 premature deaths in 4 Ontario cities

• Toronto Public Health (2004) study– 1,700 premature deaths and 6,000

hospital admissions annually


Number of hot days above 30C

Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent

Emission increase by 20% by 2050 and 32% by 2080. The annual total number of poor O3 days would increase 4-11 and 10-20 respectively.

Air pollution mortality will increase by 20-25% and 30-40% by 2050 and 2080

Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple

Background ambient levels of O3 could increase by 40 ppm 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Victoria

Calgary

Winnipeg

London

Toronto

Quebec

Fredericton 2080-2100

2041-2069

2020-2040

1961-1990


• Synthesis and Highlights available on-line: http://adaptation2007.nrcan.gc.ca

– Download pdfs– Read author bios– Order copies of the report

• Full report released on March 7th 2008• Questions? Contact NRCan at: [email protected]

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